What an exciting NFL Draft! At the top of the draft, we faced so much uncertainty, but we also got extensive trade-ups and even saw multiple wide receivers (AJ Brown and Marquise Brown) traded for first-round picks. This was not the year to have an accurate mock draft, which is a good thing because the unpredictability led to an overall more entertaining product.
The NFL Draft also served another key purpose for fantasy managers — we finally got to attach draft capital and landing spots to the skill position prospects. For example, quarterback Malik Willis, who was seen as a lock to be a first-round draft pick, fell to the end of the third round. As a result, he will likely see his stock drop significantly. On the other hand, a prospect such as James Cook, who was the third running back off the board, will likely move up notably up draft boards.
What an exciting NFL Draft! At the top of the draft, we faced so much uncertainty, but we also got extensive trade-ups and even saw multiple wide receivers (AJ Brown and Marquise Brown) traded for first-round picks. This was not the year to have an accurate mock draft, which is a good thing because the unpredictability led to an overall more entertaining product.
The NFL Draft also served another key purpose for fantasy managers — we finally got to attach draft capital and landing spots to the skill position prospects. For example, quarterback Malik Willis, who was seen as a lock to be a first-round draft pick, fell to the end of the third round. As a result, he will likely see his stock drop significantly. On the other hand, a prospect such as James Cook, who was the third running back off the board, will likely move up notably up draft boards.
How the NFL evaluates players ultimately matters the most from a fantasy perspective because players need the opportunity to produce. We have that answer, which allows us to make much more informed decisions in rookie drafts. For those unfamiliar with these types of drafts, this is the time when dynasty teams get to replenish their roster with young talent coming out of the NFL Draft. Sure, you can make trades to acquire young assets, but it’s tough to trade for a prospect considered to be of blue-chip caliber. Especially if you’re in a rebuilding phase, it is paramount that you hit on your early rookie draft picks, similar to the actual NFL Draft.
How a rookie draft will shape up depends significantly on the format of your league. Today, though, I want to focus specifically on 2QB/Superflex formats. This format places a significantly greater emphasis on the quarterback position, and for an obvious reason: there are only 30 starting quarterbacks, making the replacement-level value incredibly minimal. Add in the fact that quarterbacks have a significantly longer lifespan and peak than other positions. It is clear that your Superflex dynasty runs entirely through your options at that position.
With only one quarterback going in the first round, the rookie draft landscape in Superflex leagues is shaping up to be remarkably different this year. I utilized the FantasyPros mock draft simulator to analyze this, running a 10-team Superflex rookie mock draft from the No. 5 spot. So how many quarterbacks go in the first round? Who stands out as clear potential values? Let us find out!
Stats via Pro Football Focus
Superflex 10-Team Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Round 1
Considering that he is the consensus No. 2 running back in this draft, falling to the 1.09 spot is quite the fall for Kenneth Walker. You should certainly be concerned about his lack of receiving production in college, which lowers his ceiling considerably in PPR formats. That said, he is, in my opinion, one of the best pure rushers we’ve had come out of college in some time. He averaged 4.27 yards after contact per carry and missed 0.33 tackles per attempt, which are absurd numbers. There are enough concerns to warrant taking the top tier of wide receivers over him, but 1.09 is a tremendous value.
For me, deciphering between Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams was remarkably difficult. Williams’ 13.6 yards per target and 20 yards per reception illustrate the immense big-play ability he brings to the table, as he’s a weapon after the catch and stretching the field vertically in a very similar way to Jaylen Waddle.
I regret my choice, but it is tough to go against Wilson’s lengthier production profile. The Ohio State product had at least three yards per route run in each of the past two seasons, while his 3.21 yards per team pass attempt as a sophomore was the highest of this class. Remember, that came despite competing with multiple other first-round caliber receivers. There is no other wide receiver prospect with fewer red flags than him. Consider him the next in line of the elite Ohio State wide receivers.
Round 2
If it feels like the wide receiver position continues to be deeper and deeper in terms of talent in the draft, that would be accurate. After all, a first-round pick almost fell to the third round of this rookie mock draft. However, considering he’s an undersized senior who didn’t have dominant production as an underclassman and also struggled notably against man coverage, there is a clear case against Jahan Dotson, though, even then, you have to at some point consider the draft capital.
On the contrary, it’s surprising to see Kyren Williams make it into the second round of this mock draft. He is an underclassman who was a true three-down back in college, but his stock slipped considerably after running a 4.63 40-yard dash at just 194 pounds (9th percentile speed score). After being a fifth-round pick, it’s hard to see the path to him carrying more upside than bigger, more athletic backs who were drafted earlier, even if the pass-catching skill set is intriguing.
It was a toss-up between double-dipping at receiver with either Jahan Dotson or Christian Watson or selecting Rachaad White. Yet, it is hard to turn that down in the second round any time you can draft a player who had a 90 PFF rushing and receiving grade last year and then proceeded to get day-two draft capital. Based on where White was expected to be drafted, few players benefited more from how the draft played out than him. The former Sun Devil is worth your while in rookie drafts.
Round 3
Trust me. I wanted to select a wide receiver here. Alec Pierce has second-round draft capital, has a solid size-speed combination, and draws comparisons to Martavis Bryant and DJ Chark based on his athleticism and how he profiles as a vertical threat, which would be a great outcome in the third round. Meanwhile, David Bell and Wan’Dale Robinson were day-two receivers with solid production profiles. However, neither pass the bar in terms of their measurables — Bell in terms of athleticism and Robinson in terms of size.
In the end, though, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trey McBride slips into the third round of rookie drafts. We’re talking about a player who posted an absurd 95 PFF receiving grade last year, has a strong track record of production, and then tested out as an above-average athlete (85th percentile speed score).
Yes, the landing spot with the Cardinals isn’t ideal because the team recently signed Zack Ertz to a three-year extension that is essentially impossible to get out of for the first two seasons. But tight ends with plus production and athletic profiles don’t grow on trees. Tight ends take a few years to acclimate to the NFL anyway, so when McBride hits his peak, all wheels will be churning for him to develop into a consistent starting option. At this point, how could you not be happy with that outcome?
Round 4
Finally, we see the wide receiver dip happening. That doesn’t include Khalil Shakir, a versatile weapon who could be quite useful out of the slot and eventually work his way up into a starting role for the Bills. Meanwhile, running back Brian Robinson, who dominated with a 90.4 PFF rushing grade last season and got third-round draft capital, is a tremendous value in the fourth round.
Alas, both of these players went right before my pick, leaving me to decipher between the 49ers’ two third-round picks: running back Tyrion Davis-Price and receiver Danny Gray. I completely understand the allure of a running back with Davis-Price’s draft capital because he was an early declare from the SEC. Yet, the peripheral numbers concern me. His 2.82 yards after contact per attempt, .18 missed tackles forced per attempt and 12% explosive play rate all rank below average. He also provided very little (0.51 yards/route run) as a receiver. Again, I understand the draft capital, but the talent has to matter too.
This leads me to Gray, who I see as a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Outside of Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks, there may be no other wide receiver who is a greater weapon after the catch than the SMU product, who averaged an extremely high nine yards after the catch per reception in college.
Gray is an older prospect who doesn’t necessarily pop out in most overall production metrics. Still, it’s not hard for him to carve out some role with the 49ers as a rookie, and he even offers handcuff value if anything happens to either of the top two wide receivers. But, again, it’s not a “wow” pick. In contrast, some players picked after him have minimal margin for error. Still, Gray’s combination of draft capital and underlying skillset is worth considering at the end of your rookie drafts.
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