Zach Wilson 2021 Production

Career Contextualization

Zach Wilson played his college ball at BYU for three years before being drafted by the New York Jets at No. 2 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Wilson’s massive ascent resulted from his breakout junior season, where he took college football by storm.

He ranked No. 1 in PFF passing grade (95.5, highest in the PFF era), second in passer rating (136.3), third in yards per attempt (11.1), third in touchdowns (32) and third in completion percentage (72.7%).

Only 13.6% of Wilson’s throws beyond the line of scrimmage were deemed uncatchable his final year at BYU, the lowest rate in the FBS. His passing grade on tight-window passes also led all quarterbacks, which wasn’t particularly close (92.7).

However, making the jump from BYU to the NFL came with significant growing pains in Wilson’s rookie year. He was pressured at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL (38.5%), and his efficiency suffered. Only Mike Glennon had a worse passer rating (49.7).

And his passer rating dipped the longer he held the ball. If the Braxton Berrios or Elijah Moore first read wasn’t there, the play would head south rapidly.

Getting hurt also didn’t help Wilson in Year 1, as he was forced out of action from Weeks 8-11. Even when Wilson returned from injury, the passing struggles continued. But the silver lining was that Wilson turned on the afterburners in the running game to salvage some fantasy production.

He averaged 15 fantasy points per game (QB22) over the last seven games, including three finishes inside the top 15. The Jets’ quarterback also drastically reduced his carelessness by not throwing interceptions in the final five games.

Current Situation

Everything about Wilson’s situation is improved from a year ago. The Jets have stockpiled their offense with WR Garrett Wilson, OG Laken Tomlinson, RB Breece Hall and a plethora of tight ends to give their young quarterback a chance of succeeding in his second season.

If New York’s offensive line can hold up in pass protection, Wilson has a chance of delivering fantasy value.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

It’s harsh to label a second-year quarterback as a make-or-break candidate, but that’s how it feels to view Wilson heading into 2022. His rookie season saw him post horrible numbers across the board, so he has to improve dramatically in 2022 with expectations heightened due to what the Jets have done this offseason. Otherwise, New York could look to move on from the former second overall pick.

But on the other side of the coin, it’s plausible he could take a massive step forward amid a much better situation. Situations can cloud our judgments on players, so Wilson would be a quarterback I’d look to sell “high” on based all the team upgrades. It’s a risky proposition because the path for improvement is there, but I’ll let someone else take that gamble.

Wilson’s predictive numbers from a clean pocket (37th PFF passing grade) and at the intermediate level (30th PFF passing grade) are too eerily similar to Sam Darnold. And let’s not forget those pounding the table for Darnold when he landed in a “good situation” last year in Carolina. He flashed ability for three weeks due to unsustainable rushing production and immediately returned to irrelevance as the Panthers finished the season 3-12.

For Wilson to be an impactful fantasy asset, I truly believe he needs to continue to leverage his legs.

When you sort quarterbacks in recent memory who struggled as rookies — Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky — they posted decent marks in total yards gained per game played. Wilson’s final 179.5 yards per game played ranked between Allen and Trubisky in 2021.

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