Identifying fantasy football sleepers and under-the-radar players is one of the most fun parts of our fake game, but the process has changed over the last few years with so much information now at our disposal.
With a fresh new crop of rookies comes the opportunity to find draft-day bargains. When it comes to dynasty drafts and rookie sleepers for redraft/early best-ball leagues, we have to dig pretty deep. That’s why I’ve embarked on a search for what I like to call “true sleepers” – small school and late third round or Day 3 draft picks who could surprise early in the NFL.
After researching and writing up my 2022 rookie dynasty rankings, I’ve identified a handful of running backs who could be this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson or – fingers crossed – Elijah Mitchell.
Finding the next sleeper
One of the biggest indicators that led me to feature both Mitchell and Stevenson as draft day sleepers in my time at PFF prior to the 2021 NFL Draft was a high average yards per snap or scrimmage play. Simply put: When the guy is on the field, he is accumulating yards at a high rate.
Mitchell and Stevenson headlined the top of last year’s class in that category – and the majority of those featured all showed something as rookies to boost their value entering Year 2. Even super late round and undrafted running backs like Jaret Patterson and Chris Evans flashed moments in very limited roles.
Rachaad White (RB - Arizona State)
So that's why my first rookie sleeper is Rachaad White - who ranks first in this class in yards per snap (3.33).
The premier pass-catching specialist from Arizona State finished first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24), and second in receptions (43). Per Sports Info Solutions, White finished first in total points added per rushing attempt.
His 16% target share is bonkers for a running back at the college level and should boost his draft capital.
The same sentiment can be made for White's 31% dominator rating - that mark would have ranked third-best over the last two seasons.
His PFF receiving grade also ranks first among the class. White's career receiving grade was superior to anybody from last year's class. It's a positive sign considering that Kenneth Gainwell, Javonte Williams, and Rhamondre Stevenson rounded out the top three in that metric from last year's class.
White first soared up my dynasty rookie rankings after a strong showing at Senior Bowl week - PFF's highest-graded rusher (74.9) - and at the NFL Combine. The Sun Devil flaunted his explosiveness with a 38-inch vertical jump (86th percentile) and a 125-inch broad jump (87th percentile).
Watch any clip of White from college, and you will immediately be overwhelmed by shades of Arian Foster and Le'Veon Bell. White's got great vision at the line of scrimmage to go along with extremely light feet.
White checks off essentially every box you could ask for in a prospect, except for two things: age and expected draft capital. He's already 23 years old, and his projected draft capital per Grindingthemocks.com is 105th as the RB7 off the board.
Fantasy football gamers seem to be much higher on White's prospects than the real NFL but fear not. As I pointed out in my pre-draft 2022 version of "How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football", fourth round draft capital is not a kiss of death for a running back.
Dameon Pierce (RB - Florida)
Dameon Pierce took the title as PFF's highest-graded running back in the FBS (92.0) despite seeing just 100 carries. The senior's 39% missed tackle rate ranked second among the 2022 draft class. And per Sports Info Solutions, Pierce finished with the highest percentage of carries with a positive Expected Points Added.
However, the fact Pierce never fully took over Florida's backfield does raise red flags. His 12% career dominator rating is eerily similar to Trey Sermon (12%) from last season, and Sermon struggled to separate himself from the pack in his rookie campaign.
Even during his breakout senior season, the 5-foot-10 and 218-pound running back earned just a 22% dominator rating while sharing the backfield alongside fellow draft-eligible running back Malik Davis.
However, I am willing to offer some benefit of the doubt after Pierce never topped 106 carries in college. There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season.
Pierce's lackluster dominator rating doesn't capture his coach's potential ineptitude. The fact Pierce competed with NFL talents like Jordan Scarlett and La'Mical Perine very early in his college career paints a better picture of how his impact will be felt in years to come.
His violent running style and body type bears striking resemblance to Patriots running back Damien Harris.
Pierce's current expected draft position per Grindingthemocks.com is RB11 at 126th overall.
Tyler Allgeier (RB - BYU)
Tyler Allgeier has been a monster over the past two seasons, ranking first in rushing yards after contact (1,847), second in rushing touchdowns (36), and third in PFF rushing grade (94.8) among FBS players with at least 150 carries.
The high-end production helped the BYU running back post a 28% dominator rating since the start of 2020, capped off by an astounding 36% rating in his final season with the Cougars. That mark is the best "true" single-season dominator rating in the class.
Allgeier credits a lot of his backfield success to his experience playing linebacker, a trait that definitely aided Javonte Williams in his progression as an NFL running back.
Allgeier also displayed an ability to overcome adversity in 2021 after the team lost so many key components - from future New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson to the entire starting offensive line. That hardly slowed down the former walk-on, though, as he finished sixth in his class in yards after contact per attempt (4.16) and first in touchdowns (23).
