Yet another MLB main slate jumpstarts this week with differing start times and slate sizes between DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings’ main slate includes seven games, starting at 6:10 pm ET. Meanwhile, FanDuel’s main slate has just five games, beginning at 7:07 pm ET.
Yet another MLB main slate jumpstarts this week with differing start times and slate sizes between DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings’ main slate includes seven games, starting at 6:10 pm ET. Meanwhile, FanDuel’s main slate has just five games, beginning at 7:07 pm ET.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Paying for a top-flight pitcher -- or pitchers, at DraftKings -- is the correct move in cash games. However, the bargain arm on the table has a highly compelling case for GPP usage.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Scherzer (NYM) at STL
Scherzer is the top arm on tonight's slate. I don't object to using him in cash games on FanDuel or all game types on both platforms. However, he's a lock-button pick for cash games on DraftKings. According to FanGraphs, in three starts lasting 18.0 innings this year, he has had a 2.50 ERA, 2.95 xERA, 2.85 SIERA, 0.89 WHIP, 33.3 K%, and 31.7 CSW%.
Additionally, the Cardinals aren't an imposing matchup for righties. This year, the Red Birds have had a 97 wRC+ with a pathetic .101 ISO against right-handed hurlers. As a result, Mad Max should carve them up. Finally, Betting Pros lists the Mets as -143 favorites with a game total of 6.5 runs.
Walker Buehler (LAD) at ARI
Buehler is slightly my preferred cash games pick on FanDuel, given his steep discount from using Scherzer. Thankfully, you can use both on DraftKings. Buehler hasn't lit the world on fire to start 2022, but I don't see red flags in his underlying data that suggest prolonged mediocrity.
Thus, I'll put more stock in Buehler's 2.47 ERA, 3.08 xERA, 3.73 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, 26.0 K%, and 29.6 CSW% in 207.2 innings last year. Further, the Diamondbacks are a good matchup, and the betting info is favorable. Finally, the Dodgers are -167 favorites, and the 8.5-run over/under isn't alarming.
GPP Recommendations:
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. BOS
Berrios' 6.35 ERA, 7.62 xERA, and 4.62 SIERA in his first three starts this year have left a lot to be desired. However, his small-sample ERA is inflated by a dreadful debut in which he allowed four runs in just 0.1 innings. Since then, he's allowed four runs in two starts spanning 11.0 innings. His most recent turn was his best, holding the Red Sox to one run on eight hits, one walk, and six strikeouts in 6.0 innings.
He'll face the Red Sox again tonight. Moreover, they could be without starting hitters, depending on their vaccination status. Even if all of Boston's top hitters are in their lineup, the righty-heavy nature of the lineup plays into Berrios' hands. Since last year, the right-handed hurler has held right-handed batters to a .250 wOBA. In addition, the Blue Jays are -135 favorites, and the game's over/under is identical to Buehler's game at 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Astros have been a mid-pack offense against righties this year. However, even without Jose Altuve, Houston's offense is jam-packed with hitters who've terrorized righties since 2019. They have a matchup for righting the ship on offense tonight. Dane Dunning has had a 5.68 ERA with a 6.50 ERA in three turns this year, and he'll hand the ball off to a lousy bullpen when he's relieved.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Cash
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -167
The Dodgers have a nightly case for being stacked. Their offense is loaded. Tonight's opposition, Merrill Kelly, has been lights out through three starts, spinning a 0.59 ERA. Nevertheless, he has a 4.13 ERA with similar ERA estimators in his career. Further, Arizona's relievers have had the highest xFIP (4.86) in 2022. Therefore, I expect the Dodgers to rough up their NL West rivals tonight.
- Yordan Alvarez has been exceptionally unlucky early. The slugger's batted-ball data is otherworldly, and he's tattooed righties in his career.
- This year, Mike Trout has been his insanely good self, smacking four homers with a .357 ISO, .451 OBP, and 238 wRC+.
- Jared Walsh has excelled with the platoon advantage in his career, amassing a .372 OBP, .256 ISO, and 149 wRC+ in 583 plate appearances.
- DraftKings continues to underprice Gavin Lux. The youngster has a .375 OBP, .188 ISO, and 139 wRC+ against righties in 2022.
- Michael Brantley has raked out of the gates. He has had a .361 OBP and 150 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances this year. Additionally, he's thrived with the platoon advantage throughout his career.
- Cody Bellinger joins Lux as a blindspot for DraftKings' algorithm for player salaries. After mashing two taters yesterday, he's up to a .309 ISO, .333 OBP, and 165 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
Bellinger and Lux are no-doubt cash-game picks on DraftKings. Meanwhile, Brantley is an easy cash-game pick on FanDuel. I love the core studs, Alvarez, Trout, and Walsh, in all game types at both daily fantasy providers. I'll also use other Dodgers and Astros in my lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
