After one week of USFL action, there is meaningful data to incorporate into the upcoming DraftKings daily fantasy analysis. As a result, I’ve whittled down my usable player tables from last week’s offering.
How to Make Money Betting on the USFL
Quarterbacks
There aren't many quarterback rooms that were truly led by one signal-caller in Week 1. However, Jordan Ta'amu, Kyle Sloter, and Bryan Scott were their team's unquestioned starters. Meanwhile, De'Andre Johnson was part of a legitimate two-headed monster with Luis Perez, with Perez handling the bulk of the passing work, and Johnson gashed teams with designed runs. In fact, Johnson led the USFL in rushing yards (98) in Week 1, adding a touchdown scamper and 59 passing yards. Nevertheless, because he's in a two-quarterback committee, he's only a GPP option given the risk of a more pass-heavy attack favoring Perez.
Ta'amu is still the top quarterback, despite rushing only one time for seven yards and throwing two picks on his 32 passing attempts. The Maulers never challenged the Bandits, and Ta'amu demonstrated dual-threat ability in the XFL. I expect the Breakers to push the Bandits more on offense, bringing out the best in Ta'amu.
Sloter, the NFL preseason darling, didn't erupt in Week 1. However, he showcased his athleticism on four rushes for 30 yards. The Breakers jumped out to a lead and hardly had the ball in the first half because their touchdown came on a pick-six. As a result, head coach Larry Fedora was able to lean on his running game to his heart's delight. The Bandits should force them to keep pace in a game that I project to be the highest scoring on the slate. Thus, Sloter should put a better foot forward this week.
Finally, Scott didn't look like The Spring League (TSL) MVP, but he did lead the league in pass attempts (36), completions (25), and passing yards (202). Moreover, as Cody Main of Establish the Run noted on Twitter, the Stars were a pass-happy team, using three and four-wideout sets at an eye-popping rate.
This Philadelphia Stars offense will ultimately be fun for DFS (and the league) once it gets rolling.
* in 3- or 4-WR sets on 98.5% of plays
* using former converted WR Bug Howard in the slot
* one of few anti Establish It teams with a 72.3% dropback rate
— Cody Main (@cmain7) April 19, 2022
Sadly, Scott made some head-scratching decisions in Week 1, and his offensive line left him under duress often. Still, with a week under his belt adjusting to the upgrade in talent from TSL to the USFL, he's a good bet to improve in the league's most pass-friendly offense.
Running Backs
You only have to use one running back on DraftKings rosters, and since they have a full-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring format, I prefer to use just one back on most teams. B.J. Emmons was basically a bell-cow for the Bandits, handling the rock 19 times for 40 yards and a touchdown and adding three receptions for 23 yards. Therefore, he's the top back and priced accordingly.
Trey Williams is the only other legitimate featured back on the table above. The Generals cut Mike Weber after moving him to the practice squad last week. So, Weber isn't a threat to return and cut into Williams' workload. According to Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, Wiliams played 63% of New Jersey's offensive snaps, participating in 66% of the routes, trouncing Darius Victor in both marks at 37% and 22%, respectively. Additionally, the Generals want to run the ball down the opposition's throats, evidenced by 24 consecutive rush attempts at one point in the game.
My new favorite USFL team pic.twitter.com/itpESqp82a
— Coach Kenny Simpson (@fbcoachsimpson) April 17, 2022
If the game script is neutral or favorable for the Generals, Williams should get fed. Also, he should be game-script proof after hauling in all five of his targets for 38 yards. So, he's underpriced and my second-favorite back on the Week 2 slate.
T.J. Logan and C.J. Marable are in running-back-by-committee situations. However, each has the passing-game usage advantage, nudging them ahead of their teammates for DFS utility. Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Focus, Darnell Holland played only 44% of Philadelphia's offensive snaps with a 32% route participation rate versus a 56% snap share and 52% route participation for Matt Colburn. Holland could be in store for an uptick in usage, though. Colburn opened the week with a DNP because of a knee injury.
Tuesday Practice Report:
Bradley Sylve, CB: DNP (Ankle)
Artayvious Lynn, TE: DNP (Foot)
Gus Cumberlander, DE: DNP (Knee)
Ahmad Dixon, LB: Limited (Knee)
Matt Colburn, RB: DNP (Knee)
Devin Gray, WR: DNP (Ankle)— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 20, 2022
Even if Colburn plays, Holland has the wheels to ride efficiency to DFS viability. Holland showed his elite speed on a 42-yard touchdown run, bursting through the hole and erasing the advantageous angles of the defenders to splash pay dirt.
