Identifying fantasy football sleepers and under-the-radar players is one of the most fun parts of our fake game, but the process has changed over the last few years with so much information now at our disposal.
With a fresh new crop of rookies comes the opportunity to find draft-day bargains. We have to dig deep for rookie sleepers in dynasty drafts and redraft/early best-ball leagues. That’s why I’ve embarked on a search for what I like to call “true sleepers” – small school and late third round or Day 3 draft picks who could surprise early in the NFL.
After researching and writing up my 2022 rookie dynasty rankings, I’ve identified a handful of wide receivers who could generate fantasy value like Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI), and Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF) did in 2021.
Remember that Day 3 wide receivers seldom do what ASB did his rookie season, as I addressed in my approach to the value of rookies in fantasy football pre-draft. So I will try to include some wide receivers with projected late 2nd round or 3rd round draft capital.
Finding the Next Sleeper
Like my approach with running backs, I wanted to dive back into the prospect profiles of the Day 3 rookie wide receivers who popped in recent years. What, if anything, stood out?
Darnell Mooney not only posted a 33% career dominator rating at Tulane, but he also broke out during his freshman year at age 19. Gabriel Davis’ 24% career dominator rating was less impressive, but he also posted an early breakout at the same age.
Breakout Ages for the 2022 Draft Class
| Rank | Player | Breakout Age | Dominator Rating During Breakout Season |
| 1 | George Pickens | 18 | 27% |
| 2 | David Bell | 18 | 26% |
| 3 | Justyn Ross | 18 | 24% |
| 4 | Wan’dale Robinson | 19 | 28% |
| 5 | Skyy Moore | 19 | 20% |
| 6 | Jalen Tolbert | 19 | 35% |
| 7 | Romeo Doubs | 19 | 24% |
| 8 | Khalil Shakir | 19 | 22% |
| 9 | Makai Polk | 19 | 20% |
| 10 | Chris Olave | 19 | 24% |
| 11 | Drake London | 19 | 22% |
| 12 | Jameson Williams | 20 | 31% |
| 13 | Christian Watson | 20 | 23% |
| 14 | Dai’Jean Dixon | 20 | 40% |
| 15 | Erik Ezukanma | 20 | 31% |
| 16 | Garrett Wilson | 20 | 31% |
| 17 | Treylon Burks | 20 | 35% |
| 18 | Jahan Dotson | 20 | 43% |
| 19 | John Metchie III | 21 | 20% |
| 20 | Calvin Austin III | 21 | 33% |
| 21 | Jalen Nailor | 21 | 34% |
| 22 | Devon Williams | 21 | 20% |
Mooney and Davis also showed that we want to chase big-play upside with late-round picks. We can find that upside in players who create chunk gains. For example, Mooney averaged over 20 yards per reception in a collegiate season. Davis finished fifth in deep-ball receptions in his final year at UCF.
And although St. Brown doesn’t fit the big-play threat archetype, he still owned a top-tier breakout age at age 19 to go along with overall middling production and athletics.
However, guys that flashed and accrued dynasty value as the season progressed, like Josh Palmer (WR – LAC) and Ihmir Smith-Marsette (WR – TEN), both entered the NFL with vertical-threat prowess on their resumes.
Unearthing players with high-end college production, a solid breakout age, or a vertical element to their game is a great way to scoop up sleeper value late in rookie dynasty drafts.
Justyn Ross (WR – Clemson)
And no player epitomizes that better than Justyn Ross, who looked the part of college football’s next superstar after a freshman breakout. At 18 years old, Ross led the Clemson Tigers in receiving yards despite playing alongside veteran teammates Tee Higgins (WR – CIN), Amari Rodgers (WR – GB), and Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV). In his first season, Ross was PFF’s second-highest graded WR (91.2) and ranked inside the top-10 in yards after catch (9.6).
The 6-foot-4 and 205-pound wideout followed up with an impressive sophomore campaign, leading the team in receptions (66) as Trevor Lawrence’s (QB – Jax) most heavily targeted receiver.
Ross was well on his way to being a locked-and-loaded Round 1 selection for the 2021 NFL Draft, but a rare condition affecting his neck and spine forced him to miss the entire 2020 season. He came back in 2021 to show that he was fully healthy, but an anemic Clemson offense that ranked 87th in PFF’s grading torpedoed his numbers. Only 64% of his targets were deemed catchable, which ranked in the 28th percentile.
