We have made it through another week of the season, and that means we have another set of players to Buy High or Sell Low based on their weekly performances. Based on their recent performances and a full-season outlook, I will choose some options. It is still challenging to get a great feel on a player as many underlying metrics have not had enough time to develop fully, but we are getting closer as we have nearly played a month of baseball. With all of that said, let’s look at a handful of players that you should buy high or sell low.
Buy High
Not long ago, many were panicking about Tucker’s slow start to the season, similar to last season, but panic no longer as Tucker is scorching hot at the plate. He is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak where he is hitting .517 with five extra-base hits and three stolen bases. Tucker is barreling the ball nearly 15% of the time with a 55.6% hard-hit rate, which helps support the offensive dominance. It gets even better, as he is only striking out 10% of the time. Tucker is putting the ball in play, hitting with power and stealing bases. There is still a chance we see Tucker hit 25+ home runs and steal 20+ bases, which is someone worth buying very high on.
Springer is tough to buy high on for some as he has a tricky injury history, but we are buying what Springer can do when healthy. When healthy of late, he has been raking. He has hit safely in eight of his last ten games with five multi-hit games. Springer is hitting for power with four home runs and a 14.3% barrel rate. He has even tossed in a stolen base. Over the last week, Springer has been hitting .342 with a .290 BABIP and striking out only 7% of the time. In addition, he will continue to hit leadoff for the Jays, which brings all kinds of fantasy goodness.
Insert “it’s happening” gif. Rodriguez is starting to hit and makes some fantasy baseball noise. He hit safely in five of seven games last week for a .333 batting average. He hit his first career home run, an absolute moonshot while stealing three more bases. Rodriguez is 9-for-10 on stealing bases with a 49% hard-hit rate on the season. His strikeout rate is also improving as he is striking out 35.2% on the season, which was over 40% not too long ago, but over the last seven days, he is only striking out 23.1%. Buy Rodriguez while you can, as the rocket ship is taking off.
Some were very concerned with Verlander’s health entering the season as he is returning from Tommy John surgery, but he is proving that he is just fine. Verlander has pitched at least six innings in three straight starts. He has allowed four runs over 21 innings in those three starts while striking out eight in two of the starts. He is forcing an O-swing of 34.4% with a 10.2% SwStr. Verlander’s velocity is still incredible, and all signs point to another strong season.
Gausman is quickly letting many know that the move to the AL East is nothing to worry about. He has thrown at least six innings in three straight starts and, on the season, has thrown at least five innings in each start with no more than three earned runs. In addition, Gausman has at least eight strikeouts in four straight starts, which have been aided by an insane 21.1% SwStr. What may be even crazier is that Gausman has yet to walk a batter this season. Sure some regression has to occur for Gausman, but there is no reason to suspect a disastrous decline in making him a top-end starting pitcher for the rest of the season.
Sell Low
It wasn’t long ago that many were saying, “Bellinger is back!!!” or “How could you fade Bellinger in drafts?” Well, we saw last season’s Bellinger reappear this past week. He collected one hit all of last week over his six games played. He struck out 33% of the time with a 13% SwStr. He managed a 7% barrel rate, which is interesting with one total hit. Bellinger seems entirely lost at the plate, and I would sell low as he will have an occasional good run, but the over profile suggests a lot more struggles to come this season.
Muncy is having a horrible start to the season, hitting only .136 with two home runs. Over the past week, Muncy only had two hits over this past week with a .063 ISO. He did still walk 20% of the time, which is the Muncy way, and was barreling the ball nearly 14% of the time, but the overall results have not been great. This past week mimics his season, and I am concerned that his torn UCL that he did not have surgery on is giving him some issues.
Many were hoping for a bounceback season for Chapman this season, and so far, we are seeing similar production from recent seasons. He is hitting for some power, but the average and strikeouts are still a problem. This past week, Chapman hit two home runs and hit .160 with a 35.7% strikeout rate. He still barreled the ball 20% of the time with a 60% hard-hit rate, but those rates do not matter with a 19.5% SwStr and a 54.4% contact rate. There are still a lot of holes in Chapman’s swing, and he will likely do more damage than good to your fantasy team.
Eflin is coming off a two-start week where he faced the Rockies at home and a road matchup versus the Mets. He picked up the win versus the Rockies but got hit around for the loss versus the Mets. Eflin threw 10.1 innings and allowed six earned runs while only striking out six. The strikeouts are my biggest concern, as Eflin will have his up and down games allowing runs. If he is not getting strikeouts, his fantasy value is nearly non-existent for me. There are many Eflin believers out there, so sell low if you have one in your league.
Man oh man, Bundy was looking great in his first three starts, throwing at least five innings in each start and allowing a total of one run. Were we getting the return of Bundy? Most intelligent people knew we were not, and the real Bundy showed up in his last start. He threw six nice innings and struck out seven, a season-high, but allowed six runs with two home runs. Bundy’s velocity is down, and he relies on a different pitch mix that utilizes his offspeed pitches much more. Bundy will have good starts from time to time but is best left for streaming than an every-week role.
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