The NFL Draft is just days away, and the frenzy of 2022 mock drafts has reached peaked heights. Football analysts across the board are attempting to piece together plausible and convincing draft selections for all 32 teams. The primary rationale behind these choices usually comes down to “team need” or “best player available,” but there’s a third factor that isn’t considered enough: the historical track records of GMs and other decision-makers.
A massive chunk of what we (as mock drafters and bettors) do in projecting players and teams involves leveraging past information. If we want to create the most accurate predictive mock drafts to gain an edge in betting or fantasy football, then we need to utilize all the information at our disposal. You’d be surprised how obstinate some NFL personnel are when it comes to draft strategy year over year.
Here’s a look at the recent history of all 32 NFL front offices and how their draft tendencies and current roster makeup set each team up heading into the 2022 NFL Draft.
- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Last season, the writing was on the wall that the Jaguars were primed to draft a running back. Trent Baalke spent 2011-2016 with the San Francisco 49ers and drafted a running back in every single draft. Five of the six RBs were taken in Round 4 or earlier.
Needless to say, it was not shocking to see the team select Travis Etienne Jr. in the first round. I doubt they will draft another RB that high this season, but don’t rule them out of the RB conversation in Round 3 or 4.
Michigan running back Hassan Haskins recently visited the Jaguars during the pre-draft process.
The other major trend I noticed was Baalke’s targeting of defensive backs. He used a third-round pick or better on a safety/cornerback in six of seven drafts. Last season, the Jags drafted cornerback Tyson Campbell in Round 2 and defensive back Andre Cisco in Round 3.
They’ve met with safety prospect Kerby Joseph this offseason.
As a side note, Baalke does have a reputation and strong drafting record of gravitating towards players with long arms, which creates some doubt that Aidan Hutchinson is the selection at first overall. The former Wolverine has 32⅛” arms (7th percentile). Conversely, Travon Walker boasts 35½” arms (95th percentile).
Just some food for thought that Jacksonville may opt for guys with long arms like Walker, DT Perrion Winfrey and OT Matt Waletzko.
- DETROIT LIONS
Second-year head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes smashed their first pick as members of the organization in 2021.
Holmes’ experience with the Los Angeles Rams in various executive roles dating back to 2003 was apparent when the Lions decided on offensive tackle Penei Sewell with the 7th overall pick last season. From 2014 to 2016 – the last time L.A. had actual draft picks – the Rams invested significant draft capital in the tackle position. Holmes knows creating a QB-friendly environment is key to long-term success.
Sewell is joined by Jared Goff, Todd Gurley II, Aaron Donald, and Greg Robinson as the last five first-rounders Holmes had a hand in selecting.
On Day 2 of the 2021 NFL Draft, Holmes selected DL Levi Onwuzurike, DT Alim McNeil, and DB Ifeatu Melifonwu.
Onwuzurike’s closest NFL comp per Mockdraftable.com is Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. Onwuzurike (76th percentile) and McNeil (83rd percentile) also posted strong 10-yard splits -76th percentile or better – which could be an indicator of something the Lions highly regard in their draft targets.
Melifonwu also posted a solid 10-yard split in his testing (92nd percentile).
Some of the top testers in the 10-yard split from this year’s class that Detroit could target include WR Skyy Moore (97th percentile), OL Kellen Diesch (93rd percentile), OT Tyler Smith (90th percentile), EDGE Jermaine Johnson (98th percentile), DT Perrion Winfrey (83rd percentile), DT Logan Hall (83rd percentile), LB Troy Andersen (97th percentile), LB Brian Asamoah (87th percentile), S Daxton Hill (97th percentile), CB Tariq Woolen (92nd percentile) and CB Cam Taylor-Britt (74th percentile).
Georgia defender Travon Walker is the odds-on favorite (+275) to be the No. 2 selection by the Lions, but Jermaine Johnson’s absurd 10-yard split time has opened my eyes to the possibility he could be the second overall pick.
Johnson played for the American team coached by the Lions at the Senior Bowl, so if any team knows Johnson inside and out, it’s the Lions. Especially considering Johnson’s colossal rise up the mock drafts stems from his outstanding Senior Bowl outing.
