This is The Watchlist.
The Watchlist is a weekly column designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. Whether they’re waiver wire or trade targets, these are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity or trade target in a week or two.
Using underlying and advanced metrics, The Watchlist will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards later from your pickups.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA.
They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and a different kind of player entirely. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve of your league mates.
The payoff might not be immediate, but they should eventually provide notable value, more often than not.
These are some of those players for this week.
Suppose you missed out on one of the premier catching options in the draft and are currently starting someone like Christian Vazquez (C – BOS) or Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR) or are mixing and matching with streamers until Adley Rutschman (C – BAL) is ready to debut. In that case, Diaz might be the catcher for you.
The backstop was reasonably productive last season, collecting 18 home runs and 22 barrels in 371 plate appearances while hitting .246 with a .310 on-base percentage.
That power production indeed translated into fantasy production. Diaz finished the year as the sixth-highest scoring catcher in standard scoring, head-to-head ESPN leagues last season, ahead of backstops like Willson Contreras (C – CHC), Tyler Stephenson (C – CIN), and Mike Zunino (C – TB).
It was only his second season in the Majors reaching double-digit home runs, but it doesn’t look like the power is going away anytime soon – at least if early returns in 2022 are anything to go by.
Diaz had already amassed four barrels at the start of play on Thursday, the third-most in the league. He only has one home run to show for it.
In fact, if you delve into his expected home runs numbers, Diaz would already have three long balls if he were playing all his games in some parks (Baltimore’s Camden Yards, Chicago’s Wrigley Field, Los Angeles’ Dodger Stadium, and New York’s Citi Field). In 21 of the other 30 stadiums, his expected home run tally is at two.
He’s also generally hitting the ball hard, which improved markedly after finishing in the 32nd percentile league-wide in hard-hit rate last season. Already, Diaz has put three balls in play with an exit velocity of at least 107 MPH, and he only had 16 such instances all of last season.
The home run numbers are going to start creeping up for Diaz. If he’s available in your league – and you need a catcher – pick him up on waivers now before anyone else does.
The bullpen looked like a potential strength for the Detroit Tigers early on, with Andrew Chafin (RP – DET) joining a late-inning group that also included closer Gregory Soto (RP – DET), high-leverage ace Michael Fulmer (RP – DET), and right-hander Jose Cisnero (RP – DET).
Lange was likely to be in the late-inning mix, though not necessarily as a primary option.
But injuries to Chafin, Cisnero, and Kyle Funkhouser (RP – DET) have cemented Lange’s role as a high-leverage option early on, a position he found plenty of success in down the stretch last season.
The former first-round pick thrived in his final 18.2 innings of 2021 from August 22 onward. It was a small sample size, to be sure, but it showcased his potential effectiveness and bat-missing ability.
From August 22 through the end of the 2021 season:
- Ryan Pressly (RP – HOU): 15 IP, 12.00 K/9, 14.8% SwStr%, 2.40 BB/9, 0 home runs allowed, 3.60 ERA, 2.17 FIP
- Jordan Romano (RP – TOR): 18.2 IP, 12.05 K/9, 14.1% SwStr%, 2.41 BB/9, 0 home runs allowed, 1.45 ERA, 2.85 FIP
- Alex Lange: 18.2 IP, 8.68 K/9, 18.2% SwStr%, 2.89 BB/9, 0 home runs allowed, 1.45 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Of course, it’s easy to handpick numbers from a specific period. However, except for a down appearance in his third outing, Lange has brought similar bat-missing stuff this season.
Nine of his first 30 pitches this year were swinging strikes, and they all came exclusively on his slider and changeup.
He’s also been used in high-leverage spots against opposing lineups’ best hitters early on.
In his first outing against the White Sox, Hinch summoned him with the heart of the White Sox order (Jose Abreu (1B – CWS), Luis Robert (OF – CWS), and AJ Pollock (OF – CWS)) due up. Lange then faced Rafael Devers (3B – BOS), Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS), J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS), and Alex Verdugo (OF – BOS) in his first outing against Boston and Enrique Hernandez (2B, OF – BOS), Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez in his second outing against the Red Sox.
That Hinch has trusted him in high-leverage spots could be crucial moving forward. The injuries may have had something to do with it, but there’s no denying his upside.
And if he can maintain this role for the rest of the season, it could lead to save opportunities.
In our never-ending search for saves as fantasy managers, it can sometimes be the setup reliever who gets a save here or there that makes all the difference. That reliever could be Lange, especially in this bullpen.
Soto and Fulmer are Detroit’s two best relievers, with Soto the preferred option in the ninth inning. But, Hinch has utilized both earlier in the game when the situation has called for it.
And while Soto and Fulmer seem like surefire bets to finish first and second on this Tigers team in saves, Lange could flirt with double-digit saves by the time the year is through. Of course, that’s not a surefire thing, but after Soto (18 saves) and Fulmer (14) in 2021, six different Detroit relievers combined for 10 saves, including Cisnero with four. It’s not hard to see Lange absorbing the bulk of those extra save chances if he keeps missing bats.