NOTHING BUT DAYLIGHT ?@yocrazylegs for 42 yards to paydirt!
?: @USA_Network | #USFLOpeningWeekend pic.twitter.com/Q5Yi1wgZJ8
— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 17, 2022
In addition, during the telecast, the broadcast team noted Holland aligning at wide receiver for one of his receptions. Unfortunately, the Stars lost their first game, but I love head coach Bart Andrus' willingness to move the explosive Holland around to get him the ball in space.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
I'm not going to touch on every player on the table. Instead, I'll mention I suggest stacking Philadelphia's receivers with Scott, the Breakers' pass-catchers with Sloter, etc. Two of the standout performers in Week 1, Randy Satterfield and Chris Rowland, are underpriced relative to what they did in Week 1. Satterfield looked like a man amongst boys in the league's first game, hauling in all five of his targets for a league-high 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. Satterfield showed excellent body control and concentration on the game's first play, making a challenging contested catch.
HOW ABOUT THAT FOR A FIRST PLAY.
Luis Perez hit Randy Satterfield for a 49-yard strike.
?: @FOXSports, @NBCSports & @PeacockTV pic.twitter.com/QKJ0NxcsnR
— New Jersey Generals (@USFLGenerals) April 16, 2022
Satterfield also did a great job hanging onto the ball when getting popped on his first touchdown.
It’s beautiful. ?
Perez connected with Satterfield again for the first Generals points of the 2022 season.
?: @FOXSports, @NBCSports & @PeacockTVpic.twitter.com/5SU4mDpVWS
— New Jersey Generals (@USFLGenerals) April 17, 2022
Further, he made a great adjustment on a deep ball while keeping his feet inbounds along the sideline.
World, meet Randy Satterfield. ?
?: @FOXSports, @NBCSports & @PeacockTV pic.twitter.com/kqptrfHj3s
— New Jersey Generals (@USFLGenerals) April 17, 2022
As for Rowland, according to Ian Hartitz, he earned Pro Football Focus's highest overall offensive grade in Week 1. He hauled in seven of nine targets for 74 yards. Unfortunately, he was a limited participant in Tuesday's practice with a shoulder injury.
Christian Rowland, WR: Limited (Shoulder)
Paul Nosworthy, OL: Full (Knee)— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 20, 2022
The fact he participated at all might indicate they're merely managing the injury. Playing armchair doctor watching the game on Sunday, I was concerned Rowland broke his collarbone after going down hard.
WHAT A CATCH ?
After the review, @crowland30 came down with it!
?: @USA_Network | #USFLOpeningWeekend pic.twitter.com/HYV9TtLfSK
— Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) April 17, 2022
Thankfully, he continued to play. Regardless, it makes sense to treat his shoulder cautiously.
Lance Lenoir Jr. and Osirus Mitchell were two more standouts with 6-71-1 and 5-96-1, respectively, on nine and seven targets.
Cheyenne O'Grady is a DFS lineup lock after leading the league in targets (11) and receptions (eight), tallying 86 yards. The tight end played 100% of Tampa Bay's snaps, and he wasn't a traditional tight end, participating in a route at a robust 91% rate.
Sal Cannella, a wide receiver to tight end convert, hauled in six of seven targets for 58 yards and was used as a big-bodied pass-catcher. Finally, speaking of big-bodied wideouts, Jordan Suell is a sneaky pick this week. Suell is 6'5" and 205 pounds, but he was nearly invisible in the opener, despite his imposing stature. The sky-scraper wideout caught just one of three targets for two yards. A look under the hood creates a reason for optimism, though. Suell led Philadelphia's receivers in snap rate (95%) and route participation rate (98%). So, I'm not sleeping on Suell's potential this week.
Defense and Special Teams
The theme of the defense picks is picking on bad quarterbacks and stale, conservative offenses. According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Stars are the biggest favorites this week, laying six points to the pathetic Maulers. Pittsburgh scored only three points in Week 1.
The Stallions are a top defense pick after generating pressure at a high rate in Week 1. Pro Football Focus credited Birmingham with pressuring the Generals on a jaw-dropping 68.8% of their dropbacks. This week, they might pile up sacks and turnovers against the unimpressive quarterbacking duo of Clayton Thorson and Kenji Bahar.
The Gamblers were a fearsome defense, too. They generated three sacks, forced four fumbles (recovering two), picked one pass off, held the Panthers to just 12 points, and scored a touchdown on one of the fumble recoveries.
Finally, the Generals square off against the Panthers team that took three sacks, fumbled four times, and threw one interception against the Gamblers.
USFL Week 2 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.