Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.
The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”
Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.
Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 3 Trade Value Chart:
Risers
Kyle Wright (SP – ATL) . Week 3 Value: 7. Previous Value: N/A. Change: +7
It’s worth spending a little more time explaining the movement for Wright because, frankly, it’s fascinating. The easy explanation is that Wright was barely drafted in 12-team leagues to begin the season, so no one should have expected him to have trade value at the outset. But after three starts, it’s time to buy in, at least a bit.
Let’s start with the basics: Wright is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, a 39.4% strikeout rate, and 3.0% walk rate. Yes, he’s faced some teams with weak offenses, including the Marlins and the Reds. But, out of nowhere or not, fantasy managers can’t ignore those numbers.
Part of the reason they shouldn’t ignore them is that there are some tangible things that we can latch onto to explain his success. First, he’s increased his velocity. After averaging 93.6 miles per hour with his fastball last year, he’s averaging 95.3 miles per hour with it this year. He’s seen a similar jump in velocity in all his pitches.
Second, he’s changed up his pitch mix. Wright’s curveball has usually been the third or fourth pitch in his arsenal, which he deployed 13% of the time on average in each of the previous three seasons. This year? He’s using it 33.8% of the time so far, and with ridiculous results (.125 BA, .125 SLG, .159 wOBA).
Wright’s curveball never had this level of success before, so what’s changed now? Well, truthfully, it’s not really a curveball anymore. Wright’s increased curveball usage has come with a corresponding drop in his slider usage (just 6.8% this year after 27.1% last year and 24.2% the year before). And when you look at what is classified as Wright’s curveball, you see some noticeable differences from the previous iteration of the pitch.
The velocity is up two-to-four miles per hour, depending on what year you look at. It moves much less than any previous version of the pitch. And remember, he rarely throws his slider. So add all that together, and what do we have? Wright hasn’t drastically improved his curveball. Instead, he has effectively combined his slider and curveball into a slurve.
And that helps explain the third reason Wright has been so effective this year: batters are chasing his pitches outside of the strike zone at an enormous rate. In his career, batters have swung at 28.1% of Wright’s pitches that are outside of the zone. This year, that number is 40.5%. They’re also making less contact with his pitches generally, both in and out of the zone. With a brand new pitch, it’s understandable that batters have not yet adjusted.
So, there’s a lot to be excited about, and enough to move Wright up significantly in trade value. But also remember that through three starts, teams are basing their approach largely on scouting reports of Wright from previous years. It remains to be seen how he’ll perform once teams figure out this whole new-pitch, higher-velocity version of him. So don’t go giving up the farm just yet to add him to your roster.
Shane McClanahan (SP – TB). Week 3 Value: 19. Previous Value: N/A. Change: +5
Shane McClanahan is really good. That’s basically what this comes down to. His 36% strikeout rate and 30.2% K-BB rate rank fourth in the league among starters. His 18.8% swinging strike rate ranks second and his 37.9% CSW rate ranks first. He is utterly elite.
Frankly, the real question is why hasn’t he been moved higher? And the answer to that is really just concerns about his innings. The Rays are as proactive as any team in baseball at protecting their young starters, and McClanahan threw just 123 1/3 innings last year. It’s hard to see Tampa Bay pushing him much past a 30- or 40-inning jump, and if they’re on a path to make the playoffs, then they’re likely to save some of his bullets.
With that said, expect McClanahan to rise incrementally if he continues to pitch this effectively.
Taylor Ward (OF – LAA). Week 3 Value: 4. Previous Value: N/A. Change: +4
Ward is fairly low in the trade chart, but it’s worth talking about why a player who was a total afterthought has pushed his way onto it at all. Unless you play in an eight-team league, you’re aware that Ward is off to a phenomenal start. He’s slashing a cool .367/.525/.700 entering play on Tuesday. He’s got a .526 wOBA and a . . . wait for it . . . 25% walk rate.
Ward was a first-round draft pick back in 2014 and he had a monster season in Triple-A back in 2019. But he’s never been able to put it together in the majors to this point, even though fantasy managers desperately tried to will him to do because of his one-time catcher eligibility.
Ward will regress, of course. He’s not going to sustain a .421 BABIP, and pitchers are eventually going to catch on to the fact that the guy barely swings (37% swing percentage, 12th-lowest in the league). But when Joe Maddon said that he would give Ward regular at-bats, fantasy managers cursed under their collective breath at the effect on Jo Adell. From the early returns, it certainly looks like Maddon knew what he was doing.
Fallers
Justin Turner (3B – LAD). Week 3 Value: 3. Previous Value: 7. Change: -4
Turner’s early-season slump may be just that. After all, although he’s striking out more and walking less, neither is to a degree that would ordinarily raise red flags. Perhaps in a month, fantasy managers will forget about these first three weeks entirely.
Or, perhaps this is the beginning of the end for the 37-year-old. He’s swinging far more but making contact far less, oftentimes the sign of an aging player with declining bat speed. His quality of contact is awful, not just significantly below his career marks, but far below league averages.
There are plenty of signs that Turner is in real decline. And, as a fantasy manager, you’d be doing yourself a disservice if you failed to take those into account in evaluating his trade value.
Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL). Week 3 Value: 9. Previous Value: 12. Change: -3
Swanson has simply been awful thus far. We are talking .172/.250/.276 (entering Tuesday). No home runs. A 40.6% strikeout rate. Terrible quality of contact all around.
But there are two reasons Swanson’s value hasn’t dropped even more. The first is he has a decent track record at this point. Three straight years of being a starting-caliber player in mixed leagues with potential 30-homer power and enough speed to swipe double-digit bags each year.
The second is Swanson’s April last year. He slashed .189/.267/.316 with two home runs. His strikeout rate wasn’t quite this bad, but still. Swanson started terribly last year before ultimately being a valuable fantasy shortstop. That doesn’t mean we ignore the slow start. But it does prevent his trade value from dropping like a stone.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
