Welcome to May! Even though we’ve turned a page on the calendar, we’re still fairly early in the season. This means that you still have time to use these small sample sizes to your benefit and take advantage of less experienced league-mates. It can be tough to sell high on that breakout stud you drafted late, especially for someone who is underperforming right now, but you’d be wise to follow the underlying stats and acquire some unlucky, high-pedigree players. In September, your team will thank you for the savvy moves you make in April, May and June. But who exactly should you focus on buying or selling? Our featured analysts are here to answer that call and share their top trade suggestions.
Q1. What one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
Jesse Winker (OF – SEA)
“I am willing to buy low on Jesse Winker. Winker’s power faded dramatically in the second half of last season. That might make fantasy managers nervous when considering his slow start to the 2022 campaign. And though his hard-hit rates are down, his expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) remain in the top-10 percentile among all Major League hitters. His xBA is .135 higher than his actual batting average, which is the biggest differential in baseball. I question whether the power will get to last spring’s levels, but I still believe that Winker is a .300 hitter. He hits in the middle of a solid lineup and will provide plenty of runs and RBI. I have him ranked as a top-100 hitter moving forward, and would still prefer him in a vacuum over some hitters who have gotten off to better starts like Connor Joe and Andrew Benintendi.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)
“Jesse Winker entered Monday batting .197 with no home runs, no steals, and a .039 ISO. There’s a good chance his panicking manager thinks the 28-year-old is a lost cause without home games at Great American Ball Park. However, he has still tallied more walks (17) than strikeouts (12) in 94 plate appearances while posting a higher xwOBA (.414) than he delivered during a breakout 2021. A faster starter like Andrew Benintendi, Nathaniel Lowe, or Eric Hosmer could be enough to convince Winker’s investor to cash out. ”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – DET)
“Eduardo Rodriguez struggled in the first half of 2021 and has started 2022 with an ERA over 5.00. However, his 23/8 K/BB over 25 innings is encouraging, and starts like his last one where the defense extends innings with errors are not helping. I would buy low on him and swap a guy like pitcher Paul Blackburn from Oakland (who’s pitching over his head right now) in exchange for E-Rod.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
“Paul Goldschmidt no longer has the monster power that once made him the debatable #1 pick in Fantasy Baseball less than a decade ago. One HR in the month of April will not get it done, but this Cardinals offense is starting to all catch fire at the same time scoring five runs at a time with ease. Goldy is starting to rack up a lot of multi-hit games, which should lead to plenty of May flowers in the Runs and RBI department for Goldy. A charge for 30 HRs on the season is not out of the picture quite yet. Get rid of Yasmani Grandal and a good starting pitcher, even throw in a Trey Mancini type to get a deal like this done, as Goldy can still build on his debatable Hall of Fame career in 2022.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Check out our trade values for all players in our weekly Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
Q2. What one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Zack Greinke (SP – KC)
“If you can sell high on Zack Greinke (especially after Monday’s performance), I would highly suggest doing so. Show your league-mates the shiny 2.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and .333 opponents’ slugging percentage. Sell them on a late-career resurgence now that he’s back in Kansas City. Then silently snicker to yourself (but not publicly — that’s bad form) when he inevitably implodes on someone else’s dime. Greinke is doing it with smoke and mirrors and little else. He has seven (yes, seven) strikeouts in 28 innings. His xERA currently sits at 6.07, more than twice his ERA. His other indicators aren’t much better and foretell some major bumps are in the road. You may not be able to sell Greinke for what his current production would suggest, but getting out while ahead would still be a win. I would much rather have Merrill Kelly than Greinke going forward, and I also wouldn’t mind acquiring a closer for Greinke’s services. Pitchers like Jhoan Duran and Paul Sewald could be important pieces to help stabilize ratios while potentially adding wins or saves on occasion. ”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)
Eric Lauer (SP – MIL)
“Taxes. Death. Eric Lauer getting crushed by right-handed power sluggers. Out of nowhere, Eric Lauer has gone from throwing beach balls to throwing lasers. Eleven Ks against the minor league hitting Cubs, 13 Ks against the playoff-hopeful Phillies, Lauer is getting it done with an April ERA at 1.93. While the hot start is nice, the season is long, and Eric is bound to fall back into his usual 4.00+ ERA ways. Once Lauer gets hit hard in a start, those wheels could be falling off real quick, turning Eric into a borderline Waiver Wire pitcher before the season is over. I would trade Lauer in a package with a hitter to upgrade the hitter. If you can snag an injured starter like Jack Flaherty or Sonny Gray, do it.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Kenley Jansen (RP – ATL)
“Given MLB’s current closer landscape, any saves source is a potential sell-high option for managers well-covered in the category. For proof, Kenley Jansen recently got swapped straight up for Brandon Woodruff in one of my leagues. The top closer I’m most willing to sell is Aroldis Chapman. Although he’s only allowed three hits over 9.1 scoreless innings, he’s also issued seven walks with the lowest average fastball velocity (still better than most at 97 mph) of his career. Perhaps his managers could also try to exchange him for an ace who struggled in April such as Woodruff, Zack Wheeler or Freddy Peralta.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
Adolis Garcia (OF/DH – TEX)
“Adolis Garcia of Texas is wildly streaky. Right now, he’s on a tear and hitting homers. However, when he isn’t, he’s striking out a ton and killing your batting average. I’d love to swap him in exchange for a slumping Jorge Polanco or any more complete hitter coming off a bad April. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.
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