If Ross can recapture his playmaking ability from 2018, he will be a steal for a team on Day 2. He’s an underrated route runner at his size but not a contested-catch fiend. Ross reminds me of Corey Davis (WR – NYJ) because he is not particularly explosive.
Khalil Shakir (WR – Boise State)
Khalil Shakir’s electric Boise State career hit its peak during the 2020 season when he cultivated a whopping 46% dominator score – the second-highest single-season rating among the 2022 Draft Class. He finished that year as PFF’s ninth-graded WR (88.8), averaging over 100 receiving yards and 7.4 catches per game.
Single Season Dominator Rating
| Rank | Player | Best Season Dominator Rating | PFF Grade | Best Season | Final Season Dominator Rating |
| 1 | Dai’Jean Dixon | 49% | 90.8 | 2019 | 38% |
| 2 | Khalil Shakir | 46% | 88.8 | 2020 | 35% |
| 3 | Treylon Burks | 45% | 90.8 | 2021 | 45% |
| 4 | David Bell | 44% | 77.4 | 2020 | 22% |
| 5 | Jahan Dotson | 43% | 79.7 | 2020 | 41% |
| 6 | Jalen Tolbert | 42% | 85.7 | 2021 | 42% |
| 7 | Skyy Moore | 41% | 91.6 | 2021 | 41% |
| 8 | Wan’Dale Robinson | 37% | 90.9 | 2021 | 37% |
| 9 | Christian Watson | 35% | 89.5 | 2021 | 35% |
| 10 | Romeo Doubs | 34% | 78.2 | 2020 | 27% |
Shakir’s junior season was a solid follow-up to his 2019 breakout sophomore campaign when he hung a 22% dominator rating at age 19.
The Boise State slot wide receiver would end his college career on a high note as PFF’s third-highest-graded wide receiver (92.9) among his draft class.
As a strong candidate to etch out a role working inside for an NFL offense, Shakir could emerge as a Russell Gage (WR – TB)-Esque receiver that works well in fantasy PPR scoring. The NFL mock draft community is vastly sleeping on him as WR17 (115th overall) per Grindingthemocks.com‘s aggregated expected draft capital.
Jalen Tolbert (WR – S.ALA)
South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks.
The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating – top-three in the class – including a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42%, and 42% starting his sophomore year. He torched defenses downfield as the nation’s leader in targets (99), catches (38), and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards.
Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age – his player profile stacks up with some top wideouts from his class.
And although Tolbert doesn’t possess elite speed – 57th percentile 40-yard dash time – he still understands how to get open deep. He’s similar to Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) in that fashion.
Per Grindingthemocks.com, Tolbert projects as an early Round 3 pick. And he checks off a lot of the boxes fantasy managers should gravitate towards as a later-round prospect.
I wasn’t expecting much from Alec Pierce at the NFL Combine, so I was pleasantly surprised when he impressed me during the testing drills. A 4.41 40-yard dash and the No. 1 vertical jump (40.5, 93rd percentile) in the class imply that Pierce has the requisite athleticism to be a factor at the NFL level.
Pierce needs to be on your fantasy radar with projected Day 2 draft capital (WR13 overall) per Grindingthemocks.com. Fantasy drafters should also gravitate towards his 19-year breakout age and the fact that he was a big-play threat for the Bearcats, evidenced by his 17.1 aDOT – the highest aDOT of any player in his class with at least 80 targets. Pierce averaged just over 100 air yards per game in his final season at Cincinnati.
One could also make the case that Pierce left a lot of production on the table after seeing the second-worst catchable target rate (75%) among 45 qualifying wide receivers per Sports Info Solutions. It makes you also question how NFL-ready Desmond Ridder (WR – FA) truly is.
Dai’Jean Dixon (WR – Nicholls State)
Despite Treylon Burks’ college triumphs, one small-school receiver finished with a higher college dominator rating: Dai’Jean Dixon. The Nicholls State possession wide receiver spent the last four seasons bullying Southland Conference defenses for a 39% dominator rating (1st) and 93.0 PFF receiving grade (2nd).
