Positive & Negative Regression: Andrew Heaney, Aaron Nola, Freddy Peralta (2022)

Last week, I touched on some hitters in the first edition of the positive/negative regression column for 2022. This week I’ll focus on a few pitchers. Once again, this analysis uses 2021 season data as 2022 is just underway. I filtered the data to a minimum of 120 innings pitched for the pitchers, thus eliminating relievers from the analysis. The statistics I focused on were BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%, and ERA vs. a few ERA Estimators (xERA, xFIP, SIERA). Below are four starters primed for regression in 2022 – two to the positive and two to the negative. We’ll start with the positive regression candidates.

Positive Regression Candidates

Erick Fedde (SP – WAS), Jorge Lopez (SP, RP – BAL), Matt Harvey (SP – BAL), and Michael Wacha (SP, RP – BOS) ranked high on this list; however, I decided not to dig in on them for two reasons. First, their ownership percentages are almost non-existent. Second, even though their ERA’s were likely inflated last year, their ERA Estimators weren’t low enough to make them interesting for fantasy purposes anyway. Patrick Corbin (SP – WAS) also was a candidate, but after looking closely at his stats, I am not comfortable he’ll bounce back. Two other pitchers near the top of the list have a pretty good chance to rebound, in my opinion, namely: Andrew Heaney (SP, RP – LAD) and Aaron Nola (SP – PHI).

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is the ultimate fantasy tease as it feels like someone predicts he’ll break out every year, yet he never does. Last year, he appeared particularly unlucky as his ERA Estimators all painted a much rosier picture than his actual statistics. His problem in 2021 centered around his propensity to give up homers. His 2.01 HRs allowed per 9 was the fifth-worst among pitchers who threw at least 120 innings. He was particularly brutal during his short time in New York when he averaged 3.28 HR/9 in 35.2 innings pitched. If he can limit the long balls to league average this season, he could emerge as a solid sleeper given his upside in strikeouts and wins (since he now pitches for the Dodgers).

Speaking of his move to L.A., one might suspect that his new home ballpark could help him limit HRs. However, despite being a slightly below-average hitters park overall, Dodger stadium has been a worse park for HRs allowed than either Angels or Yankees Stadium. With the DH now in the National League, that advantage is also gone. On the other hand, the Dodgers often get the most out of their pitchers, and Heaney’s off to a fantastic start. He hasn’t given up an earned run yet and has sixteen strikeouts in 10.1 innings. If he’s available in your league, you may have to act fast to get him at this point. I wouldn’t give him too long a leash, though. If he starts to struggle, he’ll probably be a long man in the Dodgers bullpen.

Aaron Nola

Take away the unsightly ERA and paltry 9 Wins, and Nola looks like he had a pretty good year last year. All his ERA Estimators were over a run lower than his actual ERA, and his K/9 rate and WHIP were solid. That’s why he was still ranked as the tenth best SP pre-season in the ECR despite his down 2021 season. So what happened last year? For starters, the BABIP against him was on the high side, and his strand rate was his worst since 2016. A bad defense behind him didn’t help, but some of his misfortune was on him. He gave up far more flyballs than he has historically, and his barrel % was the highest of his career.

Nola’s first two starts of 2022 haven’t inspired confidence as he’s already given up 3 HRs in just over nine innings of work. It’s a long season, and there is still plenty of reason to think he can be a top fantasy pitcher again. If you drafted him, you’re likely stuck with him for the time being anyway, so your best bet is to ride it out and hope the positive regression starts to come.

Negative Regression Candidates

Walker Buehler (SP – LAD) was the top name on this list; however, his statistics look pretty good even with negative regression. Plus, I already touched on him in the offseason, so you can check out the article here if you’re interested. Lance Lynn (SP – CWS) is another player who looks due for negative regression, but given his injury, there isn’t much you can do with him at this point anyway if you drafted him. Two players who broke out last season and have some worrisome indicators are Cal Quantrill (SP, RP – CLE) and Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL), so let’s take a look at them in more detail:

Cal Quantrill

Quantrill started the 2021 season in Cleveland’s bullpen, but injuries forced him into the rotation in June. He remained there for the rest of the season and was surprisingly effective, posting eight wins, a 2.79 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP after June 15th. His 2021 performance earned him a spot in the Guardians rotation this season and made him a fantasy-relevant starter in most leagues. However, he appears to have had a bit of luck on his side last year. The low BABIP against him, high strand rate, and low HR/FB ratio probably helped him achieve such a low ERA and WHIP. As he’s not a pitcher who generates a lot of K’s, his fantasy value will disappear should those statistics go up – as his xFIP and SIERA suggest they may.

Quantrill has pitched pretty well thus far in 2022, with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.03 over 9.2 innings. He’s totaled only 4 K’s, however. If he can keep his ERA under 4.00, he may remain a serviceable fantasy starter in deep leagues but is probably better served as a streaming option.

Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta is really good, so don’t take this the wrong way. He should be an excellent pitcher again this year, so if you drafted him, don’t panic. However, a few metrics suggest that he had some luck on his side in 2021, which could lead to some negative regression this year. The .230 BABIP against him was the 2nd lowest among the pitchers I pulled, and his HR/FB rate was the eighth-lowest. So it’s likely he’ll see his ERA and WHIP climb a bit in 2022, though they should still be solid, and his high K-rate still should ensure he’s still a fantasy stud.

Outside of the strikeouts, Peralta’s first two starts this season haven’t gone well, primarily due to a severe lack of control. He’s walked six batters in only seven innings thus far. In addition, his BABIP regression has swung too far as opposing hitters have lit him up to the tune of .474 on balls in play. Things should even out for him, but you may want to temper your expectations if you spent an early draft pick on him. An ERA in the 3.50 to 4.00 range and a WHIP around 1.25 seem more likely than what he posted last season.

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Scott Youngson is a featured writer on FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter at @fantasymutant.