As the focus starts to point towards 2022, it’s time to look at those players who were underwhelming in the touchdown column in 2021. Of these, it’s always of interest to fantasy players to find those who were particularly unlucky when it came to touchdowns. Therefore, if there is a way to find those players who had the right amount of opportunity but didn’t get the touchdowns, then there is a way to look at players who should if all things remain equal, regress to the mean and bounce back in 2022.
The word regression confuses people. From a mathematical and practical standpoint, it simply means reverting to the mean. Therefore, you will have players who overperformed with touchdowns in 2021 (more on this next week) and those who underperformed. As a result, I have built an expected touchdowns model that factors in attempts/catches, red zone usage, and yardage modeled against a subset of players. Then, it is all about understanding why. Therefore, this exercise is both metric-based and subjective based on offensive usage. For example, secondary backs will tend to point to having positive touchdown regression. However, because they don’t get as many of the value touches as the lead back, this is not the case. As not all touches are equal.
As the focus starts to point towards 2022, it’s time to look at those players who were underwhelming in the touchdown column in 2021. Of these, it’s always of interest to fantasy players to find those who were particularly unlucky when it came to touchdowns. Therefore, if there is a way to find those players who had the right amount of opportunity but didn’t get the touchdowns, then there is a way to look at players who should if all things remain equal, regress to the mean and bounce back in 2022.
The word regression confuses people. From a mathematical and practical standpoint, it simply means reverting to the mean. Therefore, you will have players who overperformed with touchdowns in 2021 (more on this next week) and those who underperformed. As a result, I have built an expected touchdowns model that factors in attempts/catches, red zone usage, and yardage modeled against a subset of players. Then, it is all about understanding why. Therefore, this exercise is both metric-based and subjective based on offensive usage. For example, secondary backs will tend to point to having positive touchdown regression. However, because they don’t get as many of the value touches as the lead back, this is not the case. As not all touches are equal.
There are six standout positive regression candidates who, if they receive a similar workload, should have a more attractive touchdown total in 2022.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
Actual Touchdowns: 6
Expected Touchdowns: 10.9
Difference: -4.9 touchdowns
2022 was not one of Dalvin Cook’s best seasons. Once again, he had to deal with injury. However, he also was dealing with an offensive line that was in flux. Taking Wyatt Davis (OL – MIN) to play guard and then not really using him was not in the plan. They relied on veterans playing different positions all over the line. That left Cook to not be that efficient. In 2019, Cook had 250 carries and 13 touchdowns. In 2021, he had 249 carries and six touchdowns. A return to health mixed with a better offense will help Cook positively regress. 26 carries inside the 10-yard line was a three-year low for Cook. With a similar workload, he should be closer to 11 touchdowns in 2022.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Actual Touchdowns: 0
Expected Touchdowns: 5.77
Difference: – 5.77 touchdowns
Miles Sanders didn’t manage to find the endzone at all in 2021. He was vultured by Boston Scott (RB – PHI) and Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) after doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Still, he managed 912 yards of total offense on 163 touches in 12 games, in a season that was stop-and-start due to injury. There is absolutely no chance that if Sanders receives that workload again in 2022 he returns zero touchdowns. That’s not to say he is going to be a touchdown hog. However, the model and the mean have him closer to six touchdowns. If projecting his workload over 17 games mixed in with his positive touchdown regression, Sanders will be a low-end RB2 in 2022. Considering Miles Sanders is currently going off at an ADP of 6.06 according to Fantasy Football Calculator, he could be a sleeper in drafts this offseason.
Chase Claypool (WR – PIT)
Actual Touchdowns: 2
Expected Touchdowns: 4.82
Difference: – 2.82 touchdowns
Claypool didn’t manage the best year in 2021. Even though he wasn’t his best, Ben Roethlisberger’s arm mixed in with poor situational football at times meant Claypool was almost three touchdowns below where he was expected. With 163 vacated targets up for grabs in Pittsburgh due mostly to the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC) and Eric Ebron (TE – FA), Claypool can expect to see more targets. He can also expect an upgrade in quarterback play, with that likely to come in the form of Mitchell Trubisky (QB – PIT).
With Claypool currently coming off the board at WR34 in the 7th round, he is another player who represents incredible value, considering the positive touchdown regression and the extra targets likely to come his way. Adding this to the upgrade at quarterback, it seems Claypool is ready to outperform his current ADP.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
Actual Touchdowns: 6
Expected Touchdowns: 8.66
Difference: – 2.66 touchdowns
As much as Allen is consistently getting six touchdowns per season (hitting that mark four times in the past five seasons, with the exception being eight TDs in 2020), my model still believes he underperformed in the touchdown column in 2021. The first reason for this is that Mike Williams (WR – LAC) overperformed by almost an identical amount (2.79 over expected touchdowns in 2021). The model had the right amount of touchdowns for the main Chargers’ weapons, but Williams was on a hot streak and was overly efficient. This was actually against his career arc to date, so it shows that there is negative regression for Williams coming. And, with that in mind, it is likely to swing back to Keenan Allen.
The other reason for Allen’s touchdown total in 2021 was a below career average yards per target and yards per reception. Some of that was due to where he was being targeted on the field and where Herbert and the coaching staff wanted him. However, some of this was also underutilization of Allen’s skill set. It is likely we will see a slight shift in Allen’s usage in 2022, which would help his expected touchdown total be closer to eight touchdowns in 2022.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
Actual Touchdowns: 1
Expected Touchdowns: 5.55
Difference: – 4.55 touchdowns
There are not many offenses in the NFL that have vacated as many air yards this offseason as the Atlanta Falcons. Not to mention, due to Calvin Ridley’s (WR – ATL) suspension and the loss of Russell Gage (WR – TB) in Free Agency to their divisional rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Falcons also have 225 vacated targets. And whilst Auden Tate (WR – ATL) has signed, there are not going to be too many weapons QB1 Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) is going to get to choose from.
Enter Kyle Pitts season 2.0. Yes, folks, the Pitts breakout truthers will be out in force this season. It is an anomaly how Pitts managed 110 targets, 14 red zone targets, and only one touchdown. One reason for this is that he only caught four of his fourteen targets within the 20-yard line. That is something that will improve next season.
The lack of options in 2022 will resort to Pitts improving on his 110 targets from 2021. With Pitts positively regressing to the mean, and with some additional targets, expect Pitts to be closer to seven touchdowns in 2022, despite the downgrade at quarterback.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Actual Touchdowns: 0
Expected Touchdowns: 4.89
Difference: – 4.89 touchdowns
Cole Kmet is another player who underperformed in the touchdown column. So much so, that he didn’t even find the endzone in 2021. Despite receiving 93 targets, Kmet was unable to spike the ball and contribute points for the Bears.
Kmet was dealing with a rookie quarterback, which will have an impact on expected touchdown numbers in most instances. Kmet was also playing in an offense that was ranked 26th in Offensive DVOA and was 29th in passing touchdowns in the NFL.
The good news for Kmet is he has a brand new offensive coordinator in 2022. Also, Justin Fields (QB – CHI) will be more acclimatized to the NFL in his second season. Lastly, the Bears have 215 vacated targets from last season, and not too many high-value draft picks to pick up outstanding wide receiver talent. This, alongside a positive regression to the mean, should see Kmet return his best season, in terms of touchdowns scored, in his NFL career to date in 2022.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.
