Once upon a time, the NFL fantasy season would quieten down after the dynasty rookie drafts were out of the way. Families spent time together. Employees were productive. Smartphone batteries lasted a whole day. Now though, best ball season is all-encompassing, running from straight after the Superbowl to kick off in September. The ADPs are still quite wild with the NFL draft just behind us, but the running back dead zone is starting to take shape.
If you’re unfamiliar with the running back dead zone, you can read Brendan Tuma’s article from 2021, which covers the subject more in-depth.
We need to remember that running backs historically perform worse than the wide receivers in that range through rounds three through six. Running backs are also more prone to injuries than their wide receiver counterparts and have a below-expectation win rate in best ball formats. However, the difference in wide receiver and running back scoring becomes much closer once the draft progresses past the sixth round.
Once upon a time, the NFL fantasy season would quieten down after the dynasty rookie drafts were out of the way. Families spent time together. Employees were productive. Smartphone batteries lasted a whole day. Now though, best ball season is all-encompassing, running from straight after the Superbowl to kick off in September. The ADPs are still quite wild with the NFL draft just behind us, but the running back dead zone is starting to take shape.
If you’re unfamiliar with the running back dead zone, you can read Brendan Tuma’s article from 2021, which covers the subject more in-depth.
We need to remember that running backs historically perform worse than the wide receivers in that range through rounds three through six. Running backs are also more prone to injuries than their wide receiver counterparts and have a below-expectation win rate in best ball formats. However, the difference in wide receiver and running back scoring becomes much closer once the draft progresses past the sixth round.
The chart below shows PPR PPG finishes in 2021 for wide receivers and running backs. Current 2022 ADP sees the RB24 going off the board around the start of round seven when the WR36 also gets drafted. As we can see based on last year’s data, the difference in scoring at this point is very minimal, and it’s an excellent time to add running backs to your roster.
While the dead zone is well named for good reason, a player landing there doesn’t mean certain death, and some running backs are worth our consideration. Underdog ADP is based on Best Ball Mania III, which launched on May 2nd and is still slightly volatile. However, FFPC Slim drafts have been consistently open since February, so it becomes clear that certain players will at least start the best ball hot-summer in the dead zone.
Below are two backs in the dead zone on both FFPC and Underdog, but I will be taking shots on them this draft season. While I don’t advise being heavily exposed to either player, they both have the ability and opportunity to outperform their ADP. Following them is one back I’ll likely have less than 4% exposure to across all of my drafts.
James Conner – Underdog ADP 46.5 / FFPC Slim ADP 38.3
What did James Conner do to deserve the dead zone? In 2021 he was the RB5 in both full PPR and half PPR. Conner’s 15 rushing touchdowns were second only to Jonathan Taylor. While Conner might not have put up the yardage that Taylor did, at cost, Conner was one of the best bangs for your buck running backs of 2021, advancing on Underdog at the third-highest rate of all running backs (35.7%) while putting up the second-highest win rate on FFPC (16.6%).
With Chase Edmonds firmly out of the picture, Conner’s competition looks set to be Eno Benjamin and a collection of role players. Conner has shown he can handle an every-down workload, and while he has occasionally struggled to stay on the field, he’s averaged 14 games per season over the last two years, and best ball rosters should be built with upside in mind, along with the depth to cope with some missed games.
The Cardinals prioritized re-signing James Conner over Chase Edmonds and have made him a part of their plans. It’s time for us to do the same. While it’s not worth reaching on Conner, I would be comfortable taking Conner at the back of round two, and unless his ADP reaches that point, I’ll continue to scoop him up in the third.
J.K. Dobbins – Underdog ADP 46.9 / FFPC Slim ADP 46.9
With the trade of Marquise Brown to the Cardinals and the ensuing draft selections, which included bulking up the offensive line, the Ravens made one thing crystal clear — they have no intentions of moving away from the running game. It’s not hyperbole to say that the 2019 season was the best the Ravens offense has looked in their 26-year history. The keys to that offense were multiple tight end sets and running the ball down the opponent’s throats.
With Greg Roman still in charge of the offense and a freshly stocked tight end room, it feels like the Ravens are gearing up to go back to what worked. The Ravens decided not to take a running back until the 196th pick of the draft, when they took Tyler Badie. While Badie was an interesting prospect, it’s unlikely that he eats into the workload too much. The Ravens can be slow to bring along prospects with high draft capital, so it’s doubtful Badie, who lacks that capital, sees much fantasy relevance this year. Gus Edwards will return, and like Dobbins, he is coming off an injury that caused him to miss the 2021 season.
While Edwards is a strong role player and well-liked by the team, his efficiency and explosiveness pale in comparison to Dobbins. Before Dobbins was hurt in the 2021 preseason, the local beat writers wrote on many occasions that the team planned to use Dobbins more in the passing game going forward. While a level of skepticism can be applied to any mobile quarterback dumping off passes, it doesn’t seem too outlandish to suggest that Dobbins could see an increase from the 24 targets he saw in 2020.
For a top-tier pass-catching back, we hope for a minimum of 35 targets a year, and while that would represent a significant increase, Dobbins is set to play more snaps than ever before. In 2019 Mark Ingram was a top-10 back in points per game under this offense, and J.K Dobbins currently has every opportunity to play out of the dead zone range and into winning teams.
Avoid
Josh Jacobs – Underdog ADP 59.8 / FFPC Slim ADP 40.7
Since Josh McDaniels took over as the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, he has added Brandon Bolden in free agency and drafted Zamir White in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. They join Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake in a crowded Las Vegas backfield. Jacobs had his fifth-year option declined by the team and will now be heading into a contract year. In McDaniels’ time in New England, the Patriots were well known for using a running back by committee approach, with different players being preferred for their differing skillsets.
While Jacobs squeaked into the top ten of running backs in PPR PPG in 2021, it’s hard to imagine him seeing a 12.2% target share again. While Jacobs has been a reliable touchdown scorer over the last three seasons, if he starts to lose the pass-catching upside to the committee and sees fewer attempts, then Jacobs will become the epitome of the dead zone in 2022.
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