Let’s take a look at the redraft and dynasty fantasy football impact of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ selection of Kenny Pickett.
Team Drafted: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick Selected: No. 20 overall
2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Outlook
Kenny Pickett isn’t leaving Pittsburgh anytime soon. The prolific college passer was selected by the Steelers 20th overall as the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft.
As the most pro-ready quarterback in the class, Pickett has the chance to earn the Day 1 starting job against veteran quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky offers more standalone value as a fantasy asset due to his rushing ability, but Pickett under center might be a slight upgrade from what Trubisky was slated to offer for the Steelers main skill players.
Pickett finished third in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket (94.3) and first in his class in adjusted completion percentage (79%) in 2021. His accuracy and deep ball bodes well for the likes of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
He does tend to go slowly through progressions and hold the ball too long, as evidenced by a 3.19-second average time to throw – the second-slowest in the draft class (Malik Willis, 3.33).
But it does mean that he is willing to hold onto the ball to let his receivers get downfield for more big plays.
– Andrew Erickson
Initial redraft ranking: QB29
2022 NFL Draft Profile
Beginning with a bird’s eye view of Kenny Pickett’s Pitt career until 2021, we saw flashes of above-average accuracy, but the rest of his numbers leave something to be desired. Even before his otherworldly 2021 season, he ranked 18th in adjusted completion rate among his peers, so the accuracy he displayed this past season isn’t a one-and-down outlier. Starting at his big-time throw rate and his turnover-worthy play rates help to contextualize some of his attributes and shortcomings visible on film. Pickett has the adequate arm strength to make all of the throws necessary to be an NFL quarterback, but you will be disappointed if you’re looking for wow moments consistently. That is evident by a big-time throw rate that, even during his best season, never eclipsed 5.2%. Even lacking exceptional arm talent, we can’t begin to project Pickett as a play-it-safe game manager. Pickett’s lapses in aggressiveness show through with a turnover play rate that never ranked inside the top 30 at his position. While it’s not a consistent worry, he does roll the dice at times, attempting to fit passes into windows that his average arm strength is ill-equipped to convert.
| Among FBS QBs with 200 or more dropbacks (Statistics per PFF): | |||
| Year | Adjusted completion % (Rank) | Big time throw rate | Turnover worth play rate |
| 2018 | 69.6% (73rd of 123) | 2.4% (116th) | 4.0% (73rd) |
| 2019 | 75.2% (18th of 116) | 3.5% (88th) | 3.4% (46th) |
| 2020 | 73.7% (32nd of 80) | 2.8% (75th) | 3.3% (36th) |
| 2021 | 78.8% (6th of 124) | 5.2% (52nd) | 2.8% (43rd) |
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2018 Adjusted completion rates at various passing depths (Short / Intermediate minimum 50 attempts, Deep minimum 20 attempts, per PFF) |
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| Field Depth | % of overall passing attempts | Adjusted Completion % (Rank) |
| Deep (20+) | 17.0% | 32.1% (128th of 156) |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 16.7% | 63.5% (33rd of 102) |
| Short (0-9) | 37.0% | 76.5% (96th of 144) |
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2019 Adjusted completion rates at various passing depths (Short / Intermediate minimum 50 attempts, Deep minimum 20 attempts, per PFF) |
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| Field Depth | % of overall passing attempts | Adjusted Completion % (Rank) |
| Deep (20+) | 12.1% | 49.1% (31st of 151) |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 20.0% | 58.5% (58th of 99) |
| Short (0-9) | 41.9% | 81.2% (53rd of 137) |
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2020 Adjusted completion rates at various passing depths (Short / Intermediate minimum 50 attempts, Deep minimum 20 attempts, per PFF) |
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| Field Depth | % of overall passing attempts | Adjusted Completion % (Rank) |
| Deep (20+) | 18.3% | 45.9% (36th of 108) |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 19.2% | 64.1% (31st of 60) |
| Short (0-9) | 38.4% | 82.0% (45th of 111) |
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2021 Adjusted completion rates at various passing depths (Short / Intermediate minimum 50 attempts, Deep minimum 20 attempts, per PFF) |
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| Field Depth | % of overall passing attempts | Adjusted Completion % (Rank) |
| Deep (20+) | 14.8% | 56.8% (7th of 140) |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 23.8% | 69.7% (12th of 102) |
| Short (0-9) | 38.9% | 85.6% (20th of 143) |
Despite Pickett’s passing accuracy jumping off the page in 2021, the question is can he replicate this type of prowess in the NFL? That’s the definite worry when before last season, he had never logged a top 30 finish in adjusted completion rate at any level of the field beyond the line of scrimmage.
Pickett is a rhythm passer. He worked in an offense that consistently asked him to read the field, so moving through his progressions won’t be a problem transitioning to an NFL system. He’s at his best when he’s dropping back 3-5 steps and pumping the ball out on short and intermediate routes across the middle of the field. That isn’t to say that he can’t heave it deep. His deep ball is fine. His ball placement is good enough on these throws, but there are moments when receivers are left waiting on deep balls instead of securing them in stride due to his arm strength.
His arm strength limitations and accuracy fall off when asked to push the ball outside the hashes consistently or on the run. When he’s in scramble mode (sometimes needlessly), he shows some thread the needle moments (vs. Clemson), but he often sails the pass or bounces at the receiver’s feet. He has the requisite velocity on his throws to make many of these passes outside, but he lacks the extra oomph to excel at them. The numbers below bear out the harsh truth visible in his game tape.
| 2019-2021 Passing 10-19 yards Middle of the field vs. Outside (Statistics per PFF): | ||
| Field area | Completion rate | Passer Rating |
| Middle | 60.5% | 107.8 |
| Outside | 49.2% | 78.8 |
If you’re comping Kenny Pickett at all to Joe Burrow just know it’s lazy…
And wrong.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 5, 2022
Pickett is not Joe Burrow (QB – CIN). Some analysts mention his name in the same breath as Burrow due to Pickett’s late-career production. The comparison is a quick box score comparison at best. Pickett’s pocket presence is not on par with Burrow’s now or during his final season at LSU. There are numerous instances where Pickett will bail a clean pocket at the first sniff of pressure. He also tends to drift backward or roll out instead of stepping up to survey the field. Both of these tendencies lead to his accuracy waning. He throws off his back foot or on the run, and neither outcome is desirable. If he lands on a team with a subpar offensive line, he could be “seeing ghosts” by mid-season.
I’ll leave the hand-size battle for others to fight. It’s worth noting that Pickett had 38 fumbles (26 lost) across four seasons. Whether this is related to his stubby digits or an issue with technique is fair to debate.
Pickett possesses several traits that can transition to an NFL team well. With his 4.73 speed, he is mobile in the pocket, but he shouldn’t be considered a “rushing quarterback.” His overall makeup resembles a quarterback with which a team can win. It’s questionable whether he has the raw intangibles ever to become a quarterback that a team wins because of. If you’re looking for a quarterback that can be a sum of the parts you place around him, Pickett “could” be your guy.
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