MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (5/15)

Saturday went smoothly, and we’re going to keep that momentum rolling here. This is one of the toughest slates I’ve seen because it’s one of the best pitching pools since Opening Day. We’re going to do our best to keep the pitching recommendations down to four, but we’ll show you all of the guys in good spots too. Picking hitters will be critical because of that, so let’s go ahead and start with the arms.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

I can’t remember a slate with so many good pitching options! It took me 15 minutes to even pick between these four because there are about seven other arms that we like. Some of those guys include Carlos Rodon (vs. STL), Carlos Carrasco (vs. SEA), Robbie Ray (at NYM), Alek Manoah (at TB), Nestor Cortes ( at CWS), Triston McKenzie (at MIN), and Joe Ryan (vs. CLE). I’ve never seen a slate like this, and it means you’re going to have to focus on the hitting more than the pitching. Almost everyone will get production no matter who they choose, but we’ll try to decipher the best values of the bunch! With that in mind, let’s start off with a struggling arm in a great spot!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Brandon Woodruff (MIL) at MIA

There’s no doubt that Woodruff has been terrible, but it’s just a matter of time before his ERA and WHIP split in half. The right-hander had a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP between 2020 and 2021, striking out 302 batters across 253 innings. That’s simply one of the best arms in baseball, and pitching against Miami in Marlins Park is the way to get him back on track. Miami ranks bottom-10 in hard-hit rate and exit velocity and will finish there in runs and OPS. The oddsmakers agree, making Woodruff a -160 favorite in a game with a 7-run total.

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) at OAK

Sandoval’s change-up is one of the best pitches in baseball, and it’s turned him into a stud. The left-hander has a 2.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the opening month of the year. That’s the guy we saw across the final two months of last season, and it should continue against Oakland. The A’s rank dead-last in OBP, OPS, and xwOBA! Patty has been pristine in his previous two matchups with Oakland, allowing two runs across 10.2 innings while striking out 10 total batters.

GPP Recommendations:

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. BAL

Skubal just had the best start of his career earlier in the week, throwing seven scoreless innings against the A’s. It’s not difficult to do that to Oakland, but Tarik has at least 38 FanDuel points in four of his last five starts. The southpaw is slinging a 0.73 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate in that stretch. That should continue against a team like Baltimore, with the Orioles ranked 24th in K rate, 22nd in OPS, and 21st in wOBA. They’re certainly not going to hit in a spacious park like Comerica either, with Tarik tallying a 3.33 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 9.1 K.9 rate there since 2020.

Jose Quintana (PIT) vs. CIN

People who started watching baseball three years ago might not realize that Quintana used to be a stud. The left-hander has been a disaster for a few years now, but it looks like he’s recaptured some of that Chicago form from the past. Jose has allowed three runs or fewer in all six of his starts this season, amassing a 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 9.6 K.9 rate across his last three starts. He did that damage against the Dodgers and Brewers, and Cincinnati is nowhere near those guys. The Reds rank bottom-5 OBP, OPS, and xwOBA this season.

Top Lineup Stacks

Houston Astros (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/HOU -200

There is no way that Corbin does well against the Astros. Not only is Houston a Top-5 offense in nearly every metric, but they enter this matchup winning almost every game in May! That’s bad news for PC, with Corbin collecting a 6.06 ERA and 1.74 WHIP this season. That’s the guy we’ve seen since 2020, and it’s unlikely that Corbin will get anywhere near a quality start in such a tough matchup.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Daniel Lynch)

• Home (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/COL -140

We had the Rockies at home on Saturday, and we’re going right back to the well. This is one of the best offenses in Coors Field, with that hitter’s haven surrendering the most runs ever since its existence. They also lead the league in batting average and look to be improved no matter where they hit. It’s not like they have a tough matchup here, facing Lynch and his 5.24 career ERA and 1.54 career WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Elieser Hernandez)

• Road (Loan Depot Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIL -160

We had some hope that Elieser would find his groove this season, but he’s going the opposite direction. The righty has a 6.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through his six starts, allowing 16 total runs over his last four starts. That certainly won’t hold against a modest Milwaukee lineup, with the Brewers ranked sixth in BA, second in runs scored, and third in SLG. They’re also one of the few high-upside stacks with some cheap options, which only makes them more enticing.

Core Studs

• The Stros are going to slaughter Corbin, and Bregman will be one of the primary reasons why. The third baseman is flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against lefties throughout his career. That makes him tough to fade atop this lineup, particularly with Alex accumulating a 1.088 OPS over his last four fixtures.
• Cron has been clobbering ever since he signed with Colorado, tallying a .284 AVG, .369 OBP, .544 SLG, and .914 OPS since 2021. His numbers have been even better when he’s at home or when he faces lefties, providing an OPS north of 1.000 in those circumstances since the signing.
• Houston will be our favorite stack of the day, so we have to use one of their hottest hitters. Altuve has.447 OBP and 1.265 OPS over his last nine games played. He’s also been smashing against southpaws, amassing a 1.094 OPS against them this season.
• We had Whit in here on Saturday, and we’re going right back to the well. This guy has gotten off to the worst start of his career, but it’s lowered his price way too much. We’re still talking about the league leader in steals last year, and it’s just a matter of time before he recaptures the role as the stud we’ve become accustomed to. Hitting in Coors Field against a subpar lefty is an excellent way to start that!
• Rowdy has been captivating for the Brewers this season. The stocky first baseman has a .340 OBP, .653 SLG, and .993 OPS over his last 12 games. Almost all of that damage has come against righties, with Rowdy registering a .552 SLG and .860 OPS against them this year.

Value Plays/Punts

• Not many of these Houston bats are affordable, but Gurriel is probably the best value of the bunch. The slugger is off to the worst season of his career, but he’s always killed left-handers. In fact, Yuli has a .307 AVG, .536 SLG, and .896 OPS against them since 2020.
• Vogelbach has been hitting atop Pittsburgh’s lineup at times this season, making him a good value. It’s easy to understand why when looking at his splits, with Danny donning an .887 OPS against righties this season. Hunter Greene is a great matchup, too, with the flame-thrower flaming out with a 7.62 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.
• Meadows is a borderline Triple-A player when he faces lefties, but he’s a borderline All-Star against righties. In fact, Austin has accumulated a .341 OBP, .500 SLG, and .841 OPS against them since 2020. That should be easy to duplicate against this insufficient Baltimore staff.
• Grichuk is well on his way to a monster year in Colorado. This guy already had a career ISO north of .200, which should continue in Coors. Hitting in this environment is even better when looking at Randal’s splits, producing a .423 AVG, .577 SLG, and 1.021 OPS against lefties this year.

Hitter Strategy

You can find all the value bats you want. We just mentioned a few, but these lineups are littered with players that are way too cheap. We haven’t even discussed that many of these teams will rest players, which will open up even more value for some bats. That means we’ll ride these $9K pitchers and pair them up with bats from teams like the Cardinals, Mariners, Athletics, Rangers, Astros, Yankees, Angels, and Mets.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.