George Pickens was a ballyhooed five-star prospect (per 247sports), coming from an acclaimed program at Hoover High School in Alabama. He was the fifth-best wide receiver prospect, with only Garrett Wilson (second) from this draft class ranking above him. Pickens had 16 offers from major universities. He visited Auburn, LSU, Miami, and Tennessee before deciding on Georgia.

Pickens hit the ground running at Georgia as a freshman. He saw a 14.9% target share while leading the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. For a player with exceptional high school pedigree, this validated his talent level, as Pickens notched an 18.5 breakout age (96th percentile per PlayerProfiler.com). He earned a spot on the All-SEC Freshman team for his performance. His 2.64 Yards per route run (per PFF) wasn’t mind-blowing, but it was a promising start to what could have been a beautiful analytic profile.

Sadly, after Pickens’ freshman season, his profile becomes a muddied evaluation. In 2020, while he did see his target share increase to 18.0%, his peripheral and efficiency numbers dipped. He saw his catch rate drop to 65.4%, his Yards per route run slump to 1.93, and his yards after the catch per reception fall from 3.8 to 3.1. While preparing for what could have been a bounce-back campaign this past season, Pickens tore his ACL in spring practice. He made it back for the season’s final four games, but he clearly wasn’t 100%. From a macro perspective, his status as a blue-chip high school prospect and his productive freshman season at Georgia foreshadowed future success that never came. Is he a player who will see the bounce-back come to fruition as a pro? Could he be the second-round prospect who booms as one of the draft’s best values, or does he continue the letdown foretold by his 2020 season? Let’s discuss.

George Pickens Draft Profile

* Recruit Stars via 247Sports

Draft Projection: Second round

George Pickens College Statistics

George Pickens Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Pickens gets pegged as a deep threat because of his height, speed (71st percentile), and career yards per reception (17.8, 85th percentile), but that’s not the area of the field where he succeeds at the highest rate. While Pickens can stretch a defense (we’ll discuss that later), he’s more inconsistent in this area. Pickens is a better route runner and separator in the short and intermediate areas of the field. This can be seen below, as he’s in the 60th percentile or higher in Yards per route run at 0-19 yards, but when he goes deep, he’s not nearly as efficient as other FBS wide receivers.

*Only 9 targets

Pickens displays loose hips and suddenness in his breaks on short and intermediate routes. He has no issues making a corner look silly on a comeback. This is impressive considering his size, but he has no problem sinking his hips and gearing down. NFL teams should look to utilize him in these areas more and not pigeonhole him as a vertical threat.

The problems that Pickens run into come on vertical routes. His play strength can be inconsistent at best. He can flash dominant and #arroganthands, plucking the ball out of the air on one snap. His upside can easily be seen when watching his 2020 game against Missouri. He flashed strength through contact with good deep-ball tracking despite a corner hanging all over him and being flagged for interference. Pickens has also put plenty of reps on film of losing battles to smaller corners. These catch point lapses led to a 47.1% contested catch rate overall (per PFF) and a 23.5% rate on deep targets. His play-strength shortcomings also rear their ugly head with his paltry 3.5 yards after the catch per reception in college (per PFF).

Some of these situations he finds himself in are a product of his route running. Pickens relies on his impressive physical gifts, but he still needs to add nuance to his routes and consistently stack corners. He has no problems getting separation early or off the line on many snaps, only to find the corner inside or on him like glue. His 2020 contest against Alabama was a perfect example of this. He was held to seven targets, five receptions, and 53 scoreless yards. While he is fast for his size, Pickens doesn’t possess an elite second gear to outrun corners.

While Pickens has some of the best raw gifts in this draft class, he’s still far from a finished product. He’s a home run swing for an NFL team, entering the league with a roller-coaster profile that leaves more questions than answers after his 2021 injury. This could result in a swing and a miss if Pickens can’t connect the rest of the dots.

Player Comp

Faster Brian Hartline (floor) with top-shelf X potential (ceiling)

Brian Hartline entered the NFL with a slightly slower 40 time but an equal burst measurement. Hartline struggled going deep, with 33.0, 21.4, and 47.0 passer ratings (per PFF) during his first three years in the NFL before evolving his game. Pickens’ raw tools are better than Hartline’s, which gives him a superior ceiling. But currently, Pickens wins closer to the line of scrimmage, as did Hartline to begin his career.

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

George Pickens arrives in Steel City teaming with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and recent draft pick Calvin Austin. Pickens had an up and down career at Georgia but flashed big-time talent. With Johnson staring down the barrel of free agency after this season and Claypool’s inconsistent play, Pickens could be the team’s long-term X receiver. He’s worth taking a shot on at the end of the first round or beginning of the second on upside alone.

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