Welcome to the biggest wave of opening day prospect promotions in recent memory. With the new CBA giving teams more of an incentive to bring up their top prospects on opening day, we’re seeing more and more teams give these young, talented players that call, which is a beautiful thing for us in fantasy.
We’re going to see several top-hitting prospects debut on opening day, and all of them have the potential to make a good-to-great impact right away. I’ll be discussing these players today and what to expect short-term in 2022 and long-term in dynasty.
NOTE: This list will not include players that debuted last season like Joey Bart, Reid Detmers, Joe Ryan, etc. One lone exception to this was made for Josh Lowe.
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC)
Regardless of whether he was called up on opening day or later in April, Bobby Witt Jr.’s ADP was cemented inside the top-100. And while I have zero shares of him in redraft leagues this season (several in dynasty), I completely understand why people were reaching higher to secure his services. Witt Jr.’s immense offensive upside could land him as a first-round fantasy talent one day, and I’m personally experiencing a slight case of FOMO with my zero redraft shares.
Oh my. Bobby Witt Jr. with an absolute BOMB. ???
Stream: Bally Sports app#Royals pic.twitter.com/kcbMuP3Szr
— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) March 22, 2022
Witt Jr. is coming off a 33/29 showing with a .290/.361/.576 slash line in the upper minors last season and has hit .406 with three doubles, three homers, and two steals in 34 PA this spring. Both of those strong showings are why Kansas City is making him their starting third baseman on opening day. Witt Jr.’s double-plus raw power has been on full display along with his plus-or-better speed and above-average-to-plus hit tool. Lost in his strong performance is the fact that he’s only struck out 8.8% of the time this spring.
No prospect is a guarantee, even the best of the best. Still, Witt Jr. has the offensive skillset to make a significant fantasy impact right away and potentially finish the season as a top-25 overall player.
2022 Projection: .265/24/18 | Peak Upside: .280+/35/25
Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)
Honestly, I didn’t think Seattle would do it, but I’m glad they did. The Mariners will add phenom Julio Rodriguez to their opening day roster, adding to an already exciting lineup for 2022. Rodriguez is coming off a ridiculous showing in 2021, where he slashed .347/.441/.560 with 19 doubles, 13 homers, and 21 steals in just 340 plate appearances between Hi-A and Double-A.
Those 21 steals aren’t entirely due to Single-A inflation either, as 16 of those came in Double-A. Rodriguez isn’t going to be a 30-40 steal threat, but his speed has always been vastly underrated, and he’s shown the desire to want to run often on the basepaths.
Adding even 15-steals annually to his elite potential with the bat is just simply unfair. Rodriguez is one of the best pure hitters I’ve ever seen, and we could see peak seasons similar to what Miguel Cabrera was putting up around a decade ago, plus double-digit steals. It will be a fun race for the American League Rookie of the Year award between Rodriguez and Witt Jr., and possibly even the next player on this list.
2022 Projection: .275/26/14 | Peak Upside: .290+/35+/15
Spencer Torkelson (1B – DET)
If it weren’t for a broken foot, Riley Greene would be joining Spencer Torkelson in Detroit on opening day. But for now, we’ll have to settle for one exciting Detroit prospect instead of two. The former 2020 No. 1 overall pick came as advertised in the minors, slashing .267/.383/.552 last season with 29 doubles and 30 homers in 121 games. He also performed well in my live looks out in the Arizona Fall League, collecting several hits in the three games I saw with no long balls.
Spencer Torkelson AFL mix.
No HR in my three live looks, but had six hits (all below) with a few hard-hit balls. Used the entire field well
Top-10 prospect for me with .270+/35+ upside. Likely up with Detroit mid-2022.#DetroitRoots pic.twitter.com/vRJX5TYo2l
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 17, 2021
Torkelson’s power is his calling card, but he’s an above-average hitter who can use the entire field well while walking at a high clip and keeping his strikeouts in check. While he might only be around a .270 hitter, Torkelson could flirt with a .400 OBP annually while cranking 30+ homers as a middle-of-the-order force for Detroit. He could easily be within top-10 status at first base this season and could settle in around the likes of Matt Olson and Pete Alonso long-term as a top-five dynasty first baseman.
