Allen Robinson Career Contextualization

Allen Robinson (WR – LAR) was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Penn State University. After his junior season, Robinson declared for the draft, having led the Nittany Lions in receiving the previous two years, amassing 2,450 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns with 174 catches. Allen was immediately thrust into a starting role in Jacksonville, ranking third on the team in all major receiving categories in his rookie season.

His second season (2015) would see him break out in tremendous fashion, turning 151 targets into 80 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns, eventually finishing his sophomore campaign as the overall PPR WR4 and receiving his only Pro Bowl selection.

After the 2015 explosion from Robinson, expectations were understandably high for him moving forward. In 2016, he earned 151 targets again, but he could not replicate his previous season’s production, falling short of 1,000 yards receiving and only managing six touchdown receptions. Then, in 2017, Robinson’s final year in Jacksonville, we saw him go down in the season opener against Houston with a torn ACL. The Jaguars declined to extend Robinson’s contract after the injury, allowing him to sign a three-year $42 million contract with the Chicago Bears.

Robinson got off to a slow start with the Bears, only playing in 13 games in 2018 and finishing the season as the overall PPR WR40. The following two seasons would showcase what we saw in 2015, finishing as the overall PPR WR7 in 2019 and WR9 in 2020. Those performances earned him the franchise tag for 2021. A lack of stability at the quarterback position, a slew of injuries, and the emergence of Darnell Mooney damped his performance in his final season with Chicago, with him only playing in 12 games and finishing as the overall PPR WR81.

Current Situation

At the beginning of the current free agency period, Robinson signed a three-year, $46.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Rams. He will be paired with the best QB he’s had in his career, Matthew Stafford, as a part of one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Coming off of a Super Bowl 56 victory in February, the Rams are looking to repeat, and Robinson should be a massive part of that effort. After losing WR Odell Beckham Jr. to an ACL tear in the big game, and trading WR Robert Woods to the Tennessee Titans, it was imperative for them to add talent and depth at the position.

Robinson will plug right into this offense as a playmaker paired with WR Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles threw the ball on 60.3% of their offensive snaps in 2021, a number unlikely to change much. Robinson is the immediate WR2 behind Kupp and should see a minimum of 100 targets in 2022. He provides an additional deep threat for Stafford, who was third in the league in pass attempts of 20-plus yards (65) in 2021. There is no question he will have a significant role in Los Angeles if he can stay healthy.

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

Allen Robinson has never been in such a favorable position in his eight-year career. Stafford is leaps and bounds ahead of his previous QBs, and this coaching staff is more put together than any of them. Despite being saddled behind the overall PPR WR1 in 2021 (Kupp), this team throws the ball a lot. For the first time in his career, he will not be the primary receiver defenses are concerned about, allowing him to draw single coverage in man-to-man situations and roam without a shadow in zone schemes. We could reasonably see Robinson in the 80 to 90 catch range with the possibility of double-digit touchdown output, landing him in the WR1 range this upcoming season.

It’s generally accepted that most NFL WRs reach their peak between the ages of 27 and 30. Robinson will turn 29 in August, just ahead of the start of the season. This could be a concern for his value past the 2022 season, especially given the wear and tear that has led to a slew of injuries in past years. However, as previously stated, he has never been in such an advantageous situation. He won’t be asked to shoulder the offensive load in the passing game and thus should be able to extend his career past expected expiration.

Robinson is under contract in Los Angeles through the 2024 season, and his ceiling should remain in WR1 territory for that span. He is a buy candidate in dynasty for the right price and someone you should be looking to roster in redraft leagues for 2022.

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.