Betting Johnson at +2500 to be the second overall pick is a long-shot draft bet that I can get behind.
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- HOUSTON TEXANS (FIRST-ROUND PICKS: 3 AND 13)
Nick Caserio enters Year 2 as the Houston Texans GM and finally has first-round picks to work with. Top to bottom, this looks like one of the NFL’s worst rosters that have needs at almost every position.
Caserio invested his top three draft picks last year on offensive skill players – Davis Mills, Nico Collins, and Brevin Jordan – so addressing the defensive side of the ball in 2022 makes a lot of logical sense. Especially with a defensive-minded head coach in Lovie Smith taking over.
Stemming from the Belichick tree suggests that Caserio will put a premium on pass coverage over pass rush, so look for Houston to invest in their atrocious secondary in Round 1 heavily.
From a testing perspective, Caserio’s 2021 draft picks also show a pattern of testing well in the three-cone drill.
Some of the top performers in the three-cone drill from this year’s class that may be on the Texans’ radar include OT Abraham Lucas (98th percentile), OT Trevor Penning (98th percentile), OL Cole Strange (89th percentile), S Daxton Hill (97th percentile), S Jalen Pitre (86th percentile), LB Darrian Beavers (80th percentile), LB Terrel Bernard (66th percentile), EDGE Nik Bonitto (75th percentile), DT Logan Hall (90th percentile) and DT Thomas Booker (80th percentile).
- NEW YORK JETS (FIRST-ROUND PICKS: 4 AND 10)
Jets GM Joe Douglas was hired in 2019, shortly after the 2019 NFL Draft. Douglas had input into the 2020 and 2021 drafts when the team primarily addressed needs.
Quarterback Zack Wilson, OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, wide receiver Elijah Moore, and running back Michael Carter all filled holes in the roster, so I’d assume the Jets plan to attack this year’s draft similarly.
The only minor takeaway I had from their 2020 draft was that their top five selections all stemmed from Power Five schools. 2021 followed suit except for Wilson heralding from BYU. Although BYU will join the Big 12 – and the Power 5 – in 2022.
The Jets will most likely address either WR and/or EDGE with their two top picks. I have an inkling they might favor players with elite athletic testing numbers as they go further in the draft as well.
Vera-Tucker and Moore posted awe-inspiring results at their pro days and ended up being two of the Jets’ top three picks last season.
Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux checks off many prospect boxes that Douglas typically drafts. Thibodeaux’s 4.58 40-yard dash ranks in the 93rd percentile, and his 10-yard split ranks in the 87th percentile. He went to a Power Five school and looked the part as an athletic specimen.
He also showcased his athleticism at Oregon’s Pro Day on April 1st, bolstering his case as the Jets’ pick at No. 4 overall.
https://twitter.com/craiglaurasam/status/1516015074418343943
Secondary, offensive line, and defensive tackle round out the remaining needs for the Jets with their three remaining picks inside the top-70. Based on Douglas’ track record, the names to keep tabs on landing with Gang Green include tackle Abraham Lucas, safety Lewis Cine, cornerback Kaiir Elam, defensive tackle Perrion Winfrey, linebacker Brandon Smith, and defensive back Tariq Carpenter.
- NEW YORK GIANTS (FIRST-ROUND PICKS: 5 AND 7)
Out with the old, in with the new. Big Blue cleaned house this offseason, hiring Brian Daboll as head coach and Joe Schoen as general manager. Both guys spent their last several seasons with the Buffalo Bills. Management/ownership understands they need to put Daniel Jones in a position to succeed this season to identify him as their long-term answer at quarterback.
Schoen operated under Bills GM Brandon Beane since the 2017 season, with the latter bringing a well-balanced approach to the draft. The one position Beane attacked aggressively in the early rounds – and I’d assume Schoen would follow a similar approach – was the defensive line. Case in point, last season, Buffalo drafted two defensive linemen – Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham – with their first two picks followed by two selections across the offensive line. Outside DL, the remaining positions he’s targeted most include running back, wide receiver, cornerback and offensive line.
It’s no secret that Big Blue will select an offensive lineman with one of their top-7 picks, but the other looks strongly like a defensive lineman based on Schoen’s track record.