College Career Dominator Rating
| Rank | Player | Class | School | Career Dominator Rating | PFF Receiving Grade |
| 1 | Dai’Jean Dixon | Senior | Nicholls | 39% | 93.0 |
| 2 | Treylon Burks | Junior | Arkansas | 32% | 91.3 |
| 3 | Jalen Tolbert | Senior | South Alabama | 31% | 85.9 |
| 4 | Wan’Dale Robinson | Junior | Kentucky | 28% | 93.4 |
| 5 | Skyy Moore | Junior | Western Michigan | 28% | 91.5 |
| 6 | David Bell | Junior | Purdue | 28% | 89.6 |
| 7 | Jahan Dotson | Senior | Penn State | 26% | 83.1 |
| 8 | Khalil Shakir | Senior | Boise State | 25% | 92.9 |
| 9 | Romeo Doubs | Senior | Nevada | 24% | 83.7 |
| 10 | Justyn Ross | Senior | Clemson | 22% | 89.6 |
Dixon finished as a top-six graded wide receiver in the nation twice over the last three years. He achieved a whopping 49% dominator rating in 2019. But his eye-popping numbers come with a grain of salt because of the lackluster competition he faced. However, the 6-foot-2, 203-pound wide receiver delivered when tasked to go out and ball. In the most recent 2022 NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, his playmaking ability was on full display. Dixon caught six of seven passes for 131 receiving yards and a touchdown in the game.
Consider Dixon my favorite deep sleeper of the 2022 receiver draft class.
.@Aqeel_Glass4 throws a ? to Dai’Jean Dixon for the American Team TD!@AamufbR @GeauxColonels
?: @NFLPABowl on NFL Network pic.twitter.com/03lE9wPVIK
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 29, 2022
Makai Polk (WR – MISS STATE)
Makai Polk doesn’t own an impressive college production profile with just an 18% career dominator rating, but his situation needs context. His football career started at Cal, where he enjoyed a breakout season as a 19-year-old sophomore. Polk then transferred to Mississippi State and took full advantage of the Mike Leach air raid offense, leading the SEC with 105 catches – 8.4 receptions per game.
He also posted the second-highest catch rate on targets of 20-plus air yards (69%) and passer rating (151.4) on those deep targets.
Considering the former Bulldog will be just 20 years old on draft day, Polk looks to be just scratching the surface of his football potential. There’s a lot of room for him to grow, and he’s virtually free in dynasty rookie drafts.
Full disclosure – I knew nothing about Samori Toure until Pro Football Network’s Aaron Wilson reported the Nebraska wideout was drawing “heavy interest” from the Chiefs, Bengals, Packers, Colts, and 49ers.
Toure is climbing draft boards after impressing NFL scouts at his pro day. The 6-foot-1 and 195-pound wide receiver ran a 4.44 during his 40-yard dash while also testing well in the short-area quickness drills.
The former Grizzlie’s three-cone time of 6.77 seconds ranked in the 79th percentile, and his 4.22 short shuttle ranked in the 50th percentile. However, the shuttle time ranked fourth-best in the class behind those that tested at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine behind Calvin Austin, Kevin Austin, and Khalil Shakir.
But there’s reason to believe the NFL and fantasy gamers should have been harping on Toure even before his pro day. In his final season, the guy was a mega-producer playing in the FCS at Montana, posting over 1,400 receiving yards and 12 scores. Toure posted six 100-yard receiving games, including a school-record 303 yards on 12 catches against Southeast Louisiana.
After 2019, he transferred to Nebraska to prove he could play against stiffer competition and did precisely that. He led the Cornhuskers in all receiving categories during his age-23 senior season. Toure also finished with the fourth-highest yards per reception mark (19.5). His 11.8 yards per target trailed only Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks in this class.
Toure was also a fiend with the ball in his hands, averaging 7.6 yards after the catch – the tenth highest mark in his class.
Danny Gray got his start at the junior college level playing at Blinn College before spending the last two years at SMU. In 2019, Gray led the team with 54 receptions for 877 yards and eight touchdowns. He totaled 958 all-purpose yards. As a true freshman, Gray registered 15 catches for 409 yards and six touchdowns. The 6-foot and 186-lb wide receiver finished his juco career averaging 18.6 yards per reception.
His big-play ability earned him a spot on SMU’s football team where he showed out big time in 2021. He finished fifth in the class in yards after the catch per reception (8.5).
Gray also boasted a 19% target share and 24% air yards share.
With elite speed — 4.33 40-yard dash — separation skills and experience playing out wide, Gray fits the archetype as a Day 3 player that could easily outperform his draft capital. Vertical prowess is a common trait among late-round WRs that make noise as rookies.
He looks a lot like Nelson Agholor on tape — drops also included. His 12.5% drop rate is the 7th-worst mark in the class among WRs with at least 50 targets last season.
Honorable Mentions
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