NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (4/28)

We’ve had a ton of success in the postseason. This is always one of my favorite times to play DFS because most of the wacky rotation stuff is eradicated . We have the premier players playing monster minutes, and it’s just up to us to pick the right guys at the right salaries. Eliminating some of those other regular-season variables makes things much easier on us, and it has me excited to get into this slate!

Man, this is an exciting slate! I don’t think I’ve been more excited than I am for this card because we have three elimination games! They’re all Game 6s, and all three matchups have spreads within three points.

Schedule and Odds

PHI at TOR (PHI -1.5) O/U: 209.5
Toronto shocked everyone by winning Game 5 in Philly, forcing a Game 6. No team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in NBA history, but a win here could get them to a Game 7. The winner will face the Miami Heat in the next round.

PHX at NOP (PHX -1) O/U: 215
Phoenix took care of business in Game 5 and leads this series, 3-2. Whoever wins this series will play the winner of the Dallas-Utah series.

DAL at UTA (DAL -2) O/U: 209
Dallas took Utah to the woodshed in Game 5, winning, 102-77. They held the Jazz to 3-of-30 from three-point range, but this should be a much more competitive game.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Matisse Thybulle (vaccine) OUT
• Fred VanVleet (hip) Doubtful
• Devin Booker (hamstring) OUT
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• Tim Hardaway (foot) OUT

Core Plays

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Embiid is one of the best players in the NBA and is always one of the safest bets in DFS. The big man has scored at least 28 DraftKings points in every game this season, surpassing 39 fantasy points in all but four fixtures. That’s led to his absurd 56-point average for the year, and we certainly don’t mind his recent price drop. In eight meetings with Toronto this season, Embiid is averaging 47 fantasy points per game. That’s below his season average, but it’s still a fantastic total from a $10K player.

Scottie Barnes (SF/PF – TOR): $6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
This pricing makes no sense. Barnes was playing at an $8K level for the final two months of the season, averaging 36 fantasy points per game since the beginning of March. That alone is huge from a player in this price range, especially since Scottie played 41 minutes in Game 5. Fred VanVleet sitting out is the icing on the cake, with Barnes playing point guard in his absence and averaging over 40 DK points per game when FVV has been out this year.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
On a three-game slate like this, it’s impossible to fade Luka. He’s got at least 53 DraftKings points in 10 straight games, posting a 60-point average in that span. He was the league leader in usage rate during the regular season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him provide 40 minutes, 25 shots, and a 40 percent usage rate in this closeout Game 6.

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $9,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
CP3 is one of the greatest point guards of all time, and he’s showing us why. The Point God has at least 44 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, stepping up in the absence of Devin Booker. That puts him in line for 35 minutes, 20 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate which is scary since Paul can provide 50 DK points with a 20 percent usage rate. He’s killed the Pelicans all year, too, averaging nearly 49 DK points per game in their seven matchups.

GPP Targets

Bojan Bogdanovic (SF – UTA): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Bogdanovic just had a nightmarish outing in Game 5, but he’s been too good to be this cheap. The sharpshooter has at least 20 DK points in 13 of his last 14 games, scoring 27 DK points or more in 11 of those. That aligns with his fantastic 32-point average in that span, and he should be much better in this elimination home game. He was superb against Dallas before that Game 5 dud, too, averaging 31 DK points per game in their first seven meetings.

Gary Trent (SG/SF- TOR): $6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Trent can be one of the best shooters in the game when he’s feeling it. He has been recently, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in the last three games of this series. They simply need him to play more and shoot more in the absence of FVV, making him a solid bet for 20 shots and 40 minutes. As long as GT gets that sort of workload, he should be able to provide value at this sub-$7K price tag. He’s played well against Philly all year, averaging 28 DraftKings points per game in their nine matchups.

Value Plays

Jae Crowder (SF/PF – PHX): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Stacking Phoenix players has been profitable in the absence of Booker because that’s 40 minutes and 20 shots out of the lineup. That leaves more on the plate of these role players, with Crowder averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game when Book has sat this season. He’s struggled with his shot, but as long as he’s chucking up 10 threes a night and playing 30-40 minutes, he shouldn’t be this cheap.

Dwight Powell (PF/C – DAL): $3,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Powell is risky, but he might be a great pairing with guys like Doncic and Embiid. The big man has turned his season around over the last two months, averaging 23 DK points per game across his last 21 outings. That’s all you can hope for from such a cheap player, and we certainly don’t mind that Powell needs to play more to oppose Rudy Gobert. If he gets hot and plays 25-30 minutes, Powell will be in every optimal lineup out there.

Advantageous Pricing

• Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $9,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
• Mikal Bridges (SG/SF – PHX): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
• OG Anunoby (SG/SF – TOR): $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
• Tyrese Maxey (PG/SG – PHI): $6,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Spencer Dinwiddie (PG/SG – DAL): $5,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

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