Also, for fantasy purposes, don’t sleep on the Giants adding a running back. They’ve been non-committal on Saquon Barkley long-term and have hosted a slue of RBs like James Cook, Breece Hall, Brian Robinson Jr., and Pierre Strong Jr. during the pre-draft process.
- CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers hired new general manager Scott Fitterer in 2021 after he spent the past 20 years working several different positions with the Seattle Seahawks. Fitterer was brought in to replace long-time GM Marty Hurney, who was fired near the end of last season.
Disagreements in approach were present between the old GM and owner; the former wanted to maintain his traditional MO, while the latter wanted to embrace a more modern and data-driven approach.
Taking a relatively low-cost flier on quarterback Sam Darnold last season shows that Carolina is operating more by the numbers, and we should anticipate them implementing a similar strategy during the draft.
Case in point: There’s no way we see the Panthers invest their first-round pick on defense as they did in 2021. Fitterer saw firsthand in Seattle how impactful poor OL play can be; Russell Wilson has been the most-sacked QB since entering the NFL ten seasons ago.
Adding a pass-protector upfront in Round 1 would match Seattle’s drafting philosophy to a tee. However, that’s only if they do not elect to select a quarterback. Baker Mayfield has been rumored to call Carolina his new home in 2022, so going the veteran route would allow them the luxury of foregoing the QB position in the draft.
Carolina would trade down from this spot in a perfect world and pick up extra picks with none inside the top-100 after the sixth overall pick.
Fitterer traded down plenty in his first year as general manager during the 2021 NFL Draft. His first two selections – Jaycee Horn and Terrace Marshall Jr. – were two uber athletes from the SEC.
It’s hard to imagine they pass on Alabama’s tackle Evan Neal if he is there at No. 6.
- ATLANTA FALCONS
GM Terry Fontenot spent 18 years with the New Orleans Saints serving in roles that included director of scouting and assistant general manager before becoming GM of the Atlanta Falcons last season. It’s impossible to pinpoint precisely where Fontenot’s input on the roster weighed most heavily, so we have to look at his time spent with the Saints with a wide lens.
It’s worth noting that Fontenot also brought in former regional scout Dwaune Jones as his new director of college scouting last season, and Jones knows a thing or two about WR/TE hybrid players. Per the Falcons’ official website, he helped the team sign Marques Colston during his tenure at the Saints. So unsurprisingly, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts higher than any other tight end in NFL history in 2021.
I think it’s telling that they did not invest in a quarterback last season – despite the loaded class – so I highly doubt that’s the direction they go in Round 1 amid a much weaker draft class in 2022.
Fontenot focused last year’s draft mostly on cornerbacks, defensive linemen, and offensive linemen, so that’s where I’d lean them going once again with their roster in a total rebuild.
Wide receiver and running back are also glaring holes on the roster, but it’s hard to determine how much they’ll invest in those skill positions with the team already looking ahead to 2024.
- SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
John Schneider didn’t have a first-round pick to work with last season, but we can still leverage his body of work to identify potential targets for the Seahawks in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft.
Since 2010, Seattle has spent the majority of its draft picks inside the top-four rounds on wide receivers, interior offensive line, and defensive linemen. Two of those three positions (DL, OL) match what the Seahawks need, which makes it easier to predict what they will do with three picks inside the top-75 to go along with their top-10 selection.
If they don’t draft a quarterback at nine overall – or trade back – pass-rusher/franchise tackle would be the next priority option for the Seahawks.
- WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Martin Mayhew was hired by the WFT over the last offseason. This is his second stint as an NFL GM; he previously served the same role for the Lions from 2008 to 2015. The major findings from his tenure in Detroit reveal that linemen were a priority with his first-round picks, and CBs/WRs/RBs reflected the bulk of his second-and-third-round selections.
Six of his nine first-round picks were either OL or DL, with the only exceptions being Matthew Stafford and Eric Ebron. In addition to taking Ebron early, Mayhew also invested a high pick on tight end Brandon Pettigrew.
In last year’s draft, Washington went linebacker in the first round with Jamin Davis, followed by tackle Samuel Cosmi, cornerback Benjamin St-Juste and wide receiver Dyami Brown. Outside the linebacker position, it was par for the course in a Mayhew-led draft approach. They even drafted tight end John Bates in Round 4.
