The Monday daily fantasy baseball main slate starts at 7:05 pm ET. There are nine games on the main slate. Monday’s contests include a game at Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw taking the bump after spinning seven perfect innings in his first start of the year.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Kershaw was truly perfect in his first start of the year. Nevertheless, I'm fading him at his salary against the Braves. Atlanta's offense is filled with hitters with a track record of success against southpaws. So instead, I prefer to save some money by spinning down to the options on the table above.
The Monday daily fantasy baseball main slate starts at 7:05 pm ET. There are nine games on the main slate. Monday’s contests include a game at Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw taking the bump after spinning seven perfect innings in his first start of the year.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Kershaw was truly perfect in his first start of the year. Nevertheless, I'm fading him at his salary against the Braves. Atlanta's offense is filled with hitters with a track record of success against southpaws. So instead, I prefer to save some money by spinning down to the options on the table above.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shane McClanahan (TB) at CHC
McClanahan should be close to completely stretched out, throwing 68 pitches in his first start and 85 in his second. The 24-year-old lefty is an elite strikeout artist. According to FanGraphs, he has had a 28.1 K% in 132.1 innings since debuting last year. McClanahan has also earned a top-shelf 32.0 CSW%.
Thankfully, Chicago's offense has multiple high-strikeout hitters against lefties. Therefore, I expect McClanahan to pile up strikeouts in bunches tonight. In addition, according to Betting Pros, the Rays are -150 favorites. The betting line coupled with McClanahan's strikeout upside makes him my top pitcher tonight. Also, while he's listed as a cash game recommendation, I love him in GPPs too.
Alex Cobb (SF) at NYM
Cobb is a small underdog (+105) in the best pitching matchup on the main slate, evidenced by the game's over/under (6.5 runs). The veteran righty carried his celebrated spring training velocity gain to the regular season, averaging a new career-high 94.6 mph on the pitch, up 1.8 mph from last year's then-career-high mark (92.8 mph).
Cobb also used his bat-missing splitter at a 43.4% clip. The newfound velocity and high splitter usage helped Cobb record 10 strikeouts in five innings against the Padres. Tonight, he toes the slab at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. According to our park factors, Citi Field has the third-lowest park factor for runs (0.881). Finally, I'm excited about Cobb's outlook tonight because of New York's offense's ho-hum results against splitters. So, Cobb is an excellent value option on DraftKings and a rock-solid option at a reasonable salary on FanDuel.
GPP Recommendations:
Tylor Megill (NYM) vs. SF
Megill is the host and favored pitcher in tonight's top pitching duel. The young righty is pumping outrageous cheddar through two starts, kicking his heater up from averaging 94.7 mph in 2021 to 96.5 mph this year. Additionally, in the small sample of 20 batters, he's held left-handed batters to a .209 wOBA.
Last year, the second-year big-leaguer was eviscerated by lefties, allowing a .383 OBP, .612 SLG, and .418 wOBA. Thus, the excellent start to 2022 against lefties is promising for Megill's potential. However, since it's a small sample, I think there's enough risk to deem Megill a GPP-only pick, saying nothing of his 76 pitches in his last start, probably meaning his leash is in the 85-95 range this time out. Still, he's a high-ceiling selection.
Luis Garcia (HOU) vs. LAA
The daily fantasy platform you're playing on makes all the difference for Garcia's value, illustrated in the table above. First, Garcia isn't on my radar on DraftKings. Sadly, he's overpriced after throwing only 71 pitches in his first start.
Second, the matchup is a mixed bag. The Angels' offense has high-end talent such as Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, and Mike Trout -- if Trout's left hand feels good enough to play tonight after getting hit by a pitch yesterday.
Regardless, Garcia's talent level exceeds his tiny salary on FanDuel, even after accounting for a probable pitch-count limit of around 85 at the most. Garcia had a 3.48 ERA, 3.92 xERA, 3.91 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 26.4 K%, and 29.7 CSW% in 2021. He was a little lucky in his first start en route to holding the Diamondbacks scoreless on two hits, two walks, and one strikeout. Still, the larger body of work that includes last year is befitting of a much bigger salary than Garcia's $6,700 salary-cap figure on FanDuel.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Coors Field)
- Value: Low(FD)/Medium(DK)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.0 Runs/COL +125
Coors Field is the cream of the crop for scoring runs. Additionally, Aaron Nola hasn't shaken out of last year's funk. The righty's ERA estimators have been great. Thus, I have labeled Colorado's offense as a medium-risk stack. Regardless, they're a great stack in all game types.
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Cash Games
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -195
The Dodgers are a runaway freight train, ready to steamroll every opposing pitcher. They keep coming at pitchers, boasting remarkable high-end talent and depth. All of the projected starters have been at least five percent better than league average against righties since 2019. Further, seven projected starters have been 25% or better. I didn't list both game types above because I expect the Dodgers to be chalky. Still, I won't discourage gamers from using the Dodgers in all game types.
- Home (Nationals Park)
- Value: Low(DK)/Medium(FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPPs
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/WSH -141
Washington's lineup has a few underwhelming options. However, they also have a few studs and a great matchup on tap for tonight. Madison Bumgarner's 2.25 ERA has been smoke and mirrors. So, he's due for massive regression, making the Nationals an attractive stacking option in GPPs.
- C.J. Cron is clobbering the ball out of the chute, smashing five homers with a .486 ISO. According to Baseball Savant, out of 109 qualified hitters this year, Cron has been tied for 15th in fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity (97.2 mph).
- Trea Turner hits in the heart of the order of the Dodgers' juggernaut. He also excels in same-handed matchups.
- Unfortunately, Kris Bryant hasn't homered yet this year. Nonetheless, he has hit four doubles with a .375 OBP and 117 wRC+ in his first 40 plate appearances with the Rockies. I don't expect Nola to fix his woes dating back to last year in this trip to Coors Field, making Bryant a great pick in all game types.
- Nelson Cruz has been one of MLB's premier lefty-killers for a long time. Since 2019, he has had a .410 OBP, .327 ISO, and 176 wRC+.
- Lane Thomas has a short history of success against lefties in The Show. However, I'll gladly use him as a value play at his punt salary.
- Gavin Lux is a steal at DraftKings. He is a man on fire with a .455 OBP, .240 ISO, 184 wRC+, and two stolen bases through 33 plate appearances.
- Seth Beer is featured in this section mainly with FanDuel in mind. However, firing a few bullets on him instead of Cron in GPPs on DraftKings is fine. The left-handed-hitting rookie has ripped the cover off the ball in his cups of coffee in the bigs. He also benefits from facing Josiah Gray, owner of a .514 SLG and .360 wOBA allowed to 162 lefties since debuting for the Nationals in 2021.
- Brandon Crawford is another FanDuel value/punt. This year, the shortstop's .290 OBP, .143 ISO, and 80 wRC+ in 31 plate appearances won't get gamers excited. However, his Statcast expected stats have been much better. Finally, if Megill reverts to struggling against lefties, Crawford can make him pay.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
I'm leaning heavily on the Rockies and Dodgers on offense tonight. However, I'll also take a risk on stacking the Nationals in GPPs. Even though I've listed the Nationals as a GPP-only stack, Cruz and Thomas are viable cash game picks.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
