After another successful day on Saturday, we’re back to the Sunday grind. This is my favorite day to play because we have almost every team on the slate. That gives us tons of players to pick between, and I love having an allotment of options to pick from! We have a few offenses in fantastic spots and some pitchers in even better situations. With that in mind, let’s start with the arms!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is a challenging day to get a read on the pitching pool. It provides us with numerous excellent options, but many of them carry a fair share of risk. Some of these guys have been bombarded recently, but they’ve also presented us with too many gems to fade them! There’s only one true ace out there, and he’ll be featured first! With that in mind, let’s start with the 2021 NL Cy Young!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Corbin Burnes (MIL) at STL

With so many volatile arms on this slate, Burnes is the best option on the board. The right-hander has a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP since 2020, totaling a 2.18 ERA and 0.87 WHIP this year. Those numbers are impossible to fade, scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts. He crushed the Cardinals last season, too, providing a 1.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9 rate in their four matchups.

Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. CHC

Cease has had two horrific outings over the last two weeks but facing the Yankees and Red Sox will blow up anyone’s ERA and WHIP. If you look at his other six starts, Cease has a 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 12.7 K/9 rate. Those are some of the best numbers in fantasy, and the Cubs are nowhere near those scary AL East teams. That has him entering this matchup as a -170 favorite, with the Cubbies projected for just 3.5 runs.

GPP Recommendations:

Sonny Gray (MIN) vs. KC

Many people might forget this, but Sonny was a Cy Young candidate not that long ago. The right-hander has recaptured some of that form recently, allowing two runs or fewer in all six of his starts this year. That has led to Sonny slinging a 2.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP so far this season. He’s also got a 12.7 K/9 rate across his last four starts, making him way too cheap against a 28th-ranked Royals offense.

Tyler Anderson (LAD) at ARI

Anderson had one massive dud against Philly last week but has been unstoppable side from that. Despite allowing seven runs in that game, the southpaw still has a 3.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this year. Those numbers should be easy to duplicate against the Diamondbacks, with Arizona ranked 22nd in OBP and 23rd in wOBA. That was on full display when Tyler tallied 26 DK points against Arizona just last week!

Top Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Zach Davies)

• Road (Chase Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAD -190

This is just sad. The Dodgers have regularly been scoring double-digit runs lately, leading the league in runs scored, OBP and OPS. That would be rough news for any pitcher, but the soft-tossing Davies has been one of the worst arms in baseball this season. He’s got a 4.81 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this year, which is sadly better than his three-year averages. He’s already faced the Dodgers twice this year, accruing a 9.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

Houston Astros (vs. Marco Gonzales)

• Road(T-Mobile Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/HOU -150

Anytime a lefty faces the Astros, they need to be avoided. Marco has faced the division rival 12 times throughout his career, pitching to a 4.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. That seems likely to continue with his recent form, compiling a 1.51 WHIP so far this year. Some of these guys have some amazing BvP numbers against Gonzales as well, and we’ll dive into those later on.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Zack Greinke)

• Home (Target Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/MIN -195

Greinke and Davies faced each other earlier in the week, and it was an offensive showcase. These two soft-tossers have nothing left in the tank, with Zack posting a 7.32 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last four starts. His advanced numbers are even worse, and he’s unlikely to slow down a Minnesota lineup with a ton of menacing bats.

Core Studs

• Mookie has been one of the best hitters in baseball for most of his career, and he’s one of the hottest bats right now. The MVP candidate has a .339 AVG, .422 OBP, .717 SLG, and 1.138 OPS over his last 33 games played. Good luck, Davies!
• Martinez has also been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last month, providing a .440 AVG, .490 OBP, .670 SLG, and 1.161 OPS over his last 23 games. That’s scary since he has even better splits against lefties, and Bruce Zimmermann could be in trouble against a team averaging nearly 10 runs per game for the last week.
• Bregman has made minced meat of lefties throughout his career. He’s flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against them throughout his career and has done damage against Marco. In fact, Alex has a .313 AVG, .500 SLG, and .833 OPS in 33 at-bats against him.
• Marte has always been a different hitter from the right side. He’s got a .382 AVG, .649 SLG, and 1.074 OPS against lefties since 2020. We mentioned that we like Anderson in this spot, but he’s not a shutdown pitcher. In 23 at-bats against Tyler, Ketel has collected a .450 AVG, .522 OBP, .950 SLG and 1.472 OPS.
• Abreu has struggled at times this season, but it’s just a matter of time before he gets rolling. This pricing is just bizarre to see, and he could get going against a pitcher with a 4.71 ERA.

Value Plays/Punts

• Don’t look now, but Walsh is starting to get hot. The southpaw smasher has a .295 AVG, .667 SLG, and 1.012 OPS over his last 21 games played. He’s also abused right-handers throughout his career, totaling a .381 OBP and .970 OPS against them since 2020. Facing Jose Berrios would usually be terrifying, but the Blue Jays righty has a 4.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
• Arraez will never jump off the page with his power, but this is one of the best bets to get on base. The utility man has a .349 AVG and .450 OBP this season which is amazingly not far off of his career averages. He also gets to hit from the left side and should have success against a soft-thrower like Greinke who can’t strike anyone out.
• Cruz has always been one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties. His career OPS is just shy of 1.000 against them, and he’s starting to get hot. Nelly is hitting .348 over his last 19 games en route to an .888 OPS. We’re not concerned about him facing Freeland’s 4.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
• Rios has become a major part of this Dodgers lineup against righties. He’s getting time in the absence of Max Muncy, maintaining a .592 SLG and .900 OPS against righties this year. It’s always expensive to stack Dodgers, but using Rios could save you some salary.

Hitter Strategy

There are more value bats on this slate than usual. That’s a scary thought because Sunday slates always give us random lineups. That means you should be able to stack your lineup however you please, with the Twins, Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, and Red Sox look like the best options on this slate. Feel free to mix and match these teams to build around the arms mentioned above.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.