Welcome to the first edition of the positive/negative regression candidates column for the 2022 season! Each week, I’ll be digging into the underlying metrics to identify players who look primed to either cool off or heat up. This column aims to help you outsmart your league opponents and hopefully win your fantasy baseball league.

As we are only a few days into the 2022 season, we don’t have enough data from this year for any analysis to be relevant. I’ll focus on positive/negative regression candidates for the season based on 2021 data this week and next. Today I’ll touch on hitters, and next week, pitchers.

The statistics I use in these articles will vary. This week, I focused on the variances between the Statcast “expected stats” and the players’ actual stats. Below are the players with the highest positive and negative variances between the two for the entire season (minimum 500 plate appearances). Let’s start on a positive note:

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Carlos Santana (1B – KC) had the most significant variances of “expected to actual” stats in 2021, but I decided not to focus on him here since his ownership % is so low. However, he may be worth monitoring if you play in a deep league. Instead, we’ll dig in on two ex-players from the World Champion Braves who are both widely rostered: Freddie Freeman (1B – LAD) and Jorge Soler (OF, DH – MIA).

Freddie Freeman

 
It’s hard to believe that Freeman may have underperformed last season after hitting .300 with 31 HRs and 83 RBIs, but that appears to be the case. His actual stats lagged his expected stats by a fair margin in all five categories. Though his Statcast estimates lagged a bit behind his MVP winning 2020 #’s, they exceeded those of 2019 when Freeman hit 38 HRs and drove in 113 runs.

Despite his apparent “down year,” Freeman’s VBR last season was still #8 among hitters. If he’s on your fantasy team, you likely spent a first or second-round pick to get him. The good news is that there’s no sign that he’s slowing down and that he may even exceed last year’s totals. Resist the urge to trade him even if he gets off to a slow start with his new team.

Jorge Soler

 
Soler will not win any batting titles, but he should hit for a better average than last season. His 2021 was a “tale of two halves” as he hit a paltry .186 in the first half but raised that to .263 in the second half. His xISO of .245 is still very high, and if his ISO gets back closer to that average in 2022, Soler should exceed the 27 HRs he slugged last season. His new ballpark in Miami isn’t quite as cozy as Truist Park in Atlanta, but it’s light years better for right-handed power than Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City – where Soler played when he hit 48 HRs in 2019.

Soler is rostered in most leagues, but he’s worth a speculative add if he’s still out there on your waiver wire. The power looks legit, and the batting average should improve, making him a nice buy-low candidate at this early juncture.

NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

The flip-side of the positive regression candidates above are those who outpaced their expected stats in 2021. The two players with the most considerable discrepancies overall were Randy Arozarena (OF – TB) and Marcus Semien (2B, SS – TEX).

Randy Arozarena

 
Arozarena was the cover boy of an article I wrote in February about “Players That Got Lucky in 2021,” so it’s no surprise that he’s atop this list. Even so, his variances are pretty staggering. A fifty-point variance in batting average and ninety points in slugging percentage is no small feat, and the likelihood of a major adjustment on the horizon for Arozarena is high. That said, he exceeded his Statcast metrics in his first two seasons, albeit in only 99 plate appearances.

The most considerable risk for fantasy purposes is Arozarena’s batting average, which could also affect his SB totals if he’s on base less often in 2022. The power is there as he hits the ball hard when he makes contact, so he should hit 20 or more HRs again this year. If you drafted him recently and have the opportunity to sell high, you may want to consider it. Otherwise, you have to hope that he’ll continue to improve and that the Rays will put him in good situations to succeed – both are possible given his youth and the organization.

Marcus Semien

 
Semien’s power in 2021 is what sticks out the most. His ISO of .273 was ninth in baseball among qualified batters and .35 higher than the second-highest mark in his career in 2019. He hit 33 HRs that season vs. the 45 he slugged last year. Before 2019, Semien never exceeded the 30-HR/.200 ISO mark in his career. He could be developing more power as he ages as the Statcast data does reflect that his launch angle is getting higher and that his barrel% is trending up, but probably not to this extent. Ballpark factors may have aided him last year as well as he moved from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Colesium to the combination of TD Ballpark, Sahlen Field, and the Rogers Center. However, he’s a member of the Texas Rangers now, whose Globe Life Field has not been kind to hitters.

With an ADP of 30, most fantasy managers expect Semien to be pretty productive again in 2022. While this still could be the case, the law of averages and change in home ballpark suggest that he may not live up to that 3rd or 4th round draft selection. Much as was the case with Arozarena, if you have an opportunity to sell high on Semien early in the season, you should consider it.

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Scott Youngson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his Archive and Twitter @fantasymutant.