A handful of offenses found their footing in Week 2. Meanwhile, a few teams have remained stuck in the mud. Moreover, the cream has risen to the top at the quarterback position, something I’ve factored heavily into the players I’m suggesting using in Week 3.
How to Make Money Betting on the USFL 
Quarterbacks
Bryan Scott (474 passing yards), Kyle Sloter (416), and J'Mar Smith (385) have been the top-three passers through the first two weeks. Smith has played so well that I'm not concerned about the probable return of Week 1 starter Alex McGough.
Regardless, Scott is my favorite signal-caller for DFS. The Stars are easily the most pass-happy offense in the league, taking to the air early and ofter.
Early down pass rates in the first two weeks of the USFL:
1) PHI 70% (!)
2) BHAM 53%
3) HOU 49%
4) TB 48%
5) NO 47%
6) MICH 44%
7) PIT 41%
8) NJ 40%— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) April 26, 2022
Similar story this past weekend for the Stars: most pass-heavy team in the USFL in Week 2, but second-lowest team aDoT (7.4) https://t.co/yuTCOg7DNC
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) April 28, 2022
The play-calling tendencies alone make Scott the top option. However, relatively speaking, he's also done well in Completion Percentage Over Average (CPOE) and Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.
Completion % Over Expected (CPOE) and Expected Points Added (EPA) per QB play for QBs in the first two weeks of the USFL. pic.twitter.com/yPyYLAxvfD
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) April 27, 2022
Sloter and Smith have also fared well in those measures.
Running Backs
Running back is a volume-driven position. If you're playing and getting the ball, you're scoring points. In the forthcoming tweet, four of the five backs, Trey Williams, Mark Thompson, Garrett Groshek, and Jordan Ellis, are on the table above.
RBs with 60%+ snaps:
Trey Williams (67% snaps, 81% routes)
Mark Thompson (66% snaps, 51% routes)
Paul Terry (64% snaps, 58% routes, Holland got injured doe)
Garrett Groshek (63% snaps, 60% routes)
Jordan Ellis (60% snaps, 45% routes)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 25, 2022
Sadly, B.J. Emmons missed the cut. However, in Ian Hartitz's weekly recap for Pro Football Focus, he noted Emmons played 52% of the snaps and ran 41% of the routes in Tampa Bay's blowout loss. Emmons had a decided carry advantage over backup Juwan Washington, toting the rock 14 times to only seven. In addition, Emmons had one more target (four versus three) than his scatback backup. So, he's still on my daily radar in a possible rebound spot for the Bandits.
Tony Brooks-James and C.J. Marable are entangled in a two-back timeshare, with the former playing more snaps (52% to 48%) and running a higher percentage of routes (41% versus 29%). The playing split leaves me only interested in using Brooks-James or Marable in a game-stack opposite Sloter and the Breakers' passing attack.
My favorite option of the backs is Williams. As you can see in Hartitz's tweet above, he had a whopping 81% route participation rate. The Generals are underdogs, and I expect the Stars to push them into an uncomfortable position of throwing the football. Williams has hauled in all nine of his targets for 60 yards, adding 88 on 22 attempts. As a result, he's a game-script proof back. More importantly, I love him in a game stack opposite Scott and Philadelphia's high-octane passing attack, mainly if he soaks up dump-offs in comeback mode.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
First, check out the following team-by-team graphic for target depth and target share from Anthony Reinhard.
Average Depth of Target & target share for USFL pass-catchers that have been targeted at least twice pic.twitter.com/81usPFD7LL
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) April 26, 2022
Next, look at Week 2 air yards leaders.
Week 2 USFL shit (PFF)
Air yard leaders:
Lance Lenoir Jr. (164)
Bailey Gaither (138)
Jonathan Adams Jr. (124)
Isaiah Zuber (121)
Jordan Lasley (114)
Osirus Mitchell (105)
Delvon Hardaway (100)
Tyler Simmons (93)
Maurice Alexander (86)
Shawn Poindexter (86)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 25, 2022
Players such as Victor Bolden Jr., Osirus Mitchell, Lance Lenoir Jr., Cheyenne O'Grady, and Jonathan Adams Jr., who featured prominently in the preceding tweets, were included in the table above. Bolden and Mitchell are excellent stacking options with Smith or as bring-back plays versus the Breakers. Lenoir's quarterbacks have been dreadful, but his usage has been dreamy. As for O'Grady, he's a rebound pick after a big showing in Week 1, followed by a disappointing game in Week 2. The Bandits won their opener and were embarrassed in Week 2. Might Todd Haley go back to what worked in Week 1? It makes logical sense to do so.
Adams was the standout star among pass-catchers in Week 2, making eye-catching contested catches while showcasing top-notch rapport with Sloter.
Jonathan Adams put on a SHOW this weekend against Tampa Bay ??
What was you favorite play of his? pic.twitter.com/oeE2jGLBcW
— New Orleans Breakers (@USFLBreakers) April 25, 2022
Of course, I have to include pass-catchers from Philadelphia's pass-heavy offense. The injury report will be integral for selecting their receivers.
Wednesday Practice Report:
Brennan Eagles, WR: DNP (Ankle)
Bryan Scott, QB: DNP (Knee)
Jacob Burton, OL: DNP (Knee)
James Crawford, LB: Limited (Hamstring)
Maurice Alexander, WR: Limited (Ankle)
Josh Banderas, LB: Limited (Quad)
Bradley Sylve, CB: Limited (Achilles)— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 28, 2022
Devin Gray, WR: Limited (Ankle)
Case Cookus, QB: Limited (Achilles)
Darnell Holland, RB: Limited (Hamstring)
Ahmad Dixon, S: Full (Chondral Lesion)
Jackson Scott-Brown, OL: Full (Lower back)
Mazzi Wilkins, DB: Full (Bicep)
Chris Rowland, WR: Full (Labrum)— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 28, 2022
Rowland was the star in Week 1, posting a 7-74-0 line on nine targets. Last week, he was injured and out, allowing Alexander to shine with 8-87-2 on nine targets in Week 2 after posting a bagel in Week 1. Suell also answered the bell in Week 2, reeling in six of 10 targets for 72 scoreless yards after running wind sprints and catching only one of three targets for two yards in Week 1. Rowland has returned to participate in practice this week fully, and Suell hasn't had an injury to report. As a result, I give them the edge over Alexander. However, as long as he progresses to fully participating by the end of the week, he's on my radar.
Defense and Special Teams
According to Caesars Sportsbook, the three defenses listed above are favorites this week. I agree with all three teams being favored this week. A good game script that forces the opposition into predictable passing situations is optimal for defensive scoring. Additionally, the Breakers have been the best defense this year, as measured by EPA per play.
Two weeks in, and the the New Orleans Breakers have the USFL's best EPA/play on both offense and defense.
Reminder that this is an NFL EPA model so we shouldn't be too surprised to see most offenses with a negative EPA. pic.twitter.com/6j6Eoakmm4
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) April 25, 2022
USFL Week 3 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks
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