Thursday’s main slate is a matinee special, starting at 12:35 pm ET. However, it differs in size between DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings’ main slate is nine games, concluding with the 2:10 pm ET American League Central clash between the Royals and White Sox. However, FanDuel’s main slate includes a tenth contest, the 3:07 pm ET American League East battle between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top trio of hurlers is tightly clustered. The salary differences prompted the safest pitcher to slide to third on the table above. Meanwhile, an ace rounds out the options as a high-ceiling GPP pick.
Thursday’s main slate is a matinee special, starting at 12:35 pm ET. However, it differs in size between DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings’ main slate is nine games, concluding with the 2:10 pm ET American League Central clash between the Royals and White Sox. However, FanDuel’s main slate includes a tenth contest, the 3:07 pm ET American League East battle between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top trio of hurlers is tightly clustered. The salary differences prompted the safest pitcher to slide to third on the table above. Meanwhile, an ace rounds out the options as a high-ceiling GPP pick.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Michael Kopech (CWS) vs. KC
Kopech doesn't offer as much value as the others. However, he's likely the safest pick. According to FanGraphs, in three starts spanning 14.0 innings, he's had a 0.64 ERA, 2.11 xERA, 3.43 SIERA, 0.79 WHIP, 29.4 K%, and 27.8 CSW%.
Beyond Kopech's sterling numbers, I love his matchup today. The Royals are tied for 21st in wRC+ (86) against righties. In addition, Kansas City's hitters on their active roster have been pathetic against righties since 2019. Therefore, it makes sense Betting Pros lists the White Sox as -170 favorites and the game's total at a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs. As a result, paying up for Kopech makes sense in cash games. Chicago's righty also has a GPP-friendly ceiling.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) at WSH
Rogers had an up-and-down first start, a disastrous second start, and a brilliant but abbreviated third turn to open his 2022 campaign. In his most recent start, the lefty held the Braves to one unearned run on four hits, two walks, and four strikeouts in five innings.
I'm most encouraged by his 39.3 O-Swing% and 16.8 SwStr% against the Braves. The matchup is favorable for him, building on his best start of the young season. This year, the Nationals are 27th in wRC+ (66) and dead last in ISO (.067) against southpaws. Further, Nelson Cruz and Juan Soto have been the only hitters with more than 150 plate appearances against lefties since 2019 with a wRC+ above 105. Finally, the Marlins are -158 favorites, and the game's over/under is a non-threatening 8.0 runs, making Rogers an excellent SP2 at DraftKings in all game types.
GPP Recommendations:
Freddy Peralta (MIL) at PIT
Peralta has the best blend of value and ceiling today. He was sharp last time he got the ball, holding the Phillies to one run on three hits, two walks, and six strikeouts. Unfortunately, Peralta threw a first-pitch strike at just a 40.0% clip. However, he also had his highest Zone% in three starts. So, his control might be coming around. Nevertheless, his strike-throwing leaves enough to be desired to make him a riskier pick than Kopech.
Still, he has had a 28.1 K%. Additionally, he has a mouthwatering matchup against the Buccos. The Pirates are 19th in wRC+ (89) against righties in 2022. However, I'm excited about their sky-high 26.3 K%. Finally, their active roster is filled with players with underwhelming numbers against righties. The sky is the limit for Peralta today.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. COL
Rolling with Wheeler requires a leap of faith. He's allowed 11 runs in only eight innings across his previous two starts. In addition, his velocity has been down from last year out of the chute.
Thankfully, his average velocity was the highest this year in his last start. Since the Phillies entered the year expecting Wheeler to take a bit to build up, I'm optimistic that Wheeler's last start is a sign of better things to come. The 31-year-old righty had a 2.78 ERA and 29.1 K%, with the underlying stats to support it in 2021. Thus, I'm happy to fire a few bullets on Wheeler in GPPs if that guy shows up today.
Top Lineup Stacks
Bruce Zimmermann has been sharp as a tack through three starts this year. Nevertheless, he was a punching bag last year with up-and-down numbers in the upper minors throughout his professional career. So, I'm putting more weight behind his larger body of work than 15 stellar innings in 2022.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/MIA -158
Patrick Corbin is toast. Last night, Miami's offense squandered a golden opportunity, scratching across just two runs. Regardless, I'll go back to the well against a hurler whose ERA has climbed from 4.66 in 2020 to 5.82 in 2021 and 11.20 this season.
- Even after last night's 0-4 performance, Buxton has a .489 ISO, .347 OBP, 228 wRC+, six homers, and one stolen base this year. Thankfully, it's not difficult to find salary-cap space for him tonight, making him an easy pick.
- Aaron Judge has had a .365 OBP, .258 ISO, and 171 wRC+ in 75 plate appearances this year. The slugging outfielder has also terrorized lefties in his career, recording a .416 OBP, .291 ISO, and 163 wRC+ in 672 plate appearances.
- Josh Donaldson might be in the twilight of his career, but he's still smashing the ball. He has also maintained his excellence against lefties, posting a .362 OBP, .292 ISO, and 142 wRC+ against them since last season.
- I love Gary Sanchez's power with the platoon advantage if he returns to the lineup today. His power pairs perfectly with Tarik Skubal's .489 SLG surrendered to 569 righties since last year.
- Corbin has coughed up a .557 SLG to righties since 2021. Obviously, I want to attack him with top-shelf power as Jorge Soler possesses.
- Giancarlo Stanton reached the seats last night, and his batted-ball data tells a better tale about his season than his 85 wRC+. Of course, these things often have a way of working themselves out. So, I'll trust Stanton's missiles to produce better results.
- It's hard for me to believe, but Miguel Rojas has had a 137 wRC+against lefties since 2021. Further, while I don't put much stock in batter-versus-pitcher stats, Rojas's dominance of Corbin is a cherry on top of his case for usage as a punt.
- Gio Urshela is a great pivot from Donaldson if you need some salary relief. The veteran has had a 120 wRC+ against lefties since 2019, which belies his small salary.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
I would typically discuss three stacks on a slate of today's size. However, I'm only entirely interested in the Bronx Bombers and Marlins. Still, Buxton and Urshela are a pair of players that aren't on either the Yankees or Marlins that I'll have in a handful of my lineups. Otherwise, I'm putting most of my eggs in New York's and Miami's baskets today.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
