The Thursday main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel begin at 1:10 pm ET. However, DraftKings tacks the 4:05 pm ET Diamondbacks at the Nationals game on the slate to make it a seven-gamer. FanDuel doesn’t include the 4:05 pm ET game, making their main slate only a six-gamer.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching landscape is bleak in the bargain bin. Even at the top of the heap, each pitcher carries a risk, whether because of the opponent or the ballpark. Nevertheless, this afternoon, I can't stomach dipping into the risky cheap arms.
The Thursday main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel begin at 1:10 pm ET. However, DraftKings tacks the 4:05 pm ET Diamondbacks at the Nationals game on the slate to make it a seven-gamer. FanDuel doesn’t include the 4:05 pm ET game, making their main slate only a six-gamer.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching landscape is bleak in the bargain bin. Even at the top of the heap, each pitcher carries a risk, whether because of the opponent or the ballpark. Nevertheless, this afternoon, I can't stomach dipping into the risky cheap arms.
Check out all of the day's probable starting pitchers
Cash Game Recommendations:
Carlos Carrasco (NYM) vs. SF
The Giants are a pesky offense. According to FanGraphs, they have a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2022. However, their .169 ISO is non-threatening, and Carrasco gets the ball at his pitcher-friendly home digs. According to our MLB park factors, Citi Field has the third-lowest park factor for runs (0.881).
Carrasco has been lights out to start his 2022 campaign. He has had a 0.84 ERA, 2.91 xERA, 2.27 SIERA, 0.66 WHIP, 5.1 BB%, 33.3 K%, and 31.0 CSW%. It's a fabulous rebound from an injury-marred first year with the Mets. Finally, Betting Pros lists the Mets as -130 favorites and the game's total at a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs. Thus, I feel confident in tabbing Carrasco as the highest-floor option, making him my favorite cash-game pitcher this afternoon.
Joe Ryan (MIN) at KC
Ryan has a tasty matchup, no matter how you slice it. First, the Royals have a paltry 86 wRC+ against righties in the early going. Second, Kansas City's hitters haven't fared well against righties in recent years.
Meanwhile, Ryan pitched well in his first two starts after a cup of coffee in the majors last year. The young righty has had a 3.68 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA, 0.87 WHIP, 29.1 K%, and 29.8 CSW% in seven starts spanning 36.2 innings. So, I don't expect the Royals to provide much resistance. Thankfully, the oddsmakers and bettors agree, with the Twins a -120 favorite, and the game's over/under at 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) at BOS
Gausman is a pinch riskier than Carrasco and Ryan, hence his inclusion as a GPP recommendation. Fenway Park is the second-highest scoring venue, and the game's over/under of 9.0 runs is higher than Carrasco's and Ryan's contests. However, Gausman and the Blue Jays are -120 favorites.
Gausman's 4.22 ERA and 4.11 xERA haven't been anything to write home about through two starts. However, he's been killed by a .452 BABIP and 64.3 LOB%. Otherwise, his 0.0 BB%, 31.1 K%, 2.01 SIERA, 58.3 O-Swing%, 22.1 SwStr%, and 35.0 CSW% have been sterling.
In addition, Boston has stumbled to an 85 wRC+ against righties, and they could be without J.D. Martinez after he exited yesterday's game early. The Red Sox have a few challenges in their offense for Gausman, but it's a less formidable foe if Martinez is watching from the dugout. Therefore, I love chasing Gausman's sky-high ceiling in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Get all of our projected lineups for today
The Twins burned me last night, recording a bagel. However, they have a possible get-right matchup against Zack Greinke tonight. In recent years, the 38-year-old pitcher has gotten by with smarts, location, and pitch sequencing. However, his underlying numbers through two starts indicate he might be reaching the finish line, despite a 2.45 ERA suggesting the contrary. Greinke has struck out only one of 43 batters faced. Pitching to contact at that extreme of a level is playing with fire.
- Road (Comerica Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/NYY -175
The Yankees oppose a familiar face tonight, squaring off with former Yankee Michael Pineda. Work visa issues delayed the veteran righty's preparation for the season. As a result, he started the regular season at Triple-A to get stretched out. Pineda wasn't impressive, though. He had a 5.68 ERA, 6.04 xFIP, and 1.42 HR/9 innings. In addition, he coughed up 1.40 HR/9 in 2021, and his 3.62 ERA overstated his performance with the Twins. I'm optimistic about the Bronx Bombers' odds of beating Pineda like a pinata in his first start in the bigs this year.
- Anthony Rizzo is locked in. He clubbed his fourth homer of the year and stole his second base last night. Rizzo is sporting a .412 OBP, .359 ISO, and 192 wRC+ through 51 plate appearances.
- Carlos Correa has the chops to punish Greinke's pitch-to-contact approach, owning a .227 ISO against righties since 2019.
- The Nationals got spanked last night, but Juan Soto was his usual brilliant self, reaching base with a single, double, and walk. He has a .452 OBP, .234 ISO, and 179 wRC+ this year. Further, since 2019, he has had a .467 OBP, .281 ISO, and 175 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
- Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco has excelled against righties, amassing a .346 OBP, .203 ISO, and 121 wRC+ since 2019.
- Anthony Santander is another switch-hitter that has above-average marks against righties. Namely, since 2019, he has had a .235 ISO and 107 wRC+.
- Luis Arraez will continue to appear in this section as long as he's underpriced against average or worse righties. The left-handed hitter has had a .383 OBP and 125 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.
- Brandon Nimmo is a value at under $4,000 on DraftKings. New York's leadoff hitter has had a .432 OBP, .290 ISO, 203 wRC+, and elite batted-ball data in 2022.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
I don't love stacking any offense in cash games today. As a result, I've labeled the Twins and Yankees as GPP stacks. Still, I love a few of their players across all game types. I'm chiefly hunting for bargains around the top pitchers and the studs on the core studs table
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.