A running theme from this year continues tonight, with differing start times for the main slate between FanDuel and DraftKings. The former has a 10-game main slate that begins at 6:40 pm ET. The latter has a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
I like the top-end pitchers while the bargain arms leave a lot to be desired. The top pitching option is the same across both daily fantasy providers. However, he has stiff competition for headline billing on FanDuel after factoring in the salary savings spinning down to the second pitcher in the table.
A running theme from this year continues tonight, with differing start times for the main slate between FanDuel and DraftKings. The former has a 10-game main slate that begins at 6:40 pm ET. The latter has a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
I like the top-end pitchers while the bargain arms leave a lot to be desired. The top pitching option is the same across both daily fantasy providers. However, he has stiff competition for headline billing on FanDuel after factoring in the salary savings spinning down to the second pitcher in the table.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Carlos Rodon (SF) at NYM
Rodon broke out for the White Sox last year, but shoulder fatigue late in the year after a spike in workload provided a reason for concern entering 2022. Rodon's promptly eradicated any worries by shoving it down the throats of the Marlins and Guardians in two starts.
Through his first 12 innings with the Giants, he's allowed just five hits, four walks, and two strikeouts with a scintillating 21 strikeouts. Per FanGraphs, Rodon's elite strikeout rate has been wholly supported by a gaudy 35.2 CSW%.
Rodon will be flanked by pitcher-friendly Citi Field tonight. According to our park factors, Citi Field has the third-lowest mark for runs (0.881). In addition, Betting Pros lists the Giants as -112 favorites in a projected pitcher's duel, evidenced by an over/under of 7.0 runs. Although Rodon's listed in the cash game recommendations section, he's also an elite GPP pick.
Marcus Stroman (CHC) vs. TB
Stroman is only a cash game recommendation on DraftKings' two-pitcher platform. He's a nifty GPP option on FanDuel, though. Stroman pitched well in his first start of the 2022 campaign before a messy turn at Coors Field in his second start. So if you think I'm holding a bad start at the hitter's paradise in Colorado against him, you're incorrect.
Since last year, Stroman has ramped up his changeup usage and cut back his curve usage while continuing to mix a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, and slider. The righty's pitch-mix tweak helped him post new career-highs for swinging-strike rate (11.6 SwStr%) and strikeout rate (21.6 K%). Stroman's uptick in strikeouts paired beautifully with his high ground-ball rate, resulting in a 3.02 ERA, albeit a lucky ERA relative to his 4.30 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA.
Thanks to his matchup and salary, Stroman is an adequate SP2 in cash games at DraftKings. Tampa Bay's offense has a few tricky spots, but it also features a lot of mediocrity and exploitable strikeout rates against righties. Thus, Stroman should strike out enough batters to deliver value at his salary and has the potential to exceed modest expectations.
GPP Recommendations:
Luis Severino (NYY) at DET
Severino is back. He's pumping finely-aged cheddar, dialing it up to an average of 97.7 mph, per FanGraphs. In two starts lasting eight innings, he's tallied a 2.25 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 2.49 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 52.4 GB%, and 29.1 CSW%.
I imagine you paused at the eight innings. However, don't fret. Severino tossed 83 pitches in five innings in his previous start, meaning he should be a go for 90-plus pitches. I expect Severino to keep rolling in a plus matchup against Detroit's struggling offense. The Tigers are 29th in wRC+ (64) against righties, and their hitters are largely an underwhelming group against righties.
Finally, the betting info is tantalizing. According to Betting Pros, the Bronx Bombers are -182 favorites, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. TEX
The revamped Rangers are no longer a toothless offense. Nevertheless, they're off to a slow start. Texas has been 26th in wRC+ (75) against righties.
Conversely, Gilbert is off to a fast start. In two starts lasting 10 innings, he has had a 0.90 ERA, 1.85 xERA, 2.64 SIERA, 0.80 WHIP, 2.5 BB%, and 27.5 K%. Gilbert has also thrown precisely 85 pitches in each turn. Thus, he doesn't face a restrictive pitch limit.
Finally, the park factors and betting info are in Gilbert's favor. T-Mobile Park has the seventh-lowest park factor for runs (0.911). In addition, the M's are -154 favorites, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Daniel Lynch has been ill-equipped to handle big-league hitting. Namely, he's been rocked by righties, allowing a .527 SLG and .392 wOBA to 300 of them. The Twins' projected lineup above includes eight batters that take right-handed cuts against southpaws. In addition, they could have a lineup full of righties if they start Ryan Jeffers. Thus, they're built to make Lynch's start a nightmare tonight.
- Road (Oakland Coliseum)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/BAL +110
Your eyes aren't deceiving you. I'm suggesting the O's as a GPP stack. Sadly, Baltimore's lineup is top-heavy. Regardless, the top five hitters are attractive options at bargain salaries in a good matchup. Daulton Jefferies has had a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 innings after squaring off with the Phillies and Blue Jays to open the year. However, his underlying stats stink. Jefferies also had a 4.91 ERA and 4.94 xFIP in his stop at the Triple-A level. Thus, I think the Orioles can shine against him tonight.
- Juan Soto has been a monster with the platoon advantage in his career, tattooing righties for a .455 OBP, .267 ISO, and 168 wRC+.
- Carlos Correa hasn't quite found his footing with the Twins yet. Nevertheless, since 2019, he has had a .393 OBP and 137 wRC+ against lefties.
- Sadly, I don't have any inside info about Byron Buxton returning to the lineup tonight. Still, the Twins haven't placed him on the 10-day IL. So, I suspect a return is nearing. I'll gladly use his .286 ISO against lefties since 2019 in GPPs against Lynch tonight if he's back.
- Giancarlo Stanton has torched lefties in his career. The yolked veteran outfielder's batted ball data has also been in his typical rarified air, despite underwhelming results so far.
- Anthony Santander is off to an excellent start with the plate discipline and batted-ball data to support it. Further, since 2019, he has had a .236 ISO against righties. As a result, he's my favorite value play tonight.
- Gary Sanchez is a boom-or-bust player. Still, at his salary, I'll take the boom that's come in the form of a .261 ISO against lefties since 2019.
- I'm flabbergasted by Gio Urshela's salary on DraftKings. He's only $200 above the minimum salary there. Does that seem reasonable for a player projected to hit in the top four of a lineup in a plus matchup? Moreover, he has had a 120 wRC+ against lefties since 2019.
- Gleyber Torres hasn't resembled the ascending talent he was in 2018-2019 in the last two years. Still, he has had a .350 OBP, .230 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against lefties in his career, including a 120 wRC+ in 2021.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
I'm all over the Twins tonight. However, I love the Orioles' value on both sites, and the Bronx Bombers have some excellent value picks on FanDuel.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
