Well, folks, we have gotten through the NFL Draft! After months of mock drafts and analysis of the incoming rookies, we finally got to see how NFL teams evaluated the players that we have been so optimistic about! Truly, there is nothing better than sweating out the third round of the drat hoping your favorite running back gets day-two draft capital.
Draft capital isn’t the only interesting part of the NFL Draft for fantasy purposes; we also now have their landing spot. Of course, football is a team sport, leading to production relying on other factors. For wide receivers, specifically, the effectiveness of the quarterback throwing them the ball has a notable effect on their production. Meanwhile, it’s easier to get opportunities to produce when there is less competition on the depth chart, which also carries weight.
Now, you want to be careful to not overemphasize landing spot too much in dynasty; ultimately, talent wins out. Overvaluing a landing spot can be how you end up with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) over Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND), while other examples of this in recent years have been Trey Sermon (RB – SF) and Samaje Perine (RB – CIN). A landing spot can be a nice tiebreaker, but you shouldn’t suddenly undergo a complete 180 on how you value a prospect simply based on who drafts them. In redraft, though, these factors matter much more.
That being said, the development of a wide receiver can be aided greatly by the situation they are thrust in. Or, on the contrary, an ineffective quarterback or an overly-crowded depth chart can have a notable negative effect on a receiver’s progression into a reliable fantasy asset. Now, this is generally only the case in outlier situations, but it is hard to say that a landing spot has zero effect on a player’s future value.
In this year’s NFL Draft, we, unfortunately, witnessed many of the wide receivers land in situations that would be considered suboptimal for their fantasy outlook. However, that wasn’t the case for every player. In fact, some can say that these four wide receivers landed in the most optimal spot, taking draft capital out of the equation. Which receiver-team matches were the best for fantasy purposes? Let’s take a closer look.
Stats via Pro Football Focus
The debate for the overall rookie “WR1” this year has been heavily debated throughout the draft process. Really, this is such a talented class, and a case can be made for several players. In my eyes, though, Treylon Burks is the player who takes that throne.
From a production standpoint, Burks clearly has the most impressive profile in this class. Over the past two seasons, he has earned PFF receiving grades of 88.9 and 91, respectively. Furthermore, he averaged 3.34 yards/route run over the past two seasons, in addition to 8.57 yards after catch/reception and 16.62 yards/reception. Simply put, those are elite numbers; no player in this class dominated like he did, in the SEC no less.
For all the concerns about his athletic testing, Burks’ 4.55 40-yard dash at 224 pounds still gave him an 86th-percentile speed score. While many will dispute the comparisons to star wide receiver AJ Brown (WR – PHI), it’s easily the closest match in terms of his size, athleticism and production; that isn’t the mean outcome comparison, but it does give you an idea of the style of player he’ll be and the potential ceiling outcome.
Well, who would’ve guessed that Burks would end up as the one-for-one replacement for Brown in Tennessee? Really, it is a great fit. Brown wasn’t manufactured touches behind the line of scrimmage the way Burks was in college, but they made certain to give him a lot of schemed targets in the short passing game, allowing him to thrive after the catch. Meanwhile, with a 30-year-old Robert Woods (WR – TEN), coming off of an ACL tear, as his only competition for targets, he is easily in line to command a very strong target share in his rookie season.
Would I have liked to see Burks on the Packers or Chiefs? Absolutely. Tennessee was already in the bottom 10 in first-down pass rate last year, and that will only go down without Brown in the fold. Yet, Burks thrived in the exact same areas of the field (short center) that Brown did, has a more than competent quarterback in Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) for this year and will almost certainly be the alpha receiver immediately. In redraft leagues, he looks to be the best rookie receiver set up for success, and in dynasty leagues, it’s hard not to bet on his talent, especially since we anticipate him being used to his ultimate abilities. His NFL contract will prevent him from hunting boars anymore, but he’ll be more than busy evolving into a true No. 1 receiver for the foreseeable future.
Sometimes, it pays to slip further in the draft than you were hoping for. Heading into the draft, Skyy Moore was expected to be drafted right outside the first round, with his draft prop set around the 34.5 range. However, as other receivers came off the board, he “fell” to the 54th overall pick, where the Chiefs were more than happy to select him. When it’s all said and done, this should go down as a very happy marriage.
It’s easy to see why Kansas City selected Moore — he was more than qualified to be a first-round receiver. In his final year at Western Michigan, he earned a 91.8 PFF receiving grade in addition to 3.4 yards/route run. Meanwhile, he was a weapon after the catch (career 6.4 yards after catch/reception), and certainly wasn’t just a slot-only receiver — only 37% of his snaps in college come from the slot.
Moore’s 3.51 yards per team pass attempt last season was the best in this class. Even though he did play in a smaller conference, the fact that he has been able to produce as an underclassman, even outperforming 2021 second-round pick D’Wayne Eskridge (WR – SEA), is very encouraging. Even if you ding him slightly for playing in a smaller conference, it’s not as though this came in the FCS, and he still rates out as a high-end talent. He’s the exact type of explosive playmaker that you want to find a way to get the ball to, and profiles as the precise type of player who’s likely to command very strong target shares and develop into a true PPR weapon.
Of course, anytime you end up being drafted by the Chiefs, allowing you to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC), that’s a great thing! For Moore, though, he also enters a situation where he can make a notable impact out of the gate. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC) was only brought in on a $3.25 million deal, while big free-agent signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC) has never been a player frequently targeted when on the field. If Moore can beat out Mecole Hardman (WR – KC), which is more than likely, he’ll be an immediate starter in three-receiver sets and could easily end up as the second-most targeted player for a high-functioning offense. If that doesn’t sound intriguing, I don’t know what to tell you! With the combination of landing spot and his talent, the Skyy is the limit for Moore moving forward.
