MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (4/23)

We’re back in the groove now. It finally feels like we’re in the everyday grind that baseball dishes out, and it’s one of my favorite things about this sport. Evaluating the numbers and matching players up is the most fascinating aspect of baseball, and it has me excited to dive into it every single day! We have every team in action for this Saturday card, so let’s go ahead and get started with the pitching!

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

This could be a fascinating slate from a pitching perspective. We really don’t have many aces, but we have numerous guys who are right on the brink. We have a bunch of those who are our primary write-ups but didn’t even include talented pitchers like Yu Darvish, Alek Manoah, and Zach Wheeler. Any one of those guys could be a great play, too, but these four are much better values!

Check out all of the day’s probable starting pitchers

Cash Game Recommendations:

Noah Syndergaard (LAA) vs. BAL

Syndergaard was regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball just a few years back, but injuries have derailed his career. With that said, he appears to have recaptured some of that, providing a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through his first two starts of this season. We don’t expect him to maintain miraculous numbers like those, but it makes him tough to fade nonetheless. Facing Baltimore is brilliant, too, with the Orioles ranked 28th in OPS and dead-last in runs scored. That has Thor entering this matchup as a -250 favorite, with the O’s projected for just 3.5 runs.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs. PIT

Hendricks is not an exciting pitcher, but this guy gets it done. We’re talking about a pitcher with a 3.39 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine years in the majors. That’s a lengthy run of dominance, and it should continue against the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s putrid offense ranked dead-last in wOBA and runs scored last season, and could be even worse this year. The oddsmakers agree, making Hendricks a -180 favorite in this sensational spot.

GPP Recommendations:

Ian Anderson (ATL) vs. MIA

Using pitchers against Miami has been a godsend for years. This Marlins offense was bottom-three in runs scored, OPS, and xwOBA last season. That puts any opposing pitcher in play against them, particularly a top prospect like this. Anderson has a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 169 career innings and enters this matchup as a -190 favorite.

Alex Wood (SF) at WAS

None of the Washington statistics from last season will make this look like a good matchup, but the bottom half of this order is one of the worst in the league. That means Wood just has to navigate the top four, and he’ll surely do that when looking at his recent form. Wood has a 1.93 ERA through his first two starts of this season and is pitching to a 3.48 ERA and 1.23 WHIP for his career. That’s a long run of success, making it hard to understand why he’s so affordable in such a tasty matchup.

Top Lineup Stacks

New York Mets (vs. Humberto Castellanos)

• Road (Chase Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/NYM -130

The Mets have made many moves over the last two seasons, but this offense is finally coming together. Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Fransisco Lindor are feasting as the primary pieces of it, but ancillary players like Eduardo Escobar, Robinson Cano, Domonic Smith, Mark Canha, and Jeff McNeil make it extremely dangerous. All of those should have success against a guy like Castellanos, with the Arizona arm attaining a 4.99 ERA at Triple-A last season and a 4.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in three years at the majors.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Dakota Hudson)

• Home (Great American)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/STL -110

Stacking against Hudson is a profitable endeavor. The Cardinals righty is holding onto a spot in this rotation spot by a thread, pitching to a 7.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this season. That’s not far off of his 1.32 career WHIP, making him an intriguing target against a talented Reds lineup. They’ve struggled to get going, but there are too many gifted pieces on this roster to continue their poor hitting ways.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Kris Bubic)

• Home (T-Mobile Park)
• Value: High
• Risk: High
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/SEA -150

This is the sneaky stack of the day. Many people don’t think Seattle’s lineup is dangerous, but they’re pretty deep 1-9. What also makes them enticing is the fact that many of these guys are cheap. That makes them tough to fade against a pitcher like Bubic, with the Royals lefty posting a 10.60 ERA and 2.60 WHIP this season. That’s a small sample size, but a 1.44 career WHIP is nothing to write home about either.

Core Studs

• Lindor had a down 2021 season, but it’s clear he’s back to his All-Star ways. The slugging shortstop is leading all regulars with 11.8 DraftKings points per game. He’s been doing most of that damage recently, scoring at least 5.0 DK points in all but one game this season. That should be easy to duplicate against a pitcher like Castellanos.
• Walsh has been crushing righties for a while now. Since 2020, Walsh has a .326 AVG, .394 OBP, .603 SLG, and .997 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That makes him one of the safest plays out there, and we’re certainly not worried about him facing one of these terrible Baltimore pitchers.
• This FanDuel price for Ketel is laughable. This guy is flirting with a .900 OPS over the last four years and should never be $2,700 on either site. We love that since he gets to face a subpar righty, with Trevor Williams tallying a 1.47 WHIP since 2019.
• Machado might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He’s averaging 11.5 DK points per game for the season and has provided a 1.051 OPS through the first three weeks of the year. That’s rough for Tyler Anderson because Manny has been flirting with a 1.000 OPS against lefties for the past five years.
• France has been sneaky for the Mariners, and he’s one of the best plays in this brilliant matchup. We already talked about how Bubic has some of the worst numbers in baseball, but it also gives France the platoon advantage from the right side. He has a .571 SLG and 1.002 OPS this season while generating similar averages against left-handed pitching.

Value Plays/Punts

• Votto has been terrible this season, but he’s our favorite play in a Cincy stack. This guy is always a safe bet to post an OBP north of .350, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets there when facing subpar righties like Hudson.
• Smith has always been a stud when facing right-handers. The big man has a .200 ISO against righties throughout his career and has gone on stretches where he looks like one of the best bats in baseball. If that earns him a prominent spot in this elite Mets stack, he’s one of the best values out there.
• Pederson is another platoon player that goes off when facing righties. The former Dodger always bats third, fourth or fifth against righties and crushed them. In nearly 2,200 at-bats against right-handers, Joc has a .341 OBP, .492 SLG, .833 OPS, and .254 ISO with the platoon advantage in his favor.
• Suarez has seen his average plummet over the last few years, but he can still smash the baseball. This guy has over 200 home runs since 2016, ranking Top-10 in baseball in SLG, ISO, and homers in that span. That’s awesome since he faces a crappy lefty here, with Suarez posting better splits against southpaws.
• Muncy is just too cheap. This guy is usually $1,000 on each site and can get rolling at any time. Friday looked like the start of it, homering and getting on base four times! That’s the OBP and power stud we’re used to seeing, and Yu Darvish definitely has the capability of getting blown up with a nine-run dud in his pocket just last week.

Sunday’s Hitter Strategy

As you can see, there’s going to be a ton of value when discussing bats. Most of the pitchers we like are in the $9K range but you can stack them anyway you like. Our favorite value stack are the Mariners because you can use whoever you want from this lineup. You shouldn’t forget about teams like the Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, Braves, and Angels though,

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.