The NFL Draft is always one of the most entertaining events in sports, and this year was no exception. Between six wide receivers drafted in the first round, a multitude of trades, and its overall unpredictable nature, this draft had all the qualities we were looking for.
It may not have had the quarterback intrigue at the top that we normally like. Still, after many quarterback trades and overall star player movement, this draft was the ultimate icing on the cake for what may go down as the best offseason ever. Well, at least until next year.
For fantasy managers, the NFL Draft also served another key purpose; we finally got to attach draft capital and landing spots to the skill position prospects. For example, Malik Willis went from being seen as a lock to be drafted in the first round, to falling to the end of the third round. This will see his stock drop significantly. On the other hand, a prospect such as James Cook, who was the third running back off the board, will move up notably on draft boards.
How the NFL evaluates players ultimately matters the most from a fantasy perspective, as players need the opportunity to produce. We now have that answer, which allows us to make much more informed decisions in rookie drafts.
For those unfamiliar with these types of drafts, this is the time when dynasty teams get to replenish their roster with the young talent coming out of the NFL Draft. Sure, you can make trades to acquire young assets, but it’s tough to trade for a prospect considered to be of blue-chip caliber. Especially if you’re in a rebuilding phase, it is paramount that you hit on your early rookie draft picks, similar to the actual NFL Draft.
How a rookie draft will shape up depends significantly on the format of your league. Today, I want to focus specifically on 2 QB/Superflex formats. This format places a significantly greater emphasis on the quarterback position, and for an obvious reason: there are only 30 starting quarterbacks, making the replacement-level value incredibly minimal. Add in the fact that quarterbacks have a significantly larger lifespan and peak than other positions, and it’s clear that your Superflex dynasty runs entirely through your options at that position.
With only one quarterback going in the first round, the rookie draft landscape in Superflex leagues is shaping up to be remarkably different this year. I utilized the FantasyPros mock draft simulator to analyze this, running a 12-team Superflex rookie mock draft from the #5 spot. Whose stock is on the rise after the draft? Who should you be targeting in your rookie drafts? Let us find out!
All stats via Pro Football Focus
Round 1
- 1.01 – Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
- 1.02 – Drake London (WR – ATL)
- 1.03 – Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT)
- 1.04 – Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
- 1.05 (My Pick) – Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)
- 1.06 – Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
- 1.07 – Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
- 1.08 – Malik Willis (QB – TEN)
- 1.09 – Chris Olave (WR – NO)
- 1.10 – Isaiah Spiller (RB – LAC)
- 1.11 – Skyy Moore (WR – KC)
- 1.12 – Matt Corral (QB – CAR)
Right now, I would be stunned if we saw three quarterbacks go in the first round in typical Supeflex rookie drafts. That may have been the expectation before the draft, but with only Kenny Pickett being drafted in the top-two rounds, it’s easy to make the case that only he should be going in the first round currently. Still, without much rushing upside and a limited track record of success, his fantasy value is likely capped, making it difficult for me to recommend taking him over any of the other six players that went in the top seven in this mock draft.
Isaiah Spiller’s spot in this mock draft aligns with where he is currently being drafted in rookie drafts, and I’m not sure that should be the case. He’s an early declare from the SEC who has a stable production resume, but he also had a 27th percentile speed score. Most importantly, though, he fell to the fourth round. That is concerning, considering draft capital was supposed to be the edge that had him as the clear third-best running back in this class. The lack of explosiveness and draft capital points to him being an acceptable option in the second round but not likely to return the investment value in the first.
Now, finally, to my pick. It’s quite easy to make a case for Treylon Burks to be the No. 1 overall pick in rookie drafts, let alone the No. 5 overall pick. No player had a higher average yards/team pass attempt between his sophomore and junior years (3.20) than him, while he stood out after the catch (9.3 YAC/REC), as a big-play threat (16.6 yards/reception), as well as just with his overall production (3.57 yards/route run).
Even though Burks’ 4.55 40-yard dash was slower than we thought he would run, it still is suitable for an 86th percentile speed score at 224 pounds. No receiver in this class dominated in terms of production profile as he did. While there are some concerns over the refinement of his skillset, I cannot overlook the combination of production profile and size that he brings to the table. Factor in that he’ll end up as the direct replacement to AJ Brown, and it’s easy to see the upside associated with him for fantasy purposes. It’s unlikely he would fall to this spot of your rookie draft usually, but if he somehow did, pounce on that opportunity!
Round 2
- 2.01 – Christian Watson (WR – GB)
- 2.02 – Jahan Dotson (WR – WSH)
- 2.03 – George Pickens (WR – PIT)
- 2.04 – James Cook (RB – BUF)
- 2.05 (My Pick) – Rachaad White (RB – TB)
- 2.06 – David Bell (WR – CLE)
- 2.07 – John Metchie (WR – HOU)
- 2.08 – Desmond Ridder (QB – ATL)
- 2.09 – Zamir White (RB – LV)
- 2.10 – Brian Robinson (RB – WSH)
- 2.11 – Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
- 2.12 – Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL)
Piggybacking off the Spiller argument, there are a lot of comparable running backs who come off the board in the second round; all were drafted in the same round or higher than him and have at least very similar skillsets, if not better.