By now, I think it is well documented that the Packers have gone a considerable length of time without drafting a wide receiver in the first round. Believe it or not, the last time Green Bay selected a wide receiver that early was in 2002. Let me put it this way; during my entire lifespan, the Packers have not once drafted a wide receiver in the first round. That is quite the commitment!
In 2020, they infamously bypassed the wide receiver position with Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) and Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) on the board, instead selecting quarterback Jordan Love (QB – GB). They then again did not draft a receiver in 2021, but 2022 was supposed to be different. After all, by trading away Davante Adams (WR – LV) and losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, the Packers had 67% of their targets from last season coming from players not currently on the roster. With rumors connecting them to Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS), George Pickens (WR – PIT) or a potential trade-up for a receiver, they were heavily favored to select a wide receiver with their first pick.
Yet, despite having two first-round picks, Green Bay did not select a wide receiver on Day 1. Considering six receivers were off the board by that point, this does make some sense, though they clearly valued one receiver like a first-round talent. After just one pick in the second round, they traded away both of their second-round picks to move up and select North Dakota State’s Christian Watson, finally adding a young wide receiver to the mix. He may not have the first-round draft capital, but being the 34th overall pick essentially puts you in that category, albeit without the fifth-year option. The jury is out on if he can help the Packers overcome their wide receiver losses, but it’s hard to imagine a better opportunity for the young receiver.
Enough Packers wide receiver talk? Sure; let’s dig into Watson as a player. In reality, he may be one of the most difficult players to evaluate in this entire draft class. Such is the case when you not only play in the FCS, but also in a very run-heavy North Dakota State offense. Now, with 4.33 yards/route run last season and 20.6 yards/reception in his college career, he did show flashes of excellence that made him such a high pick. Well, that and running a 4.36 40-yard dash at 6-4, 208 pounds, equating to a 96th percentile speed score. NFL teams always find themselves in a need for speed, and Watson wasn’t an exception.
With a career 15.7 average depth of target (aDOT), Watson was primarily utilized as a deep threat in college on the outside. Well, it just so happens to be that Marquez Valdes-Scantling, with a career 16.7 aDOT, was used just like that during his time in Green Bay. There is a lot of appeal with the primary deep threat with Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB); Valdes-Scantling, for perspective, had the 23rd highest air-yards share last year. Based on the draft capital they gave up to select him and the available targets on the roster, it’s pretty easy to envision Watson in a similar role to Valdes-Scantling, which is enticing.
Now, it isn’t as though Valdes-Scantling was the most consistent fantasy producer. Then again, he was competing for targets with Davante Adams, while his style of play always gave him a strong chance for spike weeks, especially attached to a good offense. At the very least, the amount of air yards Watson could consume makes him a very appealing best-ball asset. That being said, he was drafted 140 picks earlier than Valdes-Scantling was, so there’s a chance he just develops into a better player, thus adding more upside. Considering he’s a 23-year-old, five-year senior from an FCS school, there certainly is a lot of “boom-or-bust” nature with selecting Watson in either a dynasty rookie draft or redraft league. At the end of the day, though, his chances of succeeding are considerably higher in Green Bay.
Let’s give some love to a day-three pick! Based on historical studies, it’s very unlikely that a day-three pick makes a major impact in fantasy land. That being said, between Amon Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) last year, along with Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) and Antonio Brown (WR – FA) before that, never say never!
If there is a day-three wide receiver who is likely to blossom into an impact player, my bet is on Khalil Shakir. Based on his college production, it’s easy to make the case that he should have been drafted significantly earlier than the fifth round. Just take a look at what he’s been able to accomplish at Boise State over the past three years:
- 2019 (Sophomore): 88.2 PFF receiving grade, 2.65 yards/route run
- 2020 (Junior): 88.8 PFF receiving grade, 3.24 yards/route run
- 2021 (Senior): 89.3 PFF receiving grade, 2.83 yards/route run
Talk about consistency! Meanwhile, this excerpt from Lance Zuerlein’s scouting report on Shakir on NFL.com definitely should raise some eyebrows:
“He can be activated from a variety of alignments with the vision, wiggle and toughness to move the chains once the ball is in his hands. He finds a way to frequently show up on the notepad when watching tape and his will to outperform the guy across from him should not be overlooked. Shakir should become a valuable piece for a creative play-caller.”
As a versatile player who is a weapon after the catch, ending up in an offense that could utilize his strengths was critical for Shakir. Remember that this is the same team that got a 12-reception, 125-receiving yard performance from Isiah McKenzie (WR – BUF) in Week 16 last season. Well, considering Shakir is also productive with the ball in his hands, ran a similar 40-time to him (at a higher weight) and also figures to play in the slot, that’s a pretty strong comparison.
Between Jamison Crowder (WR – BUF) and McKenzie, the two slot receivers ahead of Shakir are making a combined $4 million this season, and likely will not be on the roster next year. If Shakir impresses in training camp and makes the most of the opportunities, as he should, there is definitely a path to a fantasy-viable role on a high-flying offense.
I’d much rather Shakir have been drafted by day two, even if it meant him being on any other team. Considering he fell to day three, however, there is not a better spot he could go. In the third round of your rookie drafts, this is THE player you want to target. Trust me; you won’t regret it.
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