What’s also interesting is that the Lions under the Mayhew regime drafted four running backs inside the first three rounds. Washington has hosted top running back prospects like Breece Hall, Brian Robinson Jr., Isaiah Spiller, and Kenneth Walker III during the pre-draft process.
It might be wise to sell “high” on Antonio Gibson in dynasty formats with the idea of him being a three-down running back trending in the wrong direction.
- MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Ex-Vikings GM Rick Speilman’s draft tendencies included targeting running backs, cornerbacks, and tackles with premium picks. But he also never drafted a defensive end with a first- or second-round pick.
The Vikings new general manager, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, seems primed to flip the script on avoiding edge rushers/defensive linemen with high-end draft capital with his roots tied to the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers. He was part of the teams that drafted Solomon Thomas, Nick Bosa, and Arik Armstead in the first round.
But like Speilman, Adofo-Mensah also knows the merits of investing in defensive backs and tackles. The Browns drafted Greg Newsome, Grant Delpit, and Jedrick Wills with their last top draft picks over the previous two seasons.
And when the 49ers weren’t drafting defensive linemen, they were selecting a mix of defensive backs and OL like Eric Reid, Jimmie Ward, Jaquiski Tartt, and Mike McGlinchey. The linebacker was also a very popular position in Rounds 3 & 4.
- BALTIMORE RAVENS
Eric DeCosta took over GM duties in 2019 after serving as the assistant GM for eight years. In his three drafts as the head honcho, Baltimore spent the majority of their top picks (inside the first four rounds) on wide receivers, defensive linemen, offensive guards, running backs, and cornerbacks.
The Ravens were one of the teams courting Melvin Gordon, suggesting that they aren’t finished looking for another running back. They have been extremely active with running back pre-draft visits.
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Howie Roseman is no stranger to selecting wide receivers early on, having selected one in the top two rounds over the last three seasons, two of which have been first-round picks. WR is firmly back in play with one of the Eagles two 2022 first-round picks, and I have an inkling they will target one that can offer YAC-ability like Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, or Garrett Wilson.
The Eagles finished second in screen pass rate in 2021.
They also seem very interested in Chris Olave, with him drawing close comparisons to Calvin Ridley. Philly was reported to be “in” trading for Ridley before being suspended.
With their other picks, the Eagles are a prime candidate to go with an edge defender. Roseman has invested luxury picks in the position before.
- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Long-time Saints GM Mickey Loomis has had his hands on the team’s roster dating back to 2002. He picked up an additional title as executive vice president in 2013, so that’s an appropriate spot to reference his drafting history.
Since then, the positions he’s invested the most in Day 1 or 2 draft picks include defensive backs, linebackers, wide receivers, and tackles.
Considering wide receiver and tackle highlight the team’s biggest needs heading into the draft, those are precise positions they will address with picks 16 and 19.
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Tom Telesco has been the Chargers’ general manager since 2013. He struck gold by drafting offensive rookie of the year Justin Herbert in 2020 and Ra’Shawn Slater in 2021, but the roster still has some holes that need to be addressed – most notably offensive tackle and linebacker.
Telesco has drafted seven offensive linemen in the top three rounds – the most of any position. If L.A. feels comfortable with the top tackle on the board (most likely Charles Cross, Trevor Penning, Tyler Smith), that’s the direction they’re likely to go.
After that, Telesco invested many picks in linebackers, wide receivers, and running backs. Not necessarily all high-end capital, but a plethora of dart-throws.
Don’t be shocked if they add a speedy wide receiver with the 79th overall pick. Calvin Austin III, perhaps?
- PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers’ organization is well known for drafting WRs that seemingly outperform their draft day position. Since Kevin Colbert became the GM in 2010, they’ve drafted the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool outside the first round.
The Steelers are solid atop their receiver depth chart with Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, but the depth behind them is bleak. They’ve drafted a total of nine WRs inside the top four rounds over that time – the most of any position. I have no doubt that the Steelers have a scouting system that works when identifying WR prospects, but the sheer volume of the receivers they draft increases their odds. Don’t think Pittsburgh won’t take a WR they like in Round 3 or 4.
