With the majority of free agency behind us and sights set firmly on the upcoming NFL Draft, now is the perfect time to take inventory of who has seen their value shift. Whether it’s due to competition being added around them or them moving on to find a more fruitful landing spot, keeping tabs on offseason storylines that can impact a player’s fantasy value is paramount to staying ahead of your league mates. Let’s dive into six players total, three of whom are trending up and three who are trending down.
Trending Up
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
After battling injuries and tumultuous quarterback play in his first two seasons with the Denver Broncos, Jerry Jeudy finally got the upgrade at quarterback that we’ve all been holding out hope for. The Denver Broncos acquired Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) in one of the first blockbuster trades of this offseason, and the arrow is firmly pointing up for Jeudy. When looking at the Broncos wide receiver group, don’t feel like this has to be a strict either-or proposition and be forced into choosing one of Jeudy or Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN). We’ve seen Wilson be able to sustain two relevant fantasy wide receivers in his career before. While the price to acquire Jeudy has certainly risen following the acquisition of Wilson, we may very well still be within a buy window for him before the season begins. After ranking first in the league in target separation and fourth in target separation versus man coverage (courtesy of Player Profiler), Jeudy could thrive with a long-awaited upgrade at quarterback.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Just like the aforementioned Jeudy, Michael Pittman Jr. received an upgrade at quarterback of his own this offseason. After the Colts witnessed the Carson Wentz (QB – WAS) experiment fail, they opted to move on from him and make a subsequent move to acquire former Atlanta Falcons signal-caller Matt Ryan (QB – IND). Despite Ryan’s prime years being mostly behind him, he should prove to be an immediate upgrade for Pittman Jr.’s upside while also being poised for a bounce-back season of his own. Pittman Jr. cemented himself as a legitimate lead receiver option in the Colts’ passing attack which will need to be respected thanks to the lethal presence of stud running back Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND). Look for Pittman Jr. to improve on his 2021 marks of 88 receptions, 1,082 yards, and six touchdowns and flirt with WR1 status in the 2022 season. You should feel comfortable rostering him as a locked-and-loaded WR2 moving forward.
AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) often grabs the headlines in the Green Bay Packers backfield, and he is certainly an exciting player in his own right, but it was AJ Dillon who led the Packers backfield both in rushing attempts and rushing yards in the 2021 season. While Jones did outpace him both in targets and receptions, he only narrowly edged out Dillon in receiving yards with 391 to Dillon’s 313. Following the departure of Davante Adams (WR – LV), look for a renewed focus on the running game in Green Bay in 2022. AJ Dillon has long been looked at as the heir apparent in the Packers backfield after being a second-round selection in 2020, and this could be the season he starts to take the full reigns of that backfield. Aaron Jones will not go away entirely, especially in the passing game, but Dillon is no slouch in that area either.
Trending Down
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
After being selected in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020, hopes were high for the former LSU standout running back. Unfortunately, he has not fully realized his potential. He’s never topped 803 rushing yards in a single season and has not seen the utilization in the passing game that many expected when the Chiefs selected him. His targets dropped from 54 in 2020 to just 23 in 2021. While it was in three fewer games overall, that’s a dip from just over four targets per game to just over two targets per game. If he cannot supplement his value with a high share of the receiving targets in this offense, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for him to ever fully realize his potential. The Chiefs also agreed to a one-year deal with Ronald Jones (RB – KC) this offseason, which very well could eat into Edwards-Helaire’s work in the ground game. He is best treated as a high-end RB3 moving forward instead of the player we once thought had top-12 upside at the position.
Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV)
Hunter Renfrow just enjoyed his best season to date in his short professional career, so why is he trending down? Unfortunately for Renfrow, it has everything to do with the moves made around him. The Las Vegas Raiders went all-in on reuniting Derek Carr (QB – LV) with his former college teammate and stud wide receiver, Davante Adams. Adams has been an absolute target monster for the Green Bay Packers over the years, and while there’s no telling he’ll receive the same massive market share that he did in Green Bay, he should easily pace the Raiders in targets. Renfrow led the Raiders in targets a season ago with 128, but that was also with Darren Waller (TE – LV) only appearing in 11 games in 2021. The focal points of this passing attack figure to be Adams and Waller, and while Renfrow will maintain some fantasy value, it’s highly unlikely he finishes as a top-12 option as he did in 2021.
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)
The entire Baltimore Ravens backfield was injured before the start of the 2021 season, and while it may be unfair to simply paint Edwards as the lone candidate for trending down, it’s also the most likely. Edwards and fellow running back JK Dobbins (RB – BAL) are both recovering from torn ACLs, but Dobbins still has the higher draft capital on his side. This backfield always figured to be some semblance of a committee, but recent reports of the Ravens discussing a contract with free-agent running back Melvin Gordon (RB – FA) indicate that they’re not sold on the current state of this running back room. While speculatory, I would bet that if Gordon was signed, he forms a committee with Dobbins, essentially overtaking the role Edwards was slated for a season ago.
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