MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (4/30)

It’s been a great start to the fantasy season, but it was sad to see Adalberto Mondesi go down with a torn ACL. He was diagnosed with that injury the same day Ronald Acuna returned from his ACL injury, which tells how crazy this sport can be. The injuries will keep flowing the deeper we get into the season, and that’s my least favorite part of this gig. As someone who’s 10 months removed from ACL surgery, it’s amazing the sort of grind these athletes put their bodies through. What we talk about here is very important, but I want to make sure we’re not belittling these players’ health because that’s always a major theme in my articles.

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

We have a fantastic pitcher pool for today’s slate. It was tough to pick just four, but we wanted to limit the picks based on who the best values are. Some other pitchers that we like include Shane McClanahan, Clayton Kershaw, Sean Manaea, and Gerrit Cole. That leaves us with one of the deeper pitcher pools all year, and it’s going to be tough to pick the right ones. Any combination of those eight guys will probably work because we only anticipate one or two of them dudding out. With that in mind, let’s kick things off with the safest ones of the bunch!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Shane Bieber (CLE) at OAK

Not enough people realize how special this guy has been over the last four years. The stud righty has a 2.91 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in that span, striking out 537 batters across 410 innings. That’s an amazing run of consistency, with Bieber posting a 2.82 ERA and 0.90 WHIP so far this season. The main reason we love him today is this matchup with Oakland. This team ranks 19th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, and 25th in OPS this season. They might be worse than those numbers indicate, failing to send out any recognizable players in that rebuilding lineup. All of that has Bieber entering this matchup as a -170 favorite with Oakland projected for just three runs.

Robbie Ray (SEA) at MIA

Ray was a shock choice for Cy Young last season, but he earned it with his 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That earned him a contract in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, and it should put him in line for an All-Star year. The strikeouts are what make him most dangerous, whiffing 248 batters across 193 innings. He hasn’t quite gotten back to that this year but he’s scored at least 31 FanDuel points in three of four games. Facing Miami is a good way to add to that, with the Marlins ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OPS, and xwOBA last season. The oddsmakers agree, making Ray a -120 favorite in a game with a 7.5-run total.

GPP Recommendations:

Logan Webb (SF) vs. WAS

Webb was the best pitcher in the NL for the final three months of last season, and he’s carried that form into this year. Logan has a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first four starts of this season, scoring at least 28 FD points in three of four starts. The one dud is the only thing holding him back from absurd averages, but facing Washington should lower them even more. The Nationals rank 24th in runs scored and 27th in OPS. We also don’t mind that Webb enters this matchup as a -250 favorite, with the Nats projected for just 3,5 runs.

Eric Lauer (MIL) vs. CHC

Lauer has been one of the sneakiest pitchers in baseball. The lefty is generating a 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, striking out 23 batters across 16.1 innings. You might be surprised to see this, but Lauer had a 3.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP last season. All of that makes him a heck of a value in this price range, but the matchup with Chicago is the icing on the cake. The Cubs numbers are pretty good, but the eye test tells us that this is one of the worst lineups around. Vegas sees it that way, with Chicago projected for 3.5 runs in a game with Lauer as a -170 favorite.

Top Lineup Stacks

Colorado Rockies (vs. TBD)

• Home (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/COL -130

Using the Rockies in Coors Field is about as easy as it gets. This team always has a run total north of five, which is undoubtedly the case here. This is always a Top-10 offense in their home ballpark, with Coors Field surrendering the most runs year after year. That’s rough news for Cincinnati since they lost Nick Lodolo to the IL. That means the Reds will go with a bullpen day or call up Randy Wynne. The bullpen day would be a disaster in Coors, and Wynne’s 0-4 record and 4.87 ERA at Triple-A doesn’t have us scare at all.

New York Yankees (vs. Carlos Hernandez)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/NYY -200

We all know that the Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball, sitting first in xwOBA. They send out mashers like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Joey Gallo as some of the best DFS options night after night. That puts them in line against anyone, but Hernandez is one of the best matchups right now. The Royals righty has a 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season, accruing a 1.41 WHIP for his career. The Bronx Bombers are also projected for 4.5 runs in this spot, but that feels short with so much in their favor.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Spenser Watkins)

• Road (Camden Yards)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/BOS -150

Stacking offenses against Baltimore is profitable. This has been the worst pitching staff in baseball for nearly a decade, and Watkins is another one of those gas cans. The righty has thrown 67.2 innings at this level, totaling a 7.05 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Those horrific averages make him terrifying against Boston, with the Red Sox posting one of the best lineups around. In his one start against them last year, Watkins allowed six runs across four disastrous innings.

Core Studs

• Abreu has gotten off to a rough start this season, but this is a brilliant spot for him. The slugging first baseman is flirting with a .600 SLG and 1.000 OPS against lefties over the last three years and gets to face a crappy one here. Jose Suarez is toeing the runner for the Angels, amassing a 5.69 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for his career.
• If we like the BoSox, we have to love their best hitter. That’s Devers, with the lefty providing a .352 OBP, .538 SLG, and .890 OPS last season. His splits have always been much better against righties, too, and we already talked about how bad Watkins can be.
• Muncy has developed into one of the best OBP guys in the league, and he’s starting to get hot. The slugging utility man has a .423 OBP and .844 OPS over his last six games, and he always performs better against righties. The Motor City Kitties are sending out a rough right-hander here, with Beau Brieske making his second career start.
• If the Yankees are one of the best stacks, Judge is an easy play. We’re talking about a guy with a .385 OBP, .564 SLG, and .953 OPS since 2017. That’s a long stretch of success, and it’s almost identical to his numbers to start this year. All of that is terrible news for Hernandez and is horrendous numbers.

Value Plays/Punts

• Reyes is another struggling bat, but he’s another guy that’s going to get going. He’s one of the league leaders in hard-hit rate since he debuted and has always done better against southpaws. This is not a scary southpaw either, with Cole Irvin collecting a 4.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for his career.
• Hosmer has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. He’s got a .415 AVG, .600 SLG, and 1.072 OPS for the year. Those are shocking numbers, but it makes him tough to avoid with how hot his bat is right now. JT Brubaker is a pitcher he can keep that going against, with Hosmer posting much better splits against right-handed pitching.
• Gallo has one of the best ISOs and SLG since his call-up, and he’s going to be one of the league leaders in homers as well. He put up a fat donut through the first two weeks but two dingers this week have him ready to keep rolling. He’s also one of the only lefty bats on this roster, and he remains way too cheap with his home run upside.
• Renfroe is a very similar player to Gallo. He is also one of the most powerful men in our game, flirting with a .500 SLG and .900 OPS against lefties for his career. Justin Steele is not the sort of guy who will stop that either, with the southpaw slinging a 1.73 WHIP this season.
• Don’t look now, but Blackmon is starting to roll. Chuck Nazty has a 1.062 OPS over his last 11 games and regularly posts 1.000 OPS in Coors Field. That means he’s a bit too cheap with the recent price drop, especially with the Rockies being one of the highest-projected offenses on the slate.

Sunday’s Hitter Strategy

We discussed how many good pitchers there are, and it will have us leaning on cheap hitting. We feel like we have a good player pool of those guys because you will need a combination of those eight expansive pitchers to build around. Some of the lineups that might have some value include the Reds, Brewers, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Rays. Those teams should pair wonderfully with the Rockies, Yankees, and Red Sox.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.