Some notable wide receivers they have met with include David Bell, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, and Christian Watson. Dotson fits the mold of the next great Steelers wide receiver.
The next three most popular selections by Colbert’s Steelers are linebacker, defensive back, and offensive line. O-line sticks out the most because it’s been a hot second since Pittsburgh last drafted an offensive lineman in the top two rounds (2012). Even last season, they failed to add anyone until Round 3.
They were able to continually pass on the position because they’ve had such a great line in recent years. That’s no longer the case.
After those positions, there’s an obvious need for a quarterback. The Steelers have not been shy about making their draft plans known to the media and the other 31 teams. Last year everybody knew they were going to select Najee Harris, and this year it seems set in stone they will draft a quarterback at some point – most likely at pick No. 20.
Head coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Kevin Colbert have been highly involved in Pro Days featuring this year’s top rookie quarterbacks.
- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ stand-in GM since being hired in 2000. This draft will be the 13th time the Patriots hold a 1st-round pick outside the top-20. Historically speaking, it’s been a near split in terms of offense or defense selected with these second-half first-round picks.
However, the most common position selected has been defensive tackle – with three selections since 2004. They have also drafted running back (cringe), offensive line, and defensive back twice in this spot.
New England filled the majority of its team needs with aggressive spending in free agency in 2021, so they are in a position to take the highest player on the board available at No. 21.
Many will harp on the Patriots to take a wide receiver in Round 1, but it’s just not in Bill Belichick’s DNA to pay up at that position. And when he has, it’s never panned out: i.e., N’Keal Harry, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson.
Regardless, they need to surround Mac Jones with weapons. After losing Ted Karras and Shaq Mason, the interior offensive line also needs some love.
Their defense desperately needs speed, especially at the linebacker position. Last year’s unit looked like they were playing underwater at times. Patriots linebacker coach Jerod Mayo spoke on a local Patriots radio station that, “the team is looking to get faster, more explosive and put more playmakers on the field.”
The secondary is also in play. New England is currently running it back with guys way past their prime in Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty.
- GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers haven’t used a single first-round pick on a skill-position player since drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005. That goes well beyond the tenure of Brian Gutekunst, who has been the team’s GM since the start of 2018.
Even so, it’s flabbergasting that Green Bay has yet to surround Rodgers with elite offensive weaponry. Could 2022 be the year they buck the trend?
Gutekunst has drafted plenty of wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends over the past three drafts, but few have turned into productive pros.
The Packers general manager is apparently willing to add weapons; I’m hoping they can address their glaring weakness at wide receiver early in the draft now that the team has moved on from Marques-Valdes Scantling and Davante Adams.
If not, I’d guess they look to the defensive secondary as an alternative. Three of the team’s six highest draft picks have been on defensive backs since 2018.
Green Bay has also drafted a center in each of the last three drafts – two of which have been selected inside the top-65. Tyler Linderbaum might be in the second half of the 1st round.
- ARIZONA CARDINALS
Steve Keim has been the Cardinals’ GM since 2013 and deserves partial credit for the team’s decision to move on from Josh Rosen in favor of Kyler Murray in 2019.
What stands out about Keim’s draft record is that he drafts a plethora of wide receivers, defensive linemen, and cornerbacks in the early rounds, with DL being the most prominent.
They added veterans at some of the aforementioned positions in A.J. Green and Jeff Gladney, but I doubt that sways them from continuing to bolster those areas in the draft.
The defensive line is a great area of need with Corey Peters, a free agent, and OLB pass-rusher Chandler Jones in Las Vegas. The Cardinals were a bottom-10 run defense in terms of yards per carry in 2021, and Jones led the squad in total pressures.
- DALLAS COWBOYS
Jerry Jones has been in charge since 1989, but we won’t go that far back with the game of football having changed so dramatically over the past decade.
Since 2010, the Cowboys have drafted four cornerbacks (two first-rounders, three second-rounders) with meaningful draft capital: Trevon Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, Byron Jones, Morris Claiborne, and Kelvin Joseph.
After defensive backs, it’s been a lot of pass-rushers, offensive linemen, and wide receivers that Big D has targeted in recent drafts with draft capital in the first three rounds.
