You got four wins from your starting pitchers if you followed our advice last week. That’s great news because wins can be so hard to get.
Let’s take a look at the Week 4 results. Elieser Hernandez‘s outing hurt on Wednesday, but we should still believe in him because he has that xERA of 3.81. That’s almost three runs lower than his bedeviled 6.66 ERA.
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) W 1, QS 0, ER 1, K 3, BB 1, IP 5
- Dakota Hudson (STL) W 0, QS 1, ER 3, K 4, BB 2, IP 6
- Elieser Hernandez (MIA) W 0, QS 0, ER 5, K 5, BB 3, IP 4
- Adrian Houser (MIL) W 1, QS 0, ER 4, K 6, BB 1, IP 5
- Tyler Anderson (LAD) W 1, QS 0, ER 2, K 7, BB 1, IP 5
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) W 1, QS 0, ER 1, K 5, BB 2, IP 5
Total: W 4, QS 1, ER 16, K 30, BB 10, IP 30
Now here are some suggestions for Week 5. If there is a theme to be found, it’s with a couple of newcomers to our streaming possibilities (one on Tuesday and one on Friday). We’re looking for a couple of good outings from unexpected places.
A quick reminder of the ground rules: I must choose a starter every day, even when I don’t think it’s a good idea to stream a pitcher. I must use pitchers rostered at or below 30% in Yahoo leagues.
*At publication, we use probable starters listed on CBS Sports on Saturday, May 7th.
Monday, May 9
Austin Gomber (SP – COL) at SF 9%
I’m going with Gomber today. Hernandez has the better matchup against Arizona, but he’s struggled in his last few outings. Before Saturday evening’s game, San Francisco had only scored ten runs in the past week, and Colorado had scored twenty-seven. Oracle Park can be good for a pitcher, too. I’m also looking at Gomber’s 4% decrease in FB% and a 3% increase in GB% in the first month. Coupled with the 35% CSW in his previous start against the Nationals, I’m praying for a window of opportunity here.
Other options: Elieser Hernandez (SP – MIA) at ARI 7% or Michael Pineda (SP – DET) vs. OAK 9%
Tuesday, May 10
Jakob Junis (SP – SF) vs. COL 2%
The starters that I would prefer here are slightly outside of my required 30% rostership or less. You might prefer Jameson Taillon (37%), Brad Keller (31%), or Madison Bumgarner (35%). In his previous outing, Taillon was good against Toronto, and Bumgarner was entranced by an ump who massaged his hand and looked deeply into his eyes. But who can I choose? I’m staying at Oracle Park and testing out the new Giants project, Jakob Junis. I was interested enough to draft him in a very deep dynasty league. In his two starts this season, he’s pitched to a 58.3% in GB%, and his new changeup is fueling a 16% SwStr%. Let’s fly under the radar today and hopefully impress our fellow managers with a decent pickup.
Other options (above the threshold): Brad Keller (SP – KC) at TEX 31% or Madison Bumgarner (SP – ARI) vs. MIA 35%, or even Jameson Taillon (SP – NYY) vs. TOR 37%
Wednesday, May 11
Martin Perez (SP – TEX) vs. KC 6%
Martin Perez looked great in his previous battle (at PHI for 7 IP allowing 0 ER). Most managers will tell you that they’ve been fooled by Perez before. It’s the well-known “two-pitch starter” problem. If he can’t throw one pitch to great effect in an outing, hitters will remove it from their worries and sit on the other offering. But he has changed something, though who knows how well it will work or for how long? It’s the sinker usage (he’s throwing it 10% more). In the early going, it has resulted in an extremely high GB% (above 70%), but as I say, if it’s an off day, he could hurt us. Streaming is no picnic.
Other options (above threshold slightly): Glenn Otto (SP – TEX) vs. KC 4% (added to pitch mix, may be useful in certain matchups for a time) or Adrian Houser (SP – MIL) at CIN 33%
Thursday, May 12
Tyler Anderson (SP – LAD) vs. PHI 30%
If I had to choose a day to avoid streaming, I would avoid Thursday as of right now (Saturday). If pressed, I’m putting Anderson in against the Phillies for all the same reasons as last week. He increased his cutter and changeup usage with an xBA of .179 against the off-speed stuff. He has cut down on walks. If the Dodgers let him pitch longer, he may be helpful.
Other options (again, above threshold): Steven Matz (SP -STL) vs. BAL 47%
Friday, May 13
Spencer Strider (SP – ATL) vs. SD 8%
There is a Lord of the Rings reference to be made here, and the nerd in me will avoid it. Today for the first time, Strider was listed as a probable starter next week. I’m intrigued. He hasn’t been on my league’s radar because he’s a middle reliever who isn’t providing a clear path to Wins or Saves. But his velocity touched nearly 99 mph in his previous relief outing against Milwaukee, where he went four innings and struck out eight batters. His 12.96 K/9 (coupled with too many walks) might result from his bullpen role. I’ve marked him as an elite reliever, but let’s hope the elite moniker can transfer to the starting role.
Other options: Drew Smyly (SP – CHC) at ARI 8%
Saturday, May 14
Michael Lorenzen (SP – LAA) at OAK 38%
This is my one cheat day. Let’s take one of the better-scoring offenses early in the year. Let’s also assume the man with the huge pitching repertoire who managed a shutout into the 9th inning on May 1st against the White Sox. Granted, he only struck out two batters in that game. There is some luck here, certainly, with the nearly 80% LOB% and the .232 BABIP. But the GB% is up. I’m also curious to see that he’s allowing fewer ropes. The LD% is a paltry 8.6%. Let’s see if he can keep it going against a weaker lineup.
Other option: Bruce Zimmermann (SP – BAL) at DET 19%, and though it’s beyond the threshold, you could start Chris Paddack (SP – MIN) vs. CLE 41% and consider holding him if the outing is strong.
Sunday, May 15
Rich Hill (SP – BOS) at TEX 5%
Rich Hill recently experienced COVID symptoms, and he was placed on the IL. He didn’t test positive, according to several reports. At this point, Boston assumes he’ll play today, but keep an eye on it. Rich Hill was dominant in his outing against the Angels, one of the better offenses in early 2022. But we aren’t sure how often he’ll go five innings. The Rangers are nearly last in runs scored, and the crafty veteran may have enough tricks up his sleeve to keep the team in check. The only problem is that Boston is near the bottom in runs scored as well, so even if he goes five, it may be tough to get the Win. If the alternate option below is available in your league, it may provide a better chance for a Win.
Other option: Baily Ober (SP – MIN) vs. CLE 40%
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