2022 Projection: .260/26 | Peak Upside: .270/35
Josh Lowe (OF – TBR)
“Rays gonna Ray” has become an unfortunate motto in the baseball and fantasy baseball world. The latest victims of this appeared to be Josh Lowe and Vidal Brujan. That was until the Austin Meadows trade opened up an outfield spot for Lowe, who received a brief cup of coffee with the team in 2021. He has steadily improved every season as a pro, with his best two years coming in 2019 and 2021, where he saw his game power finally begin to catch up to his above-average-to-plus raw power.
Combined, Lowe cranked 40 homers in 989 PA after hitting just 19 in his first 1176 PA. In 2021, Lowe reached a career-high 22 dingers along with 26 steals and a .291/.381/.535 slash line. He also wasn’t caught on any of his 26 stolen base attempts either. If Lowe is sitting on your league’s waiver wire, I’d recommend adding him in all 12+ team leagues. He could flirt with a 15/20 season in 2022 and has top-15 outfielder upside long-term if everything clicks.
2022 Projection: .255/15/19 | Peak Upside: .260-.270/20/25
Bryson Stott (SS – PHI)
Bryson Stott is one of the most underrated top-100 baseball prospects. Why? He doesn’t possess any singular standout tool, and despite his rock-solid all-around skill set, these types often don’t get as much love as they should in our fantasy world. It’s a shame, but it does create a solid buying opportunity for 2022 leagues and dynasty too.
Stott saw time in Hi-A, Double-A, and Triple-A last season, combining for 26 doubles, 16 homers, and 10 steals in 112 games with a .299/.390/.486 slash line. He’s always been a high OBP guy thanks to his above-average contact skills and patient approach at the plate that saw him post a 13.3% walk rate last season. Stott also had a contact rate above 75% in both Double-A and Triple-A. Out in the AFL, he was one of the top players this season with a .445 OBP in 26 games to go along with two homers, five steals, and more walks than strikeouts.
His power/speed combo will never stand out. But Stott’s shown above-average grades in both and could settle in as a 20/15 threat shortly, contributing a high AVG/OBP and flirting with 100 runs annually as a top-of-the-order catalyst.
2022 Projection: .265/16/11 | Peak Upside: .280 (.375+ OBP)/22/15
Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU)
One of the brightest stars in spring training has been Jeremy Pena. In 2021, Pena was limited to 37 games but shined brightly in those games with 18 extra-base hits, 10 homers, and six steals with a .297/.363/.579 slash line.
On top of being an above-average defender at shortstop, Pena has displayed an above-average hit tool with above-average power and speed. His bat speed from the right side is exceptional, and he began elevating more to his pull side in 2021, which is ideal in Houston. This type of player could quietly put together a .270/15/15 kind of season in Houston with the upside for more long-term.
2022 Projection: .270/17/12 | Peak Upside: .280/20+/15
Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)
He’s the least-heralded of this group, but Steven Kwan should definitely at least be on your radar this season. Entering 2021, Kwan was considered a high-contact/AVG hitter with a phenomenal approach and a little speed with minimal power.
That remains true, but Kwan hit for more power in 2021, cranking 12 homers in 341 plate appearances with a .527 SLG and .199 ISO – all career-best marks. But it’s Kwan’s contact skills that stand out. We’re talking truly elite contact rates of 88.1% in Double-A and 92.2% in Triple-A. If he can consistently get into the 15-homer range with 5-7 steals to go with his high AVG, Kwan could surprise in fantasy leagues.
2022 Projection: .270/13/6 | Peak Upside: .290/15+/10
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Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. You can check out more of his work on his Archive or Twitter @EricCross04.