Those tendencies align with Dallas’ top draft needs in 2022 (OL, WR, DE/EDGE).
- BUFFALO BILLS
Brandon Beane has been the Bills’ GM since 2017 and deserves praise for not only drafting quarterback Josh Allen but building a roster that aided in his development.
Beane has been a pretty balanced drafter over the past five seasons, with the defensive line the only position he has taken extra shots on in the early rounds. Outside DL, the remaining positions he’s targeted most include running back, wide receiver, cornerback and offensive line.
As one of the most complete teams in the league, Buffalo has a variety of ways they could approach this selection. In my NFL mock draft 5.0, I followed the precedent set by Beane to add running backs and aligned them with Breece Hall.
- TENNESSEE TITANS
Jon Robinson has been the Titans’ GM since 2016, and one of the positions he has invested the most draft capital in has been at wide receiver. Among picks in the top three rounds, receivers slightly edge out all other positions.
Only one was a first-round pick (Corey Davis), which leaves some chance that they ultimately go for a tackle. Before drafting Isaiah Wilson in 2020, Robinson had his hand in selecting Jack Conklin in the first round during the 2016 draft. He also selected North Dakota State offensive tackle Dillon Radunz 53rd overall in 2021.
Also worth mentioning that Robinson has had no fear of scooping up players that fall due to injury concerns. Robinson was more than happy to select both Jeffery Simmons (2019, 19th overall) and Caleb Farley (2021, 22nd overall) in past drafts amid massive injury concerns.
So don’t be surprised if they take a leap of faith with edge rusher David Ojabo or cornerback Andrew Booth – projected 1st-rounders that may fall into Day 2 because of recent injuries.
- TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Buccaneers GM Jason Licht doesn’t have many holes to fill on the roster and can focus on adding talented playmakers. Having little-to-no holes makes it challenging to predict who the Bucs will select at No. 27 overall, but a quick peek into Licht’s past can provide us with some guidance.
In the Licht era, the Bucs have taken cornerbacks most often during Rounds 1-4. It’s not much of a need based on the Bucs’ three starting corners – Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean-Murphy Bunting – but teams can never feel bad about having too many guys to help cover. It would be wise to plan ahead with Bunting and Dean hitting free agency in 2023.
After corner, the next most-drafted positions were safety, running back, and defensive line.
- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Like Beane, Brett Veach has been his team’s GM since 2017. Being part of the staff that drafted Patrick Mahomes II seemingly makes Veach impervious to criticism, but there are still takeaways to be gained from his overall drafting history.
He’s drafted a defensive lineman in three of the last five drafts in the top three rounds. Last year was also marked the second consecutive season the team drafted an offensive lineman in the first four rounds since 2017 (Creed Humphrey).
The Chiefs have a significant hole at wide receiver after losing Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson this offseason. The team signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to stretch the field on the outside and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot, but I doubt they are done adding to the position.
They have shown a lot of interest in Christian Watson, George Pickens, and Samori Toure during the pre-draft process.
- CINCINNATI BENGALS
Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin has been running the show as the team’s de facto general manager since as early as 2013. Over that time, he’s been no stranger to investing high-end draft capital into offensive linemen.
Since 2015, the Bengals have drafted five offensive linemen (Cedric Ogbuehi, Jake Fisher, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, and Jackson Carman) with first- or second-round picks. They’ve selected a wide receiver in the first round (John Ross, Ja’Marr Chase twice. Their other recent highly drafted WRs have been second-rounders (Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins).
It’s clear that bolstering OL/WR is something the Bengals are not shy of doing as they look to get back to the Super Bowl, even if they appear set at each position post-free agency.
In Rounds 3-4, I’d keep an eye out for the Bengals to target linebackers. They’ve drafted a linebacker in the third round for seven consecutive seasons. But with a need at perimeter cornerback, 2021 might be the year they buck the trend in the middle rounds.
TEAMS WITH NO FIRST-ROUND PICK:
- CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears franchise is caught between a rock and a hard place, with seemingly no long-term plan in place. New general manager Ryan Poles takes over a roster with no first-round draft capital and glaring roster needs at wide receiver, offensive line, and cornerback.
