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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: Max Kepler, Sheldon Neuse, Nelson Cruz (2022)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: Max Kepler, Sheldon Neuse, Nelson Cruz (2022)

We have made it another week through the MLB season, and there have been some great weeks and some rough weeks. This weekly column will help highlight some hot and cold players or risers and fallers for fantasy purposes. Some players are already rostered in many places, so trades may be in order, and other players may be widely available, making a potential waiver wire claim in the cards. So this week, I am highlighting some lesser rostered players on the rise and some heavily rostered players that are falling over the past weeks. So let’s see some of the risers and fallers for fantasy baseball Week 4 (4/25-5/1).

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Risers

Taylor Ward (OF – LAA)

Ward may be the hottest hitter in baseball. He has hit safely in all seven games this week, with four home runs and seven total extra-base hits. Ward hit nearly .500 with a .650+ ISO and an OPS over 1.500. Ward was straight up mashing, and his contact quality supported his success with a 25% barrel rate and near 50% hard-hit rate. Ward can’t hit this well the rest of the season, but he appears to be an offensive talent and a great fantasy asset. He continues to lead off every day for the Angels while Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell platoon with the last outfield spot. If Ward is somehow not rostered in your leagues, make a point to add him immediately.

Max Kepler (OF – MIN)

Kepler had quite the week for the Twins, hitting safely in four of six games with six extra-base hits, four being home runs, and nine RBI. Kepler only struck out 12% of the time with a .200 BABIP, making the week a solid success. But it gets better as Kepler was barreling the ball over 25% of the time with a hard-hit rate approaching 60%. Kepler will have his ups and downs as he has never showcased excellent batting average skills, but the power that he could play. Kepler hit 19 home runs last year, and from 2017 to 2019, he hit 19-36 home runs. Kepler should be rostered in deeper leagues going forward.

Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS – SD)

The platoon days may be coming to an end for Kim, which makes his fantasy value increase in a big way. He was platooning with C.J. Abrams most of the season, but with Abrams’s poor production, Kim has enjoyed a near everyday role at either shortstop or somewhere else around the infield. Before going hitless on Sunday, Kim had hit safely in all four games this week with two home runs, three doubles, and seven RBI. Kim barreled the ball 25% of the time with a 50% hard-hit rate. He has a 10.1% walk rate on the season with a sub-20% strikeout rate and a .292 ISO. Everyday playing time could make Kim an elite fantasy option, and this past week may be a little glimpse of what’s to come.

Austin Hays (OF – BAL)

The Orioles offense has been scuffling, but at least one bat has been hitting, and that is Hays. Before going hitless on Sunday, Hays hit safely in four of five games this week with four extra-base hits and, most impressively, a sub-5% strikeout rate. In addition, Hays saw the ball well, and it showed a 6.7% SwStr and nearly 85% contact rate. Hays has an 11% SwStr rate and 77% contact rate on the season, so some regression is likely to come, but this past week was a positive and something fantasy managers can look to roster going forward.

Sheldon Neuse (2B/3B – OAK)

With a hit and a walk on Sunday, Neuse hit safely in four of five games this past week. He had a home run and even threw in a few stolen bases. Neuse benefitted greatly from a .455 BABIP, but a 58% hard-hit rate can’t be overlooked. This wasn’t a one-week wonder with Neuse either. He has hit safely in nine of 12 games for a .360 average. Neuse had three extra-base hits with three stolen bases over that stretch. This may not be sustainable all season for Neuse, but for now, I will ride out the hot streak and roster him in 12-team or deeper leagues, especially with a nine-game week on schedule the following week.

Fallers

Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)

I believe we can all agree the prospect glow has worn off for Kelenic. After a sub-par 2021, there was optimism heading into 2022, which has not happened yet. This past week he only started three games, and he only collected one hit, a 50% strikeout rate, and a 32 wRC+. The whole season has gone just as poorly for Kelenic as he is hitting .148 with a 39.7% strikeout rate and a 61 wRC+. There is a chance that Kelenic may be sent back down at any time, and if he stays in the bigs, he is not worth rostering in most leagues.

Max Muncy (1B/2B/3B – LAD)

Muncy entered the 2022 season with a torn UCL but chose not to have surgery and just rehab his injury. He had a decent spring training, leaving many optimistic that he would be fine entering the season. Well, so far, not so good for Muncy. He is hitting .136 with a .136 ISO and 84 wRC+. Muncy is at least still walking 20% of the time, but things aren’t going well other than that. That continued this past week as he only hit safely in two of five games with a .063 ISO and 47 wRC+. Muncy was walking 20% of the time again, but the overall production is still less than ideal. Muncy can always bounce back, but I would be majorly concerned if I have been rostering Muncy this season.

Nelson Cruz (DH – WAS)

Many have been waiting for father time to take Cruz down, which may be happening now. Cruz went 0-5 on Sunday in a game the Nats scored 11 runs. On the week, he had two hits, neither being an extra-base hit. Cruz is hitting .155 with two home runs and no other extra-base hits on the season. He is only barreling the ball 8.8% to go with a 41.2% hard-hit rate, which is well below his typical numbers. There is plenty of time for the 41-year-old to break out of his slump, and his xStats point to some positive regression, but for now, things are not looking great for Nellie.

Marcus Semien (2B/SS – TOR)

Semien is coming off an MVP caliber 2021 season but is off to a horrible start with his new team, the Rangers. He has played 21 games thus far and has zero home runs, two stolen bases, and a .157 batting average. This past week, Semien hit safely in two games for a .087 batting average and a -11 wRC+. That was not a typo, a negative wRC+. Additionally, Semien is only barreling the ball 4.5% of the time with a 23.9% hard-hit rate which resembles his previous seasons in Oakland. It is a horrific start to the season and an even worse week for one of the more prominent free agents this past season.

Bobby Dalbec (1B – BOS)

Dalbec is off to a rough start this season, hitting only one home run while hitting .147. The bright side is Dalbec is only striking out 30.7% of the time, which is down from his 34% last year and his 42% the year before. He only had two hits this past week with a .000 ISO. If Dalbec is not hitting for power, he is in big trouble when playing time. That playing time also took a hit this past week when the Red Sox brought Franchy Cordero back up, and he started a game immediately versus an RHP. Dalbec’s production is falling quickly, and if it continues to falter, he will not be viable in any fantasy format.


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