We’re going to have you covered throughout dynasty rookie and startup draft season with our 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit. As part of that offering, we’ll have updated rankings throughout and following the 2022 NFL Draft.
Derek Brown has done a ton of dynasty rookie profiles for the draft hit. Now that the 2022 NFL Draft has passed and some of the dust has settled, he has determined players he’s targeting and avoiding in dynasty rookie drafts. Here’s a look at players he’s avoiding.
Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
John Metchie (WR – HOU)
John Metchie arrives in the land of helmet scouting with the Houston Texans. Nick Caserio opted for Metchie in the second round of the draft, which feels like a swinging bunt single selection. Metchie could never step up as Alabama’s leading receiver during his tenure, which can be said for his rookie season outlook. Metchie will fight with Nico Collins for looks behind Brandin Cooks. He’s a fine draft pick with early opportunity and solid draft capital, but temper expectations on his NFL ceiling. Metchie isn’t a player I’ll typically be shooting for in the second round of rookie drafts where I’m more ceiling outcome-oriented, so if he’s there, I’ll happily pass. If he dips into the third round (doubtful), that’s where I’ll take a shot on him.
Matt Corral (QB – CAR)
Among the quarterbacks drafted in the third round in the NFL Draft, Matt Corral could have the easiest path to playing time in year one. Sam Darnold flopped as a reclamation project last season in Carolina. Matt Rhule is firmly parked on the hot seat at the moment. At best, rolling it back with Darnold in 2022 feels like a shaky proposition. Rhule needs this team to take a step forward and possibly contend (or make) for the playoffs to add some length to his leash. Corral has his question marks with erratic deep accuracy and residing from an RPO and first read-heavy scheme at Ole Miss. If he can show even a glimmer of promise in camp or the preseason, Corral could be under center Week 1 instead of the long-time Ghostbuster’s intern, Darnold. The coaching situation also makes him the riskiest quarterback to target among the third-round signal-callers selected. If Rhule is canned next year and a new regime is installed, the new brass could easily opt to handpick their own quarterback in the Draft or via trade or free agency. If that happens, Corral doesn’t have the draft capital to assist him with getting a second shot at starting with Carolina or another team down the road.
More Film & Prospect Analysis Today:
I like Zamir White BUT I feel like the consensus is way higher on him than me…
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 11, 2022
After declining Josh Jacobs‘ fifth-year option, the Raiders could enter 2023 with Zamir White and Brandon Bolden as the only running backs under contract. With the profile of an early-down grinder which isn’t nearly as elusive as his former five-star prospect status would have you believe, I wouldn’t be aggressively trading up for him. He’s a dart throwback who could see the field if injuries strike but easily be replaced in 2023 if the team falls in love with a running back prospect. While he’s falling into the mid to late third round in rookie dynasty drafts, I’ll pass on him at that cost for wide receivers like Jalen Tolbert or Khalil Shakir that are being selected in that range.
Still trying to wrap my head around the fact…
That Velus Jones and Danny Gray were 3rd Round selections in the NFL Draft.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 6, 2022
Velus Jones parlayed his 4.31 speed into a third-round selection by the Chicago Bears. Outside of draft capital and his lightning-fast legs, Jones is spreadsheet warriors’ worst nightmare. He bombs all the analytical benchmarks that prognosticate future NFL success. Add in that Jones is almost 25 years old, and you have a frightening use of dynasty rookie pick. Jones has an easy path to early snaps with the Bears’ wide receiver room in shambles. Outside of Darnell Mooney, Chicago will trot out the donut king Byron Pringle and either Equanimeous St. Brown or David Moore as their top receiving talents. Jones has draft capital and a possible high snap scenario as the pluses in his corner, but the rest of the equation is scary.
Danny Gray (WR – SF)
Lump Danny Gray into the same bucket as Velus Jones. Gray was a third-round NFL Draft pick with a questionable analytical profile with one redeeming quality that jumps off the page: speed. Gray isn’t applying for AARP as soon as he enters the league like Jones, but that only mildly helps his case. Looking at his collegiate production profile at SMU produces early migraine symptoms and eye strain trying to find a silver lining. Gray carries a 43rd percentile college dominator and target share and a tenth percentile breakout age to the NFL. None of these factors foretell future NFL success. This feels like a paper-thin attempt by the San Francisco 49ers to give themselves some insurance for Deebo Samuel‘s uneasy situation. Even the 49ers have swung and missed on “finding the next Deebo Samuel.”
Tyquan Thornton (WR – NE)
The Patriots pull off another double-take-worthy pick by selecting Tyquan Thornton in the second round of the NFL Draft. Thornton tested out as an elite-level athlete at the Combine with a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash time and above 90th percentile speed and burst scores, but this pick was a massive reach. With an expected draft position of 123 per Grindingthemocks.com, the Patriots were seduced by the speed juice to take him this early. Thornton’s prospects for early production or a high ceiling are hard to see. He will be competing for targets with DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and their slew of tight ends and running backs on a run-first team.
DBro’s 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
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