The Bears’ most significant need is across the offensive line, partly due to Ryan Pace failing to draft any OL with Day 2 picks from 2018 until Teven Jenkins in 2021. Since becoming the Bears’ general manager, that was Pace’s first tackle drafted in the top-4 rounds.
It’s a glaring issue for their roster, so I’d bet Poles goes OL with one of the Bears’ two early second-rounders. Poles spent the last three seasons as part of the Chiefs player personnel department – which has taken a newer approach to bolstering the offensive line in the early rounds.
- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Unlike Pace, Chris Ballard has thrived as general manager for the Indianapolis Colts. Hired in 2017, Ballard is regarded as one of the league’s sharpest executives because of his exemplary drafting and roster-building approach.
He understands the harmony required when debating a player’s fit versus the best player available. For that reason, I expected Ballard to address the team’s flagrant lack of pass rush with an edge defender in the 2021 NFL Draft.
They did just that by double-dipping on the defensive line with Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. Ballard has now drafted pass-rushers with Day 2 picks in every prior draft except 2020.
With the pass rush still worth improving and offensive tackle still an area of need, look for Indy to target the trenches on Day 2.
- CLEVELAND BROWNS
Andrew Berry was brought on as the Browns’ general manager in 2020 after a brief stint with the Eagles in 2019. This would be Berry’s second go-around with Cleveland, as he previously worked as the VP of player personnel from 2016 to 2018.
Berry nailed 2020’s first-round selection of tackle Jedrick Wills, who helped Cleveland boast one of the league’s best offensive lines. He then got insane value with linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in Round 2 of last year’s draft.
During the Browns’ drafts from 2016-2018, the one common denominator was a focus on pass-rush, with DEs chosen with Day 1 or Day 2 selections each season. It wasn’t until 2020 that Berry shifted focus away from pass-rush in favor of OL and defensive back.
With the OL in excellent shape, I’d guess that Berry will be looking hard again at this pass-rush class based on how the team operated when he was the VP of player personnel. It’s possible Berry didn’t like what he saw at the position in 2021, which led to the signing of free agent Jadeveon Clowney instead of drafting pressure generators.
This class is very deep on the edge, so I fully anticipate the Browns adding a defender to get after the quarterback.
The other difference I noticed between the Browns from 2016-2018 and 2020-2021 was at linebacker. Berry’s Browns took a linebacker with a Day 2 pick in the last two drafts. Outside of John Dorsey selecting Sione Takitaki in 2019, the prolonged drought at the position has left the Browns’ linebacking corps wanting depth.
After that, safety is the remaining need on defense. On offense, adding another receiver opposite Amari Cooper is a priority.
- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers have gone defensive with their first selection in three of the last five drafts, so I assume they’ll look to add depth at the cornerback position after locking up their franchise quarterback in last year’s draft.
Signing Charvarius Ward to play across Emmanuel Moseley is excellent for the perimeter, but the slot cornerback role needs to be enhanced.
The highest cornerback drafted by the 49ers since 2017 is the 6-foot-3 and 198-pound Ahkello Witherspoon. Even with DeMeco Ryans replacing Robert Saleh, I don’t expect S.F. to shy away from utilizing long cornerbacks.
Last year’s third-round pick CB Ambry Thomas stood at 6 feet with 79th percentile arm length. Defensive back prospects Tariq Woolen, Martin Emerson, Kerby Joseph, and Joshua Williams all boast 90th percentile or better arm length in this year’s class.
The defensive tackle role could also use more depth; Kentavius Street (Saints) and D.J. Jones (Denver) won’t be back with the team. Jones finished with the fifth-most tackles from the interior in 2021.
San Fran brought Hassan Ridgeway in through free agency, but he finished as PFF’s third-worst graded run defender last season.
The offensive line could take a small step backward because the 49ers were unable to keep LG Laken Tomlinson and RT Tom Compton.
- DENVER BRONCOS
George Paton agreed to a six-year deal as the new Broncos general manager during the 2021 offseason. Before landing in the Mile High City, Paton spent the past nine years working in Minnesota as Rick Spielman’s assistant general manager.
Interesting trends I found from past Vikings drafts with Paton on staff involve running backs, cornerbacks, and tackles.
