Two weeks ago we streamed pitchers to a sub-1.50 ERA, and this week we managed a 3.18 ERA. Not bad. We even got a few Wins. In Week 4, streaming becomes more difficult as many of our beloved streamers have been rostered by pitcher-starved managers. This week Drew Rasmussen is the two-start highlight.
Here’s last week’s results. We publish on Sunday, so I don’t know how our Sunday matchup turned out.
- Michael Lorenzen (LAA) W 1, QS 1, ER 0, K 3, BB 4, IP 6
- Zach Eflin (PHI) W 1, QS 1, ER 1, K 3, BB 1, IP 6
- Michael Pineda (DET) W 0, QS 0, ER 4, K 2, BB 0, IP 5
- Jameson Taillon (NYY) W 0, QS 0, ER 2, K 4, BB 1, IP 4.2
- Elieser Hernandez (MIA) W 1, QS 0, ER 3, K 5, BB 1, IP 5
- Miles Mikolas (STL) W 0, QS 1, ER 2, K 7, BB 0, IP 7.1
Total: W 3, QS 3, ER 12, K 22, BB 7, IP 34
Remember that I must use starters rostered at or below 30% in Yahoo leagues. This can make it a little tougher, but it also makes it more convenient for you. Many of these guys will be on your waiver wire. Here’s another unwritten rule that I’m finally going to write: I will always choose a guy. Every day. In case, for whatever reason, you absolutely need to stream someone.
Here we go!
*At publication, we use probable starters listed on CBS Sports on Saturday, April 30th.
Monday, May 2
Drew Rasmussen (TB) at OAK 24%
He has a two-start week, so if you can pick him up and hold him for both starts, do it. On the one hand, many managers avoid Rasmussen because Tampa Bay might limit his innings. Last year he worked primarily in relief and didn’t get a five-inning start until August 24. On the other hand, he pitched five innings four more times in September. Even though he went three innings against the Cubs in his last outing, he has already recorded five innings or more in two of his four starts. He seems to have ditched the changeup this year and added a cutter, which has kept hitters to a .125 BA, along with his slider, which has kept hitters to a .138 BA. Don’t ask about his other two pitches. The best I can say is that he has only shown the curveball 4% of the time. He’s got a good matchup.
Other options: none
Tuesday, May 3
Dakota Hudson (STL) at KC 17%
It’s still a little early in the season to pick on specific teams for being the lowest run-producers, but here it goes anyway. The Angels and the Phillies are the top two, but the Royals and the Tigers are the bottom two. Kansas City is also at the bottom in home runs. Here is Hudson’s ERA from the last three games from oldest to most recent (7.71/3.95/2.75) and his WHIP (1.43/1.17/1.02). I realize that the opponents went from the Brewers to the Reds to the Diamondbacks, but it’s worth gambling on a solid matchup with a pitcher who may be settling into his season.
Other options: Michael Pineda (DET) vs PIT 10% and Bruce Zimmerman (BAL) vs. MIN 13%
Wednesday, May 4
Elieser Hernandez (MIA) vs ARI 9%
This is a tough day. If you don’t have to stream, then I recommend avoiding the midweek matchups. Some of the more comfortable pitchers still don’t offer enough confidence. Austin Gomber (COL) is home, so let’s avoid. Chris Flexen (SEA) has Houston, so let’s avoid. Hernandez is the least worrisome, except his fastball has been very…hittable. Players are mashing it to the tune of a .323 BA. And while his slider is considerably better at a .217 BA against, hitters are currently slugging .478 when they do make contact. Some of it is bad luck. His xFIP is 4.34 and his SIERA is 3.73. He has faced the Braves, Phillies and Angels. Maybe Arizona will be a different story.
Other option: Jose Quintana (PIT) at DET 2%
Thursday, May 5
Adrian Houser (MIL) vs. CIN 18%
The best option for the Thursday slate (in this analyst’s opinion) is Houser. He’s managed to pitch through some of the underlying warts, like an increasing BB%. Before last year, he hovered around an 8-9% rate, but it started to balloon in 2021 to 11%. He’s at 11.5% through his first four games. If there is one thing I don’t like in a streamer, it’s free passes. He’s sporting a 2.53 ERA to start the season, and Cincinnati is struggling. As a team, their slash line is .206/.279/.309. They have an OPS of .588, and the only team behind them in that category is Arizona.
Other option: Let’s leave it.
Friday, May 6
Tyler Anderson (LAD) at CHC 24%
I was trying to choose between Anderson and Paddack today. Paddack has the easier matchup. The Cubs have been strong enough this year. They’re currently eight in hits and ninth in runs produced. Paddack has the easier matchup. But c’mon, gang! It’s the Dodgers! They do stuff. Anderson has increased his cutter and changeup usage and is getting lots of groundballs. The changeup is the most successful. Hitters have an xBA of .179 against it, and they whiff over 51% of the time. He’s not walking a ton of hitters, either. I was watching to see if he could get to five innings in his previous outing, and he did. And the Dodgers can always give us a Win. Let’s take him for a spin.
Other option: Chris Paddack (MIN) vs OAK 30%
Saturday, May 7
Drew Rasmussen (TB) at SEA 24%
If Rasmussen has done well this week, he may move beyond 30% rostered and we won’t get a chance to use him again. Heck, maybe you’ll even want to keep him. We’ll see. Here’s his second start of the week, so if you held him from our Monday recommendation, remember that advice was based on his outing against this same Seattle squad. He went six innings in that game and struck out nine hitters. All the same reasons apply, but if something happened in Monday’s Oakland game to make you wary of using him, go with one of the other options below. Lorenzen has done well on one of the best offenses early in the season, and Lynch has shown more strikeout potential and control with his slider and change this year. Of these three options, Lynch has the better matchup.
Other option: Michael Lorenzen (LAA) vs WAS 19% or Daniel Lynch (KC) at BAL 7%
Sunday, May 8
Daulton Jefferies (OAK) at MIN 6%
If you must stream today, then Jefferies is probably the best option based on our criteria. This is a contact pitcher who will not give us a lot of strikeouts, but he has pitched to a 3.26 ERA to start the season. He seems to get the best results on his fastball, changeup and curveball. According to Baseball Savant, the xBA on those pitches hovers around .200 or lower. What’s even better, it seems very difficult to hit these three pitches for power. If he spends too much time on his cutter and sinker, the opposite might happen. He has escaped serious damage so far, but the xSLG sits above .500 for both of these offerings. Let’s hope he can mix it up just right.
Other option: none
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