Plus, Detroit should be much improved in 2022, so their save opportunities as a team will likely increase.
In saves+holds league, Lange is already a viable option, but he has the potential to gain some relevancy in deeper standard scoring leagues thanks to how Hinch utilizes his bullpen.
We stay in the Motor City with Jeimer Candelario, who is coming off a strong 2021 season in which he hit .271 with a .351 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, and a 10.4% walk rate in 626 plate appearances.
It was a solid fantasy season, but the relative lack of home runs kept Candelario outside the top tier of fantasy third baseman. In fact, per NFBC ADP data, 19 different third basemen are currently coming off the board before the 28-year-old is being drafted.
In his first 25 plate appearances, all at home, Candelario has yet to hit a home run.
That and a .143 average probably have him on the waiver wire in most leagues. As of Thursday afternoon, he’s rostered in 24% of Yahoo leagues.
However, those numbers won’t stay that way if he keeps making quality contact.
Candelario already has two barrels on the season and a 1.2 expected home run total. And all of his plate appearances have come at home. Comerica Park can be unideal for home runs, and according to Statcast, it has the fourth-lowest park factor in the league where home runs are concerned.
Case in point, if Candelario had logged all of his plate appearances at 19 of the league’s other 29 parks, he’d already have hit a home run. He’d already have two home runs at 13 of those 19 parks – including Dodger Stadium, Houston’s Minute Maid Park, and Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.
With the Tigers playing 14 of their next 22 on the road, including series in Los Angeles and Houston, the third baseman’s home run tally could rise in the coming weeks. And if he keeps collecting barrels at this rate, a 20-25 home run season isn’t too much of a stretch.
- Jeimer Candelario 2021 barrel rate: 9%
- Jeimer Candelario 2022 barrel rate: 11.1%
If Comerica Park were more homer-friendly, it would be significant for Candelario’s overall fantasy value. Still, there’s reason to believe there’s general positive regression coming as well, not just in terms of home runs.
Entering play Thursday, there was a rather large chasm between Candelario’s current wOBA (.249) and his xwOBA (.387). Those obviously aren’t fantasy stats, but once that and a .167 BABIP start to even out, Candelario should start producing like the player who hit .278 with a .356 on-base percentage in 832 combined plate appearances from 2020 to 2021.
Expect for this time, potentially with more power.
To say that Michael Kopech thrived in a relief role last season would be a grand understatement. Last season, the 25-year-old made 44 appearances for the White Sox, including four starts, totaling 69.1 innings.
The surface-level metrics (3.50 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 13.37 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9) are outstanding.
Thanks to his excellent stuff, dig a little deeper, and Kopech’s metrics are even better. The right-hander finished in the 93rd percentile league-wide in each of the following categories in 2021: K%, xBA, xwOBA, xERA, xOBP, fastball velocity, and fastball spin rate last season.
Overall, the former first-round pick finished in the 88th percentile league-wide in whiff rate.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs graded Kopech’s pitches with the following present and future grades before last season:
- Fastball: 70/70
- Slider: 60/70
- Curveball: 50/55
- Changeup: 40/45
Now granted, there’s some risk that the stuff isn’t quite as elite this season as a starter due to outings being longer than most relief appearances. Still, Kopech made appearances ranging from three to four innings as a reliever last season and was plenty effective.
And some might point to Kopech’s first start, which was decidedly good-but-not-great, as a reason for concern. The right-hander logged a 22% CSW rate while only generating seven swinging strikes on 69 pitches. However, the reality is that the right-hander, like several pitchers around the league, is still building up his innings.
Furthermore, he routinely hit 95 and 96 MPH later in his start. It was only four innings, but it’s a step in the right direction regarding Kopech potentially sustaining some or all of his relief success in a starting role this season.
Once he gets fully up to speed, the excellent stuff could follow. Because while there’s a risk, there’s also the possibility that it carries over into longer starts. There’s a reason Kopech was routinely ranked as an elite prospect, why he was the centerpiece of the Chris Sale (SP – BOS) deal, and why he was so effective last season in a multi-inning relief role. His stuff is that good, and his upside is that great.
These metrics don’t exactly translate to fantasy from a scoring standpoint, but you can see the upside.
Here are the starting pitchers who finished last season in the 85th percentile or better in whiff rate, fastball velocity, xERA, and xwOBA:
That’s it. And that’s the type of ceiling we’re talking about with Kopech here in fantasy. Chances are he’s probably going to get better, too, as the season progresses after his first start.
Try trading for him now. Yes, there’s a risk, but his fantasy upside is simply too hard to ignore at the moment. He currently has an ADP of 164.14 according to the NFBC, and it would surprise absolutely no one if he finished as a top 20 fantasy starter, or better depending on his innings when all is said and done.
There are few players with Kopech’s ceiling, especially around his ADP, so it’s a gamble worth taking if you’re giving up someone you drafted in that range.
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