Tuesday night’s main slate is the first normal slate of the 2022 MLB season. First, it starts at 7:05 PM ET. Second, it features a hearty nine games.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
As pitchers are ramping their pitch counts up in the early going, I'm hunting for value from the mid-tier on tonight's slate, for the most part. However, Luis Garcia is enticing if you're interested in using him with a cheap stack.
Tuesday night’s main slate is the first normal slate of the 2022 MLB season. First, it starts at 7:05 PM ET. Second, it features a hearty nine games.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
As pitchers are ramping their pitch counts up in the early going, I'm hunting for value from the mid-tier on tonight's slate, for the most part. However, Luis Garcia is enticing if you're interested in using him with a cheap stack.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. SD
Cobb is a steal at both daily fantasy baseball providers tonight. Last year, in 18 starts totaling 93.1 innings for the Angels, he had a 3.76 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 3.83 SIERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.4 BB%, 24.9 K%, 53.3 GB%, and 30.0 CSW%, per FanGraphs.
The righty averaged a career-high 93.2 mph on his fastball, too. Remarkably, he's throwing harder this year. Offseason work at Driveline has resulted in Cobb sitting in the 94-95 mph range and pumping it up to 97 mph in spring training. Cobb's ERA estimators were good last year. Now, throwing harder, the veteran's ceiling is even higher. As a result, I love Cobb in all formats at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs. MIA
Unfortunately, I couldn't locate a pitch count for Sandoval in his last spring training start. Nevertheless, he pitched 4.2 innings, allowing two runs on three hits, two walks, and five strikeouts. Therefore, I expect his pitch count to be high enough to factor in the decision.
The young southpaw started the 2021 season in the bullpen but broke out after he moved into the rotation. In 14 starts totaling 79.2 innings, he had a 3.39 ERA, 3.98 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 26.1 K%, and 31.0 CSW%. Unfortunately, the Marlins aren't a complete pushover. Regardless, as you can see on their FanGraphs leaderboard page against lefties since 2019, they strike out at a high clip. As a result, I like Sandoval's odds of delivering value via punchouts tonight.
GPP Recommendations:
Luis Garcia (HOU) at ARI
If I had more confidence in Garcia getting cut loose tonight, I would have included him above as a cash game recommendation. However, he threw just 35 pitches in his spring debut in late March, and he pitched only 3.2 scoreless one-hit, zero walks, six-strikeout innings in his final spring training turn.
The sharp showing in his last time on the bump was encouraging. A soft matchup with the Diamondbacks awards him a chance for a short but excellent start. If you like enough value hitters or love a value stack, Garcia's an intriguing GPP option.
Jesus Luzardo (MIA) at LAA
Luzardo was a popular fantasy baseball option entering 2021. Sadly, he struggled mightily. Still, he's only 24-years old and armed with an electrifying arsenal. According to FanGraphs, despite his struggles in 2021, he had a 16.9 SwStr% and 21.4 SwStr% on his changeup and slider, respectively.
Luzardo enters the 2022 season on the heels of a lights-out spring training, twirling a 0.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and striking out 10 batters in 11.2 innings. Additionally, he tossed 61 pitches in his penultimate spring training start before pitching 4.2 innings in his last spring start, potentially setting the stage for 80-plus pitches tonight.
The Angels present a challenge to Luzardo, and Betting Pros' consensus for total runs (9.5) and Angels -163 speaks to the tricky matchup. Still, Luzardo's bat-missing arsenal and sterling spring results make him a worthy volatile pick in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Target Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAD -145
The game total and moneyline numbers above tell the story. The Dodgers are projected to do damage tonight against Chris Archer and the Twins. The veteran righty hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2015, and he hasn't recorded one lower than 4.30 since 2017. In addition, he's allowed 1.88 HR/9 and 1.40 HR/9, his highest and second-highest marks in his career, in his previous two healthy campaigns (2019 and 2021). The vaunted Dodgers lineup can pulverize anyone, namely a mediocre to a below-average starter like Archer.
- Home (Target Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/MIN +125
The Twins didn't quite live up to my lofty expectations last night. Nonetheless, they scored four runs on 10 hits and three walks, leaving tons of meat on the bone. I'll go back to the well against career ERA estimator-underachiever Andrew Heaney.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -155
The best thing I can say about Patrick Corbin's 2022 debut was it wasn't an utter disaster. Still, he navigated lots of traffic, allowing five hits and issuing two walks in four-plus innings against the Mets. The veteran lefty has been terrible in back-to-back seasons. So, a mediocre opener isn't enough to dissuade me from stacking against him with Atlanta's power-packed lineup.
- Byron Buxton didn't homer yesterday after hitting three in his previous two games. Yet, gamers who rostered him yesterday weren't upset with a pair of doubles, two runs, a walk, and a stolen base. The toolsy outfielder is ripping the cover off the ball to open the year and has terrorized southpaws in recent years.
- Switch-hitting Ozzie Albies is another hitter who has roughed up lefties as if they owe him money. Since 2019, he has had a .369 OBP, .257 ISO, and 149 wRC+ against them.
- Freddie Freeman slots in the two-hole in the Dodgers' loaded lineup, and he's masterfully torched righties to the tune of a .427 OBP, .264 ISO, and 160 wRC+ since 2019.
- Marcell Ozuna is precisely the type of power hitter I want to go after Corbin with. He has had a .298 ISO against lefties since 2019.
- This year, Gio Urshela hit cleanup in Minnesota's only game against a lefty. I won't look a gift horse in the mouth when a cleanup hitter in a potent lineup is priced as cheap as Urshela is, namely at DraftKings.
- Gary Sanchez is the epitome of a three-true-outcomes modern hitter against lefties. He also epitomizes the homer-chasing cheap catcher archetype I love to use on DraftKings.
- Miguel Sano is a FanDuel-centric suggestion, priced at only $200 above their minimum salary. The big-bodied slugger's .218 ISO and 112 wRC+ against southpaws since 2019 are tons of bang for your buck at nearly the minimum salary.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
I'm chasing taters tonight in good matchups with hitters from the Dodgers, Twins, and Braves. Typically, I love to blend two complete stacks on FanDuel and a full or near-full stack and another smaller stack on DraftKings in GPPs. However, I'm leaning toward smaller stacks tonight, using hitters from all three teams. As a result, I'm building lineups including Buxton, Albies, Freeman, the values/punts above, and others such as Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, and Carlos Correa that fit GPPs and cash games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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