Some teams seem to have a cheat code for certain things. The Green Bay Packers have a knack for Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Baltimore Ravens seem to draft all-world defensive players like they’re fish in a barrel. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had three head coaches in the last 53 years and have turned more than a handful of mid- to late-round wide receivers into legends of the gridiron.
The Steel City wide receiver relay has passed the baton from Lynn Swann and John Stallworth to Yancey Thigpen, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown, and now to Diontae Johnson. Unfortunately, the 2019 third-round pick from Toledo is anything but special on paper. Short arms and less-than-stellar athletic measurables match his 5-foot-10 frame. So how was this player a WR1 in fantasy football with an out-to-pasture, grizzled quarterback last season? The simple answer is, “Diontae Johnson gets open.”
Some teams seem to have a cheat code for certain things. The Green Bay Packers have a knack for Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Baltimore Ravens seem to draft all-world defensive players like they’re fish in a barrel. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had three head coaches in the last 53 years and have turned more than a handful of mid- to late-round wide receivers into legends of the gridiron.
The Steel City wide receiver relay has passed the baton from Lynn Swann and John Stallworth to Yancey Thigpen, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown, and now to Diontae Johnson. Unfortunately, the 2019 third-round pick from Toledo is anything but special on paper. Short arms and less-than-stellar athletic measurables match his 5-foot-10 frame. So how was this player a WR1 in fantasy football with an out-to-pasture, grizzled quarterback last season? The simple answer is, “Diontae Johnson gets open.”
As you can see from the chart, courtesy of Matt Harmon’s unparalleled Reception Perception, Johnson is an elite separator from the X position. This graphic reflects his dominance from the 2020 season, where he didn’t even eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in 15 games. There is zero doubt that his 2021 charting will be at least as good, coming off a 107/169/1,161/8 season that put him as the WR8 in PPR points per game. In 2020, he dominated man and zone coverage equally, appearing in the 95th and 96th percentile, respectively, in all-time success rate.
Big Ben has tolled his final bell and limped into the sunset. Two new sheriffs are donning the black and gold for 2022. Former Bears first-round pick Mitchell Trubisky is joined by incoming 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett. What does this mean for Diontae Johnson? I submit that the arrival of rookie receivers George Pickens and Calvin Austin III affects Johnson more than who emerges as the Steelers’ new signal-caller. It is improbable that his stranglehold on the X position will waver, as Johnson’s 169 targets in Matt Canada’s scheme indicate that No. 18 is the first read on most pass plays.
Roethlisberger was also extremely trigger-happy with checking down to running backs and slot receivers when under pressure. Trubisky and Pickett are above-average athletes who can extend plays with their legs and find open receivers after the play breaks down. This bodes well for all Pittsburgh pass catchers, especially Diontae Johnson. If targets are earned, then Johnson is a successful entrepreneur.
Pickett and Trubisky will undoubtedly have a heated battle for the starting position in training camp. I give the edge to Pickett, who I perceive to be better at throwing accurate passes in rhythm and anticipation than Trubisky. It will be difficult for Johnson not to accrue better efficiency numbers than last season. He was 80th in the NFL in yards per target and 40th in catchable target rate. If Big Ben appeared to be struggling, it’s because he was. The Steelers are primed to continue funneling the ball to Johnson, hopefully with less spillage.
Pickens is an unpolished product from Georgia but is seen more as a field-stretching Z receiver. Calvin Austin is electrifying and excelled at the X at Memphis, but his diminutive size likely relegates him to slot and gadget work at this level. Finally, Chase Claypool is on notice with these two selections. He regressed last season and will need to take a leap to remind the team how gifted he truly is.
Johnson is entering the final year of his rookie deal and has made it known he wishes to remain in Pittsburgh. However, even if the Steelers decide to move on from him in lieu of a large extension, Johnson has the skill set that translates well to virtually any offensive scheme and is proven to be quarterback-proof.
Diontae Johnson is still an underappreciated dynasty asset. Despite his immense success, year-over-year improvement and a clear upgrade at quarterback going forward, he is hovering near a third-round ADP in startup drafts. His lack of explosive appeal means wide receivers with more perceived upside often overshadow him. The 25-year-old is ranked as my dynasty WR8, with weekly WR1 potential and at least three more seasons of top-tier opportunity.
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