We see the same story take place year after year, and it unfolds one of two ways.
- A player comes up, underperforms, and we punish him for not having immediate success by drafting him late the following year based on a small sample.
- A player does well in his first taste of the big leagues but struggles the second time through. His ADP, too, goes down because he couldn’t replicate the success.
Welcome to the world of post-hype sleepers.
Now, sometimes there are reasons the ADPs have slipped. It could be underlying metrics that explain the slump, such as an inflated BABIP or unsustainable HR/FB ratio for a player.
But when you’re looking for values in your drafts, post-hype players are the perfect players to target because they still have the high upside, but they cost a fraction of what they could – or should.
Here are five post-hype players to consider drafting in your league.
Average Draft Position (ADP) referenced using FantasyPros Consensus ADP
Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft with our Mock Draft Simulator 
Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA) ADP 148
There’s the saying that it’s better to have love and lost than to have never have loved at all. For fantasy, it’s different. It seems like it’s better to not compete against big leaguers than to come up and not immediately succeed.
That’s the story for Kelenic, who struggled against major leaguers last year after tearing up Triple-A.
For comparison, Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC), who has never recorded a Major League appearance, is going 106 in drafts. If Kelenic didn’t reach the bigs, is that where he’d be going, too?
Kelenic’s season-long line was .181/.265/.350 with 14 home runs and six steals.
Not good.
But Kelenic did make a change in the final months that yielded mildly better results. What’s more, he ran into some BABIP luck (.216).
The projection models don’t love him, as most have him around .230 with 22ish home runs, but Kelenic’s tools haven’t changed. Him posting a .260/.350/.520 line with 30 home runs wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Zach Plesac (SP – CLE) ADP 274
Plesac was an easy bust call last year, given that he was going so high in drafts.
But after a bad year, which saw his ERA nearly double, his K% dip by 11 percent, and his walk rate nearly double, have we swung the pendulum too far in the other direction?
His minor league track record is solid, and it’s really 2020 and 2021 that are the outliers in opposite ways.
He’s not a 27.7 K% guy, but he’s also not a 16.7 K% guy. The 2.28 ERA wasn’t going to stick, but maybe a 4.20 can.
The profile with Plesac is the same as it was in 2020 in which the shortened season elevated the results more.
He attacks the zone, limits the walks, and allows hard contact. Will he be an SP2 or SP3? No, but he can be a high-volume SP4 in a great division and with a great organization.
I’m banking on Plesac to split the difference between 2020 and 2021.
Alec Bohm (3B – PHI) ADP 319
If you asked people last year at this time if they’d prefer Bohm or Jonathan India (2B – CIN) in dynasty, Bohm would win in a landslide.
Now? Well, it’s a laughable question.
Or so it seems.
While Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT) struggled in his sophomore campaign, his ADP hasn’t been dinged too much. But Bohm? Well, Bohm has been all but left for dead with an ADP outside of the top 300.
There are valid reasons for that, too.
His success at the big-league level came in a small sample in a weird 2020 season. Over his first full season in 2021, he wasn’t only terrible in the field, but he didn’t meet a groundball that he didn’t like. Bohm ended up getting sent down, and he’s been an afterthought for drafters this year.
Now if we’ve learned anything, we know that groundball-heavy hitters can make a change that gets them to the next level. Just ask Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
Not that Bohm will be Guerrero (he won’t) and not that player growth is linear (it’s not), but the overcorrect on Bohm is a little much for a former top prospect.
Now, he will have to hit out of the gate for the Phillies as they are making a push for the World Series with their revamped offense.
If Bohm isn’t able to show some positive signs by the time top prospect Bryson Stott (SS – PHI) gets called up, then we should start to panic about him.
Nick Senzel (OF – CIN) ADP 355
Nick Senzel and health.
So far, the injuries have derailed the promising career of one of the top prospects in baseball.
In three seasons, the 27-year-old has just 616 plate appearances in the big leagues due to injuries that keep popping up. Senzel’s numbers over that time, which is a sample of 163 games mind you, are .246/.308/.396 with 15 home runs, 18 steals, 81 runs, and 58 RBIs.
It’s not exactly great, but the 18 steals and non-zero power are encouraging.
The pedigree for Senzel is outstanding, and it’s hard for any player to put together consistent production with injuries limiting them.
But this needs to be the year for Senzel to put the injuries behind him. The Reds have cleaned house and Senzel is facing no competition for playing time. But if Senzel doesn’t put it together this year, the team could remove Senzel from their future plans.
The projections have Senzel around 110 games this year, which is fair, but if by some miracle he can stay healthy, a 25/20 season with a .270 average isn’t out of the question.
I’m making sure I have a few shares just in case this is the year of Senzel.
MacKenzie Gore (SP – SD) ADP 351
Pitching prospects are the worst. It’s so hard to invest in them with the number of injuries we see to young arms.
For Gore, he was going to be a lock. A safe pitching prospect. One with a high floor and high ceiling when it comes to fantasy.
But then, it went away. He lost velocity. He didn’t have command of his pitches. And he tumbled down prospect lists to become an afterthought.
But this Spring, Gore has shown flashes of why we shouldn’t give up on him quite yet. The buying window on him is open now, but it might not be for long.
Gore, still just 23, has hit 99 in batting practice, and in two starts as of this post being submitted, he’s struck out seven hitters over five innings while allowing no walks and one hit.
We aren’t quite at John Wick “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back” levels with Gore, but another promising outing in the coming days will make his draft price soar.
Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.
Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