Per Sports Info Solutions, Allgeier also finished first in the class in total percentage of carries hit at or behind the line of scrimmage that resulted in positive EPA (32%) - one percentage point above Dameon Pierce. He was second in rushing points added per game behind only Kenneth Walker to go along with career highs in receptions (32) and target share (eight percent).
Although my concerns with Allgeier were realized by his lack of explosiveness in the testing drills. 4.60 40-yard dash (42nd percentile) and sub-65th percentile jumps don't suggest he will be blowing past NFL defenders. He's going to have to win by embracing contact, which could shorten his shelf life as a runner.
My NFL comp for Allgeier is James Conner, who fantasy players know has dealt with a flurry of injuries due to his physical style of play.
Allgeier's current expected draft position per Grindingthemocks.com is RB8 at 118th overall.
Pierre Strong Jr. (RB - South Dakota State)
For any small-school running back to make a living in the NFL, they need to dominate their competition in college. That's what gives South Dakota State's Pierre Strong Jr. a chance to make a splash at the next level. Strong finished with a top-10 career and single-season dominator rating while grading out as PFF's highest rusher (95.6). His 3.3 yards per play also ranks second among running backs in his class, which is a great indicator of future success, as I made evident throughout this article.
The 5-foot-11 and 207-pound back also blazed a 4.37 40-yard dash (95th percentile), tying him with Rutgers' Isiah Pacheco for the fastest running back time.
Additionally, Strong jumped 36 inches in the vertical (71st percentile) and 124 in the broad jump (84th percentile).
Strong's "strong" outing will almost certainly boost his draft stock for both the real-life NFL and fantasy rookie drafts. High-end college RB producers that display above-average athleticism tend to hit at the next level.
The South Dakota State running back gives off strong Darren McFadden vibes (in a good way).
Abram Smith (RB - Baylor)
Abram Smith's 25% dominator rating and 3.3 yards per play this past season is outstanding considering he spent the previous year playing linebacker for the Baylor Bears. He made the switch back to running back for his senior season and delivered massively with 1,598 rushing yards (fifth) - 1,011 of which came after contact.
It's almost like the guy used to play defense. Oh, wait.
With an impressive outing at the Senior Bowl - he was named top running back on the National team - Smith needs to be on your rookie radar. He has the requisite size at 6-feet and 213 pounds to be a three-down back at the next level if he can improve his game as a receiver.
And don't overlook that Smith can deliver splash plays when he needs to. His boom rate - percentage of plays that result in an EPA greater than 1, i.e., a big play for the offense as provided by Sports Info Solutions - trailed only Kenneth Walker III in the 2022 running back draft class (16%).
Although it's anybody's guess where Smith is selected in the NFL Draft with his expected draft position N/A on Grindingthemocks.com, don't be overly bullish on him pre-draft.
Kevin Harris (RB - South Carolina)
Nobody posted a higher single-season dominator rating than Kevin Harris did in 2020 (45%). However, he took a back seat to ZaQuandre White as a junior with a meager 14% dominator rating.
But even so, the fact that Harris owns such an impressive single-season performance warrants immediate attention in rookie drafts. Especially considering his explosive testing numbers were off-the-charts excellent at the combine. 89th percentile vertical jump and 91st percentile broad jump at 221 pounds is utterly astounding.
However, like Smith, Harris also does not currently have any expected draft capital.
Hassan Haskins (RB - Michigan)
Michigan's Hassan Haskins broke out in a big way as "the guy" for the Wolverines in 2021. Haskins earned a 23% dominator rating, raising his career dominator rating to 20%.
With an identical PFF rushing grade to Breece Hall (91.6) over the last three seasons, Haskins looked primed to exceed expectations in the NFL. He offers a lot of size at 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds and will leap up draft boards if he tests well at his pro day.
The Michigan product also led his entire class in rushing attempts inside the five yard line (29), which gives him a real shot at carving out a goal-line role in the pros.
If he can sneak into Round 4 - current EDP at 180th overall - consider me in on Haskins.
Jerrion Ealy (RB - Ole Miss)
Jerrion Ealy owns PFF's fifth-highest career rushing grade (92.1) among the incoming rookies but falls flat with total production based on his 16% dominator rating. He split time with Snoop Conner all three years at Mississippi, and that seems like his most realistic role at the next level: an undersized but efficient change-of-pace back at 5-foot-8 and 189 pounds.
He's one of just two draft-eligible running backs that finished top-five in career rushing grade and PFF receiving grade (Tyler Allgeier). But be warned that Ealy created little on his own after generating the lowest rate of positive plays after taking contact behind the line of scrimmage.
Ealy should at least get drafted based on his 94th percentile broad jump.
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