It’s a monstrous slate on Friday night. There are 13 games of action, creating a massive player pool to sort through for selections. Further, the pitching options are loaded. Thankfully, there are a few hitter-friendly situations as well.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
On FanDuel, selecting an ace from the table is the strategy for all game types. At DraftKings, doing the same is the move. However, a pair of bargain options are excellent SP2 picks for each game type.
It’s a monstrous slate on Friday night. There are 13 games of action, creating a massive player pool to sort through for selections. Further, the pitching options are loaded. Thankfully, there are a few hitter-friendly situations as well.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
On FanDuel, selecting an ace from the table is the strategy for all game types. At DraftKings, doing the same is the move. However, a pair of bargain options are excellent SP2 picks for each game type.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (HOU) at SEA
Verlander is in the midst of a vintage campaign in his return from Tommy John surgery. According to FanGraphs, in eight starts totaling 51.2 innings, he's spun a 1.22 ERA, 2.53 xERA, 0.72 WHIP, 4.8 BB%, and 26.3 K%.
Tonight, he opposes an offense he's tied up twice. First, Verlander held the Mariners scoreless in eight innings on April 16. Then, he held them to two runs in 6.2 innings on May 4. Additionally, the betting info is superb tonight. The Astros are -200 favorites, and the game's total is a tiny 7.0 runs, per Betting Pros. Therefore, gamers should anchor their cash teams with Verlander.
Jon Gray (TEX) at OAK
Gray's season has been a stop-and-start affair, missing time with a blister and exiting a start early with knee discomfort. Nonetheless, his four starts since returning from the Injured List (IL) have been promising, even if his 4.26 ERA has left something to be desired. A look under the hood shows a 3.62 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA, 22.9 K%, and 28.4 CSW% that are all more than gamers can usually get in Gray's salary range.
Finally, he has a great matchup and favorable betting data. The A's are 29th in wRC+ (75) with a 24.5 K% versus righties in 2022. Understandably, the game's total is only 7.0 runs, and the Rangers are -140 favorites. As a result, Gray should rightfully be the most popular SP2 in cash games.
GPP Recommendations:
Shane Bieber (CLE) at DET
Bieber dominated the Tigers in his most recent start. He held them to three runs (two earned) with 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Save for a messy turn against the Blue Jays on May 7, Bieber has pitched like an ace. He's also been on a decent strikeout groove, punching out six or more in five of his last six starts.
The matchup is outstanding for Bieber tonight, not even accounting for his dominance against the Tigers last time out. Detroit is dead last in wRC+ (73) against righties with a 24.6 K% in 2022. So, Bieber is a good bet to carve them up again. Finally, at the salary discount that he offers from Verlander, he's a perfect GPP pick to chase the ceiling while jamming an extra elite bat into the lineup.
Alex Faedo (DET) vs. CLE
Faedo has gotten his first taste of the bigs this year and hasn't been overwhelmed. In four starts totaling 21.0 innings, he's had a 3.00 ERA. Sadly, Faedo's ERA estimators haven't been as nifty.
Regardless, Faedo hasn't tap danced around big-league hitters, walking only 7.0% of them. Additionally, while his 16.3 K% doesn't jump off the page, the rookie righty's slider gives him a legitimate dominant pitch.
Faedo has had a 20.2 SwStr% on his slider, coaxing hitters out of the strike zone on the pitch at a 41.8% clip. Wisely, he's thrown his best offering 31.7% of the time, ramping it up to a single-game high 34.9% in his last start. Faedo has pitched five or more innings while yielding two runs or less in each of his four starts. If he matches his work to date, he'll be worth his small salary as an SP2 at DraftKings.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.0 Runs/HOU -200
Chris Flexen has surprisingly had success against the Astros this year. Regardless, he's not the caliber pitcher who should continue that trend. Flexen has had a 4.98 ERA in eight starts with worse ERA estimators. Thus, the Astros should prove the third time is the charm tonight.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -150
The honeymoon is over for Trevor Rogers' breakout 2021 season. He's faceplanted this year to the tune of a 5.20 ERA, 4.98 xERA, and 1.49 HR/9. The lefty's most recent start was a disaster against these Braves. Atlanta hung five runs on him in only four innings, reaching the seats three times. Obviously, even great starters can have an off night. So, more importantly, the Braves have crushed lefties this year, with many of their hitters having an extensive track record of thriving against them.
- Road (Truist Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIA +130
Ian Anderson burst onto the scene in 2020. However, his production has slid since then. This year, he has had a ho-hum 4.07 ERA. Still, his ugly 11.0 BB% and below-average 17.1 K% have been the most eye-catching. Walking too many batters and not striking enough out is a recipe for a meltdown. Thankfully, the Marlins can punish him, as eight hitters on their active roster have had at least a 108 wRC+ against righties since 2019.
- In his career, Yordan Alvarez has smashed righties for a .375 OBP, .304 ISO, and 160 wRC+.
- Manny Machado is a lefty-killer. Since 2019, in 431 plate appearances with the platoon advantage, he's amassed a .399 OBP, .289 ISO, and 161 wRC+.
- Kyle Tucker rakes with the platoon advantage. Since 2019, he's had a .365 OBP, .253 ISO, and 148 wRC+ in 684 plate appearances.
- MJ Melendez has gotten off to a fast start in his rookie campaign, muscling up for a .213 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Gleyber Torres has had at least a 107 wRC+ every year in his career, reaching at least a 120 wRC+ in his second-worst campaign. Overall, he's had a .246 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- Adam Duvall is strictly a tater-chasing punt. Since 2019, he's had a .237 ISO and 14 homers in 271 plate appearances against lefties.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Houston's offense is the cream of the crop tonight. However, Atlanta's offense isn't far behind. So, investing in both is a good move tonight. Finally, the Marlins are a GPP stack that might be off the radar.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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