The Vikings have had no issue investing Day 2 capital into the RB position (Jerick McKinnon, Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison).
And the Broncos did just that in Paton’s first draft with the team after selecting Javonte Williams in the second round (35th overall). Perhaps Paton’s former Minnesota ties to Dalvin Cook will be enough to have Denver select his brother James Cook in this year’s draft.
The Broncos were also loaded at cornerback but still drafted Patrick Surtain II anyway along with three other defensive backs.
The one position they didn’t address last year was tackle – and it remains the top priority for the Broncos with their three Day 2 picks. Last year’s starters at RT – Bobby Massie and Cameron Fleming – are unsigned free agents. And they only added Billy Turner in free agency.
- LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Mike Mayock Raiders would surely overdraft a defensive tackle in this draft, but I am slightly optimistic that under a new regime, they can get better value in the first round with the ex-Patriots HC/GM pairing of Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler.
They won’t be too busy during the early portion of the NFL draft after trading away their top two picks for Davante Adams. However, once they are on the clock, they will most likely look at more offensive line, linebacker, defensive line, and cornerback – staying true to the Patriots drafting model.
The team re-signed Brandon Parker at right tackle, but he allowed the most QB pressures per game among qualifying tackles in 2021. Alex Leatherwood was equally as horrible at right tackle before moving inside to right guard.
Las Vegas revamped their defensive line through free agency but could always use more pass-rush help in a loaded AFC West. The Raiders also added a bunch of different cornerbacks in free agency, but it remains to be seen how well the unit will gel in their first season together. Also, you can never have too many solid cornerbacks.
Linebacker could use additional depth with little financial investment thrown at the position outside Micah Kiser and Jayon Brown.
- MIAMI DOLPHINS
Chris Grier took over as the Miami Dolphins general manager in 2016 after serving as the team’s director of college scouting for nine years. He’s partially responsible for the franchise’s upward trajectory, as the selection of tackle Laremy Tunsil in the 2016 NFL Draft is reaping endless additional first-round picks.
Some interesting nuggets from tracking Grier’s draft history reveal that he has drafted more running backs (Kenyan Drake, Kalen Ballage) and tight ends (Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Hunter Long) than wide receivers in the first four rounds (Jaylen Waddle, Leonte Carroo). Before Waddle’s selection in 2021, Gesicki was his highest-drafted pass-catcher as a second-round selection in 2018.
As for the running backs, the team’s reliance on analytics and track record indicates to me that they won’t end up using any worthwhile late-round picks on a runner, despite what the mock drafts say.
They “needed” a running back last season and drafted Gerrid Doaks in the seventh round. Entering the 2016 draft (Grier’s first as GM), they had just lost leading rusher Lamar Miller. They addressed the position in that draft by adding Kenyan Drake in the third round (73rd overall). The fifth-round pick from the previous year, Jay Ajayi, rushed for 1,272 yards to Drake’s 179 the following season.
If any NFL team knows that “RBs don’t matter,” it’s the numbers-driven Dolphins.
The Dolphins haven’t drafted a running back in the top 50 since taking Ronnie Brown second overall. The early 2000s were wild.
It's more likely than not it will be the Chase Edmonds/Raheem Mostert show with another body added with one of the Dolphins' two 7th-round picks or single 4th-round pick.
Defensively, Miami is in pretty solid shape. Linebacker is where they can improve the most with one of their late-round draft picks. But other than that small need, this team is pretty set on paper.
- LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams haven't had a first-round pick in the past five seasons, and that trend will continue into 2022 and 2023. It's been a minute since our Rams have been active on the draft's opening night.
Instead, Les Snead and company will be sitting poolside mapping out Day 3 with margaritas in hand.
Based on what Snead has done since becoming the GM in 2012, I think they'll put "strength on strength" by adding even more talent to their secondary. They've drafted more defensive backs in the first three rounds than any other position.
They need to back-fill their roster in the draft with the talent they lost in free agency-cornerback, defensive tackle, offensive line, and edge highlight the needs.
The other heavily drafted positions include running back, wide receiver, and tackle. Considering they went back-to-back WR and LB in last year's draft with their top two picks, I'd lean toward offensive tackle if they don't draft a defensive back at 104.
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