Opening Day has differing slate sizes and start times between FanDuel and DraftKings. FanDuel’s main slate features seven games and begins at 2:20 pm ET. Meanwhile, DraftKings’ main slate includes six games and starts at 4:10 pm ET.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
My favorite stacks for Opening Day are relatively affordable. As a result, I'm spending top dollar for pitching in all game types and on most of my rosters. Moreover, the top pitchers aren't outrageously priced anyway.
Opening Day has differing slate sizes and start times between FanDuel and DraftKings. FanDuel’s main slate features seven games and begins at 2:20 pm ET. Meanwhile, DraftKings’ main slate includes six games and starts at 4:10 pm ET.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
My favorite stacks for Opening Day are relatively affordable. As a result, I'm spending top dollar for pitching in all game types and on most of my rosters. Moreover, the top pitchers aren't outrageously priced anyway.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at CHC
Corbin Burnes is only available on FanDuel's slate, as the Brewers play before the 4:10 pm ET start time for DraftKings' main slate. However, he's my co-favorite with the next pitcher for the cash game pitcher on FanDuel's single-pitcher platform. The Cubs' lineup has a bunch of hitters with swing-and-miss issues, and the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner is armed with the arsenal to exploit Chicago's propensity to punch out. According to FanGraphs, Burnes had a 35.6 K% and 33.8 CSW% last season. Milwaukee's ace has a floor and ceiling combo that's tailor-made for all game types.
Yu Darvish (SD) at ARI
If you're looking to squeeze an extra bopper into your FanDuel lineup, spinning down to Yu Darvish is a good move in cash games. He's also my second-favorite cash games arm on DraftKings, salary considered. Unfortunately, Darvish had an underwhelming 4.22 ERA in 2021. Still, he had much better ERA estimators. Further, in 42 starts spanning 242.1 innings since 2020, Darvish has had a 3.53 ERA, 3.38 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, and 31.3 CSW%. Finally, the matchup is favorable against Arizona's toothless rebuilding lineup.
Shane Bieber (CLE) at KC
Shane Bieber's 2021 season was unfortunately interrupted by an injury. Yet, when he toed the slab, he was great. In 96.2 innings, Bieber had a 3.17 ERA, 3.76 xERA, 3.21 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 33.1 K%, and 33.5 CSW%. Bieber's salary on FanDuel is befitting an ace, but he's underpriced on DraftKings. Further, Kanas City's lineup has some intriguing pieces, but it's not overly imposing as a whole. Thus, at Bieber's bargain price on DraftKings, he's my favorite cash game pitcher with a high enough ceiling to warrant GPP usage as well. Also, a Darvish and Bieber pairing isn't too crippling to your salary cap to prevent you from fleshing out a strong cash game lineup.
GPP Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. HOU
First, I'm not a fan of using Shohei Ohtani at his salary on FanDuel in any game type. However, his upside to smash value at his $7,000 salary on DraftKings is enticing for GPP usage, despite a tricky matchup against the Astros. Ohtani had his best season on the bump in his historic American League MVP campaign, twirling a 3.18 ERA, 3.35 xERA, 3.61 SIERA, 1.09 WHIP, 29.3 K%, and 28.7 CSW%. Ohtani's "A" game is capable of tying up Houston's lineup and pilling up fantasy points in bunches. Nevertheless, I'm still interested in Ohtani in only GPPs.
Madison Bumgarner (ARI) vs. SD
Spoiler alert, the Padres are one of the three stacks included below. Regardless, San Diego's offense is top-heavy, making Madison Bumgarner an intriguing GPP swerve at a bargain salary. The veteran lefty isn't the elite starter he once was. However, after a brutal first three starts in 2021, he settled in for a 4.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 20.2 K% in his last 23 starts spanning 132.2 innings. Sadly, his ERA estimators weren't as good as his ERA, but Bumgarner routinely beat them during his peak. Finally, I'm intrigued by his modest velocity uptick in the spring and his scouting grades from Cameron Grove.
The bar is very low for MadBum to clear to produce value at DraftKings and FanDuel. I'm more inclined to use him on DraftKings' two-pitcher platform, but using him opens up enough salary to load up on boppers on both daily fantasy providers.
Top Lineup Stacks
I expect the Mets to be the chalkiest stack on the slate. However, why shouldn't they be? Patrick Corbin was awful last year. In addition, he's pitched terribly since 2020. In 42 starts since 2020, he has had a 5.50 ERA and 4.45 SIERA, coughing up a whopping 1.78 HR/9. As a result, Corbin's arguably the weakest link among today's probable pitchers.
- Home (Nationals Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/WSH +112
Admittedly, the bottom of Washington's lineup is atrocious. Still, I'm fixated on the lefties and switch-hitters in the top-five spots in the order. Tylor Megill is the Opening Day starter for the Mets, and he was an unmitigated disaster against left-handed hitters as a rookie last year. Megill was tattooed for a .383 OBP, .612 SLG, and .418 wOBA by the 184 left-handed batters he faced. I won't dissuade you from using Nelson Cruz, but the lefties are where this stack's bread is buttered.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/SD -162
I spoiled San Diego's appearance in this section above. Maybe MadBum was lucky last year, and he's no longer capable of beating his ERA estimators. Regardless, the veteran lefty wasn't sharp against right-handed hitters last year anyway. Bumgarner yielded a .323 wOBA to righties in 2021. The Friars have plenty of righties to attack Bumgarner.
- Juan Soto is the stud of studs on today's slate. As I noted above, Megill was a train wreck against lefties. Even if he sharpens up against them this year, Soto's an entirely different beast than an average lefty.
- Manny Machado is my favorite piece of exposure to San Diego's lineup. He has had a .387 OBP, .268 ISO, and 148 wRC+ against southpaws since 2019.
- Pete Alonso is another power source in his cushy matchup with Corbin. The first baseman has a gaudy .316 ISO and 35 homers in 454 plate appearances against lefties in his career.
- I think Franmil Reyes might slip through the cracks on today's slate, making him a tantalizing GPP pick. The power-hitting outfielder has had a .250 ISO and 122 wRC+ in 507 plate appearances against righties since 2020. Additionally, Zack Greinke was rocked for a .505 SLG and .351 wOBA in same-handed matchups last season.
- Wil Myers is nearly the 1B to Machado's 1A. Myers' power is what I'm drawn to, boasting a .246 ISO in 314 plate appearances versus lefties since 2019.
- I prioritize using Machado at the hot corner on DraftKings. Still, I'll mix in some J.D. Davis, namely on rosters where I use Bumgarner. Davis's outfield eligibility and the utility spot at FanDuel are both avenues for using him as a punt with Machado there. He's been a well-above-average hitter against lefties. So, Davis is a nifty bargain even though he carries a significant risk of being removed from the game early for a reserve.
- Nick Senzel's salary is nearly the minimum on both daily fantasy platforms. Sadly, injuries have stunted his development and transition from raking in the minors to doing the same in the majors. Nevertheless, I'm not yet ready to write off the 26-year-old hitter with a lengthy track record of success at the dish in the minors. Finally, he's crushed the ball in the spring. So, maybe he'll continue chugging along out of the gate.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
I'm paying for pitching. Thus, I'm dialing in on only a few studs such as Soto, Machado, Alonso, and Franimal and complementing them with a host of bargain hitters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
