Early May to the end of July represents the closest thing the NFL has to a “down period.” And that’s why this is the best time to schedule a dynasty startup draft.
Dynasty startup drafts are arguably my favorite draft to partake in because there are so many factors to consider in your strategy. Do you want to try and win now? Do you want to take a long-term approach and focus on the future? Do you want the best of both worlds?
The third option is usually how my fantasy drafts end up playing out. I try to find a balance of veteran impact players to go with younger prospects with high long-term upsides. However, that strategy is much easier said than done and has delivered mixed results.
That’s why it’s critical to go into a dynasty draft with a semblance of a game plan. No, you don’t need a script for each round. But go in with a general idea of what direction you want your team to take.
Using the FantasyPros DraftWizard, I’ve conducted a mock draft in a 12-team, 2QB dynasty league where I was randomly assigned the 12th pick. Since this is a dynasty league, this draft will have a deeper nine-man bench.
Round 1, Pick 12: Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
The quarterback position should be your top priority in this format. Surprisingly, only three quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes) were drafted before I was on the clock. So I was left with some pretty good options with my first pick.
Ultimately, I chose Jackson because his rushing ability is the ultimate cheat code. Granted, Jackson isn’t as much of a slam dunk as he was a year ago. The Ravens haven’t even reached a long-term contract extension with him yet. But it’s worth noting that essentially everything went wrong for Baltimore last season, with Jackson missing a couple of games. Entering a pivotal year, I think we get a big 2022 from Jackson, leading to a long-term deal.
Round 2, Pick 1: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
I’m double-dipping at quarterback to begin my draft, and I’m thrilled with the duo I’ve assembled. I’m pairing Jackson’s mobility with Burrow’s exceptional ability as a pocket passer. His situation in Cincinnati has vastly improved from his rookie year, and his offensive line should be better moving forward. All signs point to Burrow being a great dynasty foundational piece.
While CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp tempted me, I know I can find receivers later on, as those positions are much deeper. But given the format, I’m happy to land two elite players at the most important position.
Round 3, Pick 12: Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Not every pick in your dynasty draft has to come with a slant toward the future. Diggs is 28 years old and could be reaching the end of his peak, but he’s still a vastly talented No. 1 wide receiver in arguably the best offense in the league. So sign me up for 1,200 yards and eight-to-10 touchdowns for at least a few more years.
Round 4, Pick 1: Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Tyreek Hill‘s arrival in Miami might slightly damper Waddle’s upside. However, Waddle is probably the receiver I’d rather have long-term. He’s just 23 years old and is coming off a rookie campaign during which he caught 104 balls for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. You could even argue that Hill’s presence helps Waddle, as he’ll garner more defensive attention. In addition, Waddle has a rapport with QB Tua Tagovailoa, who I still believe in. And with a new offensive-minded head coach, Waddle could be a strong wideout for years to come.
Round 5, Pick 12: Travis Etienne (RB – JAX)
Drafting Etienne here makes me a bit squeamish, as it’s entirely based on speculation and hope. However, there’s no denying Etienne’s talent. The question will be whether he can find his collegiate form and make an impact after coming off a Lisfranc injury.
Etienne fits my approach at running back, which is to take flyers and risks on young guys with upside. Etienne could be a three-down back and has an evident rapport with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Doug Pederson has shown a willingness to feature a guy out of the backfield, and the hope is Etienne can overtake James Robinson for that job.
Veteran running backs can sometimes come at a bargain, as they tend to be the first things to go when teams elect to rebuild. So if my upside flyers don’t pan out, I’m sure I could swing a deal at some point if I’m in contention.
Round 6, Pick 1: AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
The running backs left on the board were Josh Jacobs, Dillon, Leonard Fournette and Elijah Mitchell. All of those guys offer some appeal but also offer risk.
All Jacobs does is produce and perform, yet it feels like the Raiders can’t wait to get rid of him. Fournette will be the lead back on the best offense of the bunch, but at 27 years old, he doesn’t fit my plan. Mitchell is 24 years old and is coming off a productive rookie season. But I can’t fall into the Kyle Shanahan running back trap again; just look at Raheem Mostert.
So by process of elimination, I went with Dillon, the guy who might have the smallest workshare of the bunch. Dillon has proven he’s more than just a bruising back, as he racked up more than 1,100 total yards in his sophomore season. Sure, Aaron Jones is still there. And he’s the better tailback right now. But the Packers could emphasize the ground game more in 2022, raising the stock of both backs.
There are no clear-cut tailback options this late in the draft. But Dillon has the talent to make the most of a less-than-ideal situation.
Round 7, Pick 12: James Conner (RB – ARI)
This is a win-now move, as Conner certainly isn’t someone I’m coveting in dynasty leagues. However, he’s a viable starting option should things not pan out with Etienne and Dillon. Will he score 15 touchdowns again? Probably not. Can he crack double-digit touchdowns? Absolutely.
