Every Tuesday, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m seeking answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.
Who Are Some Notable Players Struggling with Batted Ball Data?
I told you that we’d look at some players struggling with batted ball data this week, and I keep my promise. We’re at the standard stabilizing point in the season at 50 batted ball events, but this is anything but a typical season.
The data is still valid, but with the deadened ball and the leaguewide humidors, we need to use the data more as a guide and less as a gospel.
Here are some notable fantasy-relevant players who have one or zero barrels so far this season:
Jose Altuve, Akil Baddoo, Lorenzo Cain, Steven Kwan, Jonathan India, Robbie Grossman, Nick Senzel, Mark Canha, Dylan Carlson, Dominic Smith, Aaron Hicks, Lane Thomas, Kolten Wong, Myles Straw, Alejandro Kirk, Yuli Gurriel.
Here are some notable fantasy-relevant players who are struggling to make hard contact early on:
Dylan Carlson, Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, Akil Baddoo, Marcus Semien.
There are some passes with injuries and good performances otherwise, but overall, it’s a disappointing list. There’s a reason that HardHit% and Barrels typically correlate to success in fantasy.
Is Joey Votto Done?
I hopped on the Friends with Fantasy Benefits podcast Monday night, and one of the players that we discussed in-depth was Votto.
I came across a well-written piece that Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs wrote on Votto during my research.
I encourage you all to check it out, but my take on Votto is that if you’re sticking with him, it’s out of blind faith. Votto has notoriously been a guy who tweaks a lot about his game and gets right.
There’s nothing in the profile that is promising. He’s being more aggressive, and he’s hitting fewer hard balls. Everything about his profile says to sell, except his name is Votto.
I want to hold him on my bench for now if I have another option.
Who is Someone You’re Looking to Sell High?
Ah, here we go. Back to tradition! We aren’t ever looking to sell just to sell, but in Week 1, you could have gotten a really, really good player for Steven Kwan.
These players aren’t necessarily bad, per se, but they are overperforming in almost every sense.
The first for me is Logan Gilbert. Look, we said sell high, not just sell. And it’s not that Gilbert isn’t good – he is – it’s just that he’s overachieving a bit right now.
His surface numbers are excellent, but he’s still allowing a lot of hard contact and isn’t generating the whiffs you’d like to see. Based on Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ and Location+ model, Gilbert is overperforming quite a bit. Is he a top 35 pitcher? Yeah, absolutely. Would I try to trade him for an underperforming starter or a struggling starter with plus-metrics and an additional piece? You bet I would.
I didn’t think this needed to be said, but Eric Hosmer is a clear sell. Yes, it’s OK to collect the value he’s providing now, especially when it’s hard to find any offensive contributions. He has a low Launch Angle – shocker – and hits the ball into the ground 59.4 percent of the time.
The one thing he’s doing better is pulling the ball more and not trying to go the opposite way – which is beneficial to his profile.
It’s all a mirage, though, and while I’d start him over Votto right now, there’s zero question that I’d want Votto the rest of the season.
Marcus Semien or Whit Merrifield?
Am I pulling the topics from the podcast mentioned above to drive this article? Maybe! But you have no proof. Unless you listened, that is.
We talked about Semien and Merrifield on the pod, and we expressed our concerns over both players. I asked the host Justin Mason if he could only pick one going forward, whom would it be? He quickly said Merrifield, and I wasn’t surprised.
I, too, would take Merrifield due to the stolen base factor, and also, his data looks pretty similar to the Merrifield that we’ve come to know. He’s not a great hitter, but the speed drives his value.
As for Semien, well, perhaps he’s pressing a bit? His numbers look absolutely ugly and closer to the 2020 version of himself than the 2021 MVP candidate. I think he will be fine going forward but won’t come close to returning value on the third-round pick you invested in him.
Who are Some Players Rostered in 50 Percent of Leagues or Fewer I Should Target?
Here are 10 hitters and pitchers who you should add to your watchlist who are available in 21-50 percent of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers).