I do wonder how we should evaluate Dameon Pierce. On one end, he had a 93.5 PFF rushing grade last season and was productive evading tackles and producing after contact. At the same time, that efficiency came with him having just 206 combined carries over the past two years. He’s likely to continue to rise up rookie drafts based on the immediate opportunity he will potentially have in Houston, but it’s important to not over-emphasize the landing spot here.
Pierce generated serious consideration for my pick. Nevertheless, I will gladly take the running back who was drafted earlier than him and demonstrated the ability to be a three-down workhorse; Rachaad White. White’s overall body of his work is limited after he transferred from community college to Arizona State before his senior season, only to have most of that year wiped out due to COVID-19. Then, he came back for a fifth year, only to set the Pac-12 on fire with a 90+ PFF rushing AND receiving grade.
Although James Cook comes close, I don’t think there’s a better receiving back in this class. There is a definite tier drop after the first two options, but White has the combination of day-two draft capital and dual-threat talent to get excited about. At all costs, make sure to make him a priority in the second round of your rookie drafts.
Round 3
- 3.01 – Trey McBride (TE – ARI)
- 3.02 – Alec Pierce (WR – IND)
- 3.03 – Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)
- 3.04 – Tyrion Davis-Price (RB – SF)
- 3.05 (My Pick) – Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)
- 3.06 – Sam Howell (QB – WSH)
- 3.07 – Tyquan Thornton (WR – NE)
- 3.08 – Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
- 3.09 – Justyn Ross (WR – KC)
- 3.10 – Jalen Wydermyer (TE – BUF)
- 3.11 – Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN)
- 3.12 – Ty Chandler (RB – MIN)
With five players in this round with day-two draft capital, there is talent to be had in the third round of your rookie draft. I remain perplexed by the fall of Sam Howell. Just one year ago, we were considering him as the No. 1 overall pick, and for good reason. He eclipsed a 91 PFF grade in back-to-back seasons at North Carolina, had an impressive 7.2% big-time throw rate with just a 2.7% turnover-worthy play rate, and demonstrated plenty of mobility with 1106 yards on the ground last season. Unfortunately, with him slipping to the fifth round of the draft, the chances of him ever getting a chance to play are minimal. Based on the players who went after him, the middle of the third round seems like a reasonable spot for him in 12-team Superflex drafts, but I’d be careful to push him up further.
Generally, it’s hard to find a contributor at the running back past the second round of rookie drafts. If you are going to take a chance on one player at the position, I highly recommend doing so with Tyler Allgeier. This is a player that eclipsed a 90 PFF rushing grade in back-to-back seasons, averaged an absurd 4.4 yards after contact/attempt, and checks practically every production box you could hope for.
Having fifth-round draft capital isn’t ideal for Allgeier. On the positive, he looks primed to potentially be the No. 2 back in Atlanta, and at the very worst, profiles as a player who can have some touchdown equity at the goal-line. There are a lot of similarities between him and James Conner, which is the type of trajectory you could be getting. At this stage of the draft, anything close to that is a tremendous outcome.
Round 4
- 4.01 – Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)
- 4.02 – Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)
- 4.03 – Velus Jones (WR – CHI)
- 4.04 – Pierre Strong (RB – NE)
- 4.05 (My Pick) – Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)
- 4.06 – Keaontay Ingram (RB – ARZ)
- 4.07 – Calvin Austin (WR – PIT)
- 4.08 – Tyler Badie (RB – BAL)
- 4.09 – Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)
- 4.10 – Jerrion Ealy (RB – KC)
- 4.11 – Danny Gray (WR – SF)
- 4.12 – Zonovan Knight (RB – NYJ)
Let the run of day-three receivers and running backs continue! It’s interesting to ponder which one of these running backs has the best shot of succeeding. Keaontay Ingram will likely become a popular name based on him potentially becoming the No. 2 running back in Arizona. However, I wouldn’t be too excited about the sixth-round draft capital. Really, after Allgeier, I see a notable tier drop, making it even more worthwhile to draft him in the third round.
In the end, why not take a chance on one of the few players left on the board with day-two draft capital? With 18.3 yards/reception and above-average athletic testing numbers, Greg Dulcich certainly profiles as a tight end who can take the top off over the seam, serving as a potential impact receiving option of a tight-end duo. It’s doubtful he will make an immediate impact, but at this stage, his chances of contributing two or three years from now are much higher than the other names drafted around him here. If you’re looking at a tight end in rookie drafts, it truly is “Trey McBride or bust,” though Dulcich is a fine fallback option in the fourth round.
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Four-Round, 10-Team
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, Tight End Premium
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, 1QB
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 1QB, 10-Team
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