Round 8, Pick 1: Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
My gut told me to take Lions’ rookie wideout Jameson Williams here. But with the DraftWizard telling me there’s a less than 1% chance of Williams being taken between this and my next pick, I decided to roll the dice and trust the odds.
That led me back to the thinning-out tailback position and ultimately took me to Hunt. Yes, I know Nick Chubb exists and is often productive. But the Browns have shown a willingness to get Hunt involved when both he and Chubb are healthy. So Hunt has a role, and while Miles Sanders might enter the summer as the “lead back,” he’s harder to trust and isn’t as talented.
Plus, Hunt is in the final year of his deal with Cleveland, is only 26 years old and could be a top-12 running back long-term should he sign elsewhere as the featured back.
Round 9, Pick 12: Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
The DraftWizard was correct! Williams was still on the board, making this an easy pick. Williams would’ve been the top wide receiver drafted if he didn’t tear his ACL in the College Football Playoff title game. He’s an electric talent with speed reminiscent of Waddle.
Williams might not make an enormous impact as a rookie. He may not be healthy to start the year and will be stuck with Jared Goff as his quarterback. However, Detroit figures to be in the mix to land one of the elite quarterback prospects in a loaded 2023 draft. So a reunion between Williams and Alabama QB Bryce Young could be in the cards. Either way, Williams’ arrow should be pointing up even if his rookie season underwhelms.
Round 10, Pick 1: Allen Robinson (WR – LAR)
I’m still trying to field a competitive group in 2022, so I’ve added another veteran wideout behind Diggs and Waddle.
I’m excited about Robinson this upcoming season. He should enter the season healthy and will have a good quarterback throwing to him in Matthew Stafford. As someone who’s been a Robinson believer through the Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky eras, it’s exciting to see a player as talented as Robinson finally get to work with a “real” NFL QB. He’ll serve as an excellent complement to Cooper Kupp and should be a WR2 in leagues this year.
Round 11, Pick 12: Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
I’m reaching a bit down the board here to snag a rookie running back I’m pretty excited about. Pierce was a productive tailback at Florida, scoring 16 touchdowns on just 119 touches last season. He enters a Houston running back room with Rex Burkhead, Marlon Mack and Dare Ogunbowale as the primary competition for playing time.
Frankly, I think Pierce is being under drafted. But with such a huge gap between my picks, I have to get my guy now.
Round 12, Pick 1: Jameis Winston (QB – NO)
Since this is a 2QB league and not a Superflex format, I have to ensure I get a productive QB3 for my bye weeks. So Winston is a perfectly sufficient bye week sub. Obviously, the range of outcomes is extremely wide. But I’ll take Winston’s upside as my fill-in quarterback on a Saints offense that could be decent.
Round 13, Pick 12: Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Oh, that’s right, I have to take a tight end. My top options were Fant (bleh), Gesicki (I already have Waddle), Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam. No offense to Albert O., but I won’t be running to take that flyer in drafts.
Kmet is 23 years old and still a relative unknown. However, he should have the opportunity as potentially the No. 2 option in the passing game. The hope is his rapport with Justin Fields will take a big step forward.
Round 14, Pick 1: David Bell (WR – CLE)
The board is starting to get ugly, and when that happens, I like to draft based on the best-case scenario. For Bell, that’s becoming the slot receiver of the future for a Browns offense led by Deshaun Watson.
Round 15, Pick 12: Matt Corral (QB – CAR)
While I have three quarterbacks already on my roster, I’m always looking to draft a young passer worth stashing on my roster. I’m intrigued by Corral, who posted great numbers at Ole Miss. I suspect we’ll get at least a glimpse of Corral this season, as it seems the Sam Darnold experiment is destined for failure.
Round 16, Pick 1: Trey McBride (TE – ARI)
I need a backup tight end, so why not take a long-term shot on the second-round pick McBride. Tight ends tend to struggle in year one, and I don’t expect McBride to buck that trend. However, McBride has the receiving ability to develop into a solid weapon for Kyler Murray down the road.
Round 17, Pick 12: Allen Lazard (WR – GB)
Mr. Irrelevant in this draft will be Lazard, who I’m hoping benefits from the changes made to Green Bay’s receiving room. Other than fading vet Randall Cobb, nobody else has more rapport with Aaron Rodgers than Lazard.
DraftWizard Grade: C- (72/100)
The DraftWizard didn’t love my draft, which makes sense as I ultimately took a more future-focused path. However, in terms of competing in 2022, this team is rather top-heavy. If my shots at running back pop, this team could be a legitimate contender. But with five rookies on the roster, this team is clearly better poised for the future.
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What did you think of my mock draft? Let me know on Twitter @RealMattBarbato!