This is starting to get exciting. This might be the best slate we’ve had, and it feels like more momentum builds every day these series get deeper. We’re getting closer and closer to some elimination games, and these early-round matchups are just as important as the late ones.
We’ve had some blowouts in the first week of the playoffs, but that will not happen here. We have all three spreads within six points, with three Western Conference teams on display. There’s plenty to discuss when looking at these matchups, so let’s get started with the schedule and odds!
Schedule and Odds
MEM at MIN (MEM -1) O/U: 240
After that Memphis win in Game 2, we have a 1-1 split heading back to Minnesota.
DAL at UTA (UTA -6) O/U: 210.5
These teams split the first two games in Dallas. It’s now a five-game series.
GSW at DEN (GSW – 1.5) O/U: 224.5
Golden State has dominated the first two games of this series, winning by a combined 36 points.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
- Luka Doncic (calf) OUT
- Tim Hardaway Jr.(foot) OUT
- Michael Porter Jr.(back) OUT
- Jamal Murray (knee) OUT
- James Wiseman (knee) OUT
Core Plays
Jalen Brunson (PG/SG – DAL): $8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
We need to put a quick disclaimer on this. If Luka does end up playing, we will fade Brunson at this price. With that said, he’s probably $1,000 too cheap if Doncic does end up sitting. He handles the ball on every possession when Luka is out, dropping 66 DraftKings points in Game 2. He’s averaging over 40 DK points per game when Doncic sits, posting a 41-point average in five meetings with the Jazz this year.
Bojan Bogdanovic (SF – UTA): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
It’s hard to understand why Bogey is just $6K on both sites. This guy has found his shot recently, scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s got a 36-point average across his previous four games, which makes this pricing tough to understand. He’s done well against Dallas all year too, averaging 32 fantasy points per game in their five meetings.
Cash Game Considerations
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
This might be the last week that you get to use this guy. There’s no better option in DFS, with The Joker averaging nearly 62 DK points per game. His floor is even more ridiculous, scoring at least 41 DK points in all but one game this season. He’s also crushed the Warriors, averaging 61.3 DK points in their three matchups. That’s scary since Denver has a must-win game here, making Jokic a legitimate threat for a 30-point triple-double.
Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
This guy won’t have another bad game in the postseason. He’s scored at least 34 DK points in every game for two straight months now, providing a 51-point average in that span. He’s done exactly that recently, scoring 51 or more DK points in back-to-back games. That will be a regular occurrence in this series, with Minnesota sitting 20th in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
GPP Targets
Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF/C – MEM): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
There’s no better GPP play on this slate. JJJ has flashed a 50-point potential on numerous occasions this season, and no other player in this price range has the upside that this guy does. He’s shown that against this terrible T’Wolves defense, averaging 34 fantasy points per game in their six meetings this season.
Steven Adams (C – MEM): $4,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
There’s a chance that Adams plays two minutes like he did in Game 2, but there’s also a chance that he’ll be the best value play on this slate. The big man was regularly a $6K player throughout the regular season, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game. If he somehow reaches that attainable average, Adams would be impossible to fade in this $4K price range.
Value Plays
Patrick Beverley (PG – MIN): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Here he is again. Beverley has been in this section for months now, scoring at least 23 DK points in all but four games over the last three months. He’s also averaging nearly 29 fantasy points per game in that span. Pat-Bev has shown that ability recently, scoring at least 29 DK points in four of his last six games. Matching up with Memphis has been fantastic, too, with Beverley averaging 27 DraftKings points per game in their seven matchups.
Monte Morris (PG/SG – DEN): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
This is the most mind-boggling pricing on this slate. Morris has taken over starting point guard duties in the absence of Jamal Murray and playing the best basketball of his career. He’s actually flirting with a 30-point average over the last 26 games played, and has been killing Golden State all year. In fact, Monte is generating a 28-point average in five matchups with the Warriors this season. Good luck finding that from another player this cheap, especially one in such a critical game.
Advantageous Pricing
- Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG – UTA): $8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
- Jordan Poole (PG/SG – GSW): $8,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
- Klay Thompson (SG/SF – GSW): $6,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
- Desmond Bane (SG/SF – MEM): $6,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
- Reggie Bullock (SG – DAL): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.