NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Friday (4/22)

This is my favorite time to play DFS. We finally get thinner rotations at this time of the year and it caters beautifully to players like us. Having thinner rotations leads to more predictable outcomes and it gives us a major advantage with so much information in our favor!

This is actually my favorite part of the postseason. Starting Game 3 and 4, it’s a different series. We have the underdog returning home and this is always when the series are decided. It should also lead to some closer games than usual, with the inferior team finally getting some homecourt advantage. That has left us with three tiny spreads and that’s all we can ask for as DFS aficionados.

Schedule and Odds

MIA at ATL (MIA -2.5) O/U: 221.5

Miami enters this matchup with a 2-0 series lead.

MIL at CHI (MIL -1.5) O/U: 223.5

Chicago grabbed a surprising win on Wednesday, tying this series at 1-1.

PHX at NOP (PHX -1.5) O/U: 216.5

The Pelicans Game 2 win was the most shocking victory of the season. It has this series tied at 1-1.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Clint Capela (ankle) Questionable
• Lonzo Ball (knee) OUT
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• Devin Booker (hamstring( Questionable
• Khris Middleton (knee) OUT

Core Plays

Jimmy Butler (SF – MIA): $8,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Butler is one of the most motivated athletes in professional sports and he’s simply going to be better when the games matter more. He certainly showed that in Game 2, dropping 65 DraftKings points in a career performance. We love that since he’s established a 30-point floor for the season and it should continue against a 26th-ranked Hawks defense.

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $8,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
This couldn’t be a better spot. Much like Jimmy, CP3 always steps up when the lights are the brightest. That’s certainly the case in a 1-1 series and Paul should be asked to do a ton with Booker expected to miss this game. CP3 is averaging nearly 45 fantasy points per game when Booker is out, seeing his minutes, shot attempts and usage skyrocket with the All-Star off the floor. This is the easiest play of the day and he should be in every lineup as long as Book remains out.

Cash Game Considerations

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C – MIL): $11,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Giannis is one of the best cash game plays no matter how many teams are playing. He’s particularly valuable on a three-game card, with Antetokounmpo scoring at least 31 DraftKings points in every game this year while cracking 38 or more in all but two outings. That’s scary for Chicago, with Giannis scoring at least 55 DK points in four straight fixtures, en route to a 61-point average in that span. He’s also been traditionally better in the postseason and should continue that success against a 24th-ranked Chicago defense.

Deandre Ayton (C – PHX): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
This guy just needs to do more. Ayton is a double-double machine and he should be a monster with Booker out of the lineup. That means his shots, usage and rebounding would skyrocket, which is amazing since he’ll be looking at 35-40 minutes in this must-win spot. He’s crushed New Orleans all year too, scoring at least 28 DK points in all four of their matchups, while posting a 35-point average against them. Look for that to be his floor in such a prime spot.

GPP Targets

John Collins (PF/C – ATL): $5,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Collins has had his minutes capped the last two games since his return from injury but this pricing is crazy. This guy has shown $8K potential just a few months back and he needs to do more in the absence of Clint Capela. That was on full display when he had a double-double across 29 minutes in Game 2, making him a candidate for 35 minutes here. If he plays that much, Collins should be in every lineup with this sort of pricing.

Patrick Williams (SF/PF – CHI): $4,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Williams has been handed the starting job over the last six games and it’s hard to understand why he remains so affordable. He’s averaging 27 DK points per game across 31 minutes a night in that stretch, playing a ton to cover this lengthy Milwaukee team. Any player this cheap playing that much should never remain this cheap, particularly when it’s such a talented youngster like this.

Value Plays

Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Why is Bro-Lo still in this price range? He’s finally gotten back to a full allotment of minutes, playing 30-35 minutes a night in this series. He’s a $7,000 player when he’s receiving that workload, especially since he’s averaging 33 DraftKings points per game across his last five fixtures. He’s had more success against Chicago than any other team this season, averaging over 35 fantasy points per game against them. We also don’t mind that he’ll be asked to do more in the absence of Khris Middleton.

Cameron Johnson (SG/SF – PHX): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
This is probably the best value play of the day. Johnson always tends to start when Booker is out of the lineup, seeing his minutes and shot attempts nearly double in these circumstances. He’s actually averaging 28 DK points per game in these situations and you can’t ask for any more from such an affordable player. This is a brilliant matchup too, with the Pelicans ranked 18th in total defense in the regular season while owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing small forwards.

Advantageous Pricing

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $8,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C – MIL): $11,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel

DeMar DeRozan (SF/PF – CHI): $8,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel

Tyler Herro (PG/SG – MIA): $6,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG – ATL): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Larry Nance (PF/C – NOP): $4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

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