Hitters:
- Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU)
- Max Kepler (OF – MIN)
- Ramon Laureano (OF – OAK)
- Sheldon Neuse (2B/3B – OAK)
- Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS – SD)
Pitchers:
- Alex Cobb (SP – SF)
- Drew Rasmussen (SP – TB)
- Ryan Helsley (RP – STL)
- Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)
- Taijuan Walker (SP – NYM)
What About 20 Percent?
Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar.
Hitters:
- Andres Gimenez (2B/SS – CLE)
- Rowdy Tellez (1B – MIL)
- MJ Melendez (C – KC)
- Evan Longoria (3B – SF)
- Josh Naylor (1B/OF – CLE)
Pitchers:
- Adrian Houser (SP – MIL)
- Max Meyer (SP – MIA)
- Bruce Zimmermann (SP – BAL)
- Daniel Lynch (SP – KC)
- Dane Dunning (SP – TEX)
What Do I Do With Jarred Kelenic?
Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert came up on the same day in 2021. Ask Mariner fans who they’d rather have now.
It’s just sad and shocking how bad he looks and how much he has struggled. We don’t see this from top prospects for this long and to this extent. Yes, Mike Trout. Yes, Aaron Judge. Yes, Byron Buxton. But they aren’t this prolonged and don’t look as bad as Kelenic has.
He can still make some loud contact, but he’s swinging and missing at everything right now – inside and outside of the zone. His K% is 40.5 percent, and his 38.5 Whiff% is well above the league-average mark of 24.6.
The Mitch Haniger injury may have given him some extra leash, but what about when Kyle Lewis returns? This Mariners team is built to win, and they can’t justify keeping Kelenic in their lineup much longer if he’s performing this way.
In redrafts, he’s a drop. In keeper and dynasty leagues, you’re holding. You can’t sell him for pennies right now, and he still has a good long-term outlook.
Are You Buying Alec Bohm?
I don’t like getting into Twitter spats. I enjoy my corner of the internet (remember when we used to have to capitalize Internet lol) where I just write about and watch baseball without the drama.
That doesn’t mean I don’t see it, though, and Bohm is a player who seems to be debated ad nauseam.
And he’s also a player who has the fantasy community being prisoners of the moment.
Who would have thought that!
2020, Bohm was a darling. 2021, Bohm is terrible. 2022, we love Bohm!
So, who is Bohm? He’s a poor defender whose bat is carrying him to everyday playing time – especially now that Bryson Stott was optioned to Triple-A.
He has a great xwOBA (that’s not the best measurement with the weird season), but his xBA is .367 with a 55.1 HardHit%. We love to see that.
We don’t like to see the 7.9 Launch Angle (up for him) and the continued high groundball rate. After hitting everything into the ground his first two years, he has adjusted it back to league average, but it’s still too high.
The likely outcome for Bohm is an acceptable CI option who can hit some homers, but his propensity to hit groundballs will hold him back from unlocking his true raw power.
He’s a sell for me if someone – and people do – sees him as more. He should be rostered and started in most leagues, but more as a backend guy.
Who Have You Concerned?
I pretty much don’t worry about anyone early on who I wasn’t concerned about in Spring Training. But a few players I’m slightly concerned about are:
- Ketel Marte: I think better days are ahead for Marte, but the batted ball profile isn’t there yet, and even more concerning are the strikeouts.
- Franmil Reyes: Look, will Reyes inevitably get hot? Yes, he will. But he has an 11 wRC+, 46.3 K%, and a 0.76 ISO. There’s reason to be concerned.
- Dylan Carlson: I never got the hype for the guy I expected to be Stephen Piscotty 2.0, but even this is worse than I thought. No Barrels and a 17.9 HardHit%.
- Yusei Kikuchi: There’s enough there every start to say “he should be doing a little bit better,” but he just never entirely puts it together. He went back to throwing the slider 0% in his last start, and the usage has gone down in each outing so far despite it being his best pitch.
Which Teams Are You Streaming Against?
To the numbers we go!
- There are 13 teams who are below average based on wRC+.
- Of those teams, seven have a strikeout rate of 24 percent or higher.
- Those teams are the Reds, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Orioles, Brewers, Pirates, and Tigers.
- The Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, and Reds all have 15 or fewer home runs, and they, along with the A’s and Diamondbacks, have wOBAs under .300.
- Those are the six teams I’m looking to stream against the most.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
