Friday’s main slate includes five games and starts at 7:05 pm ET. There are three games in the 7:00 pm ET window and two starting at 9:38 pm ET and 9:40 pm ET, respectively.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
On just a five-game slate, the pitching options are top-heavy. Unfortunately, the bottom of the barrel is light on viable alternatives. Therefore, I'm dialed in on the priciest hurlers. Thankfully, there's ample value to mine from the hitter's pool.
Friday’s main slate includes five games and starts at 7:05 pm ET. There are three games in the 7:00 pm ET window and two starting at 9:38 pm ET and 9:40 pm ET, respectively.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
On just a five-game slate, the pitching options are top-heavy. Unfortunately, the bottom of the barrel is light on viable alternatives. Therefore, I'm dialed in on the priciest hurlers. Thankfully, there's ample value to mine from the hitter's pool.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Scherzer (NYM) at WSH
Max Scherzer's the unquestionably most-talented pitcher on the slate. In addition, he's facing a mediocre or worse lineup. The 37-year-old pitcher is coming off an electrifying 2021 campaign. According to FanGraphs, he dazzled with a 2.46 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 2.90 SIERA, 0.86 WHIP, 34.1 K%, and 31.6 CSW%. As you can see, his ERA estimators supported a sub-3.00 ERA, even if his 2.46 mark outpaced his underlying numbers. Finally, according to BettingPros, the Mets are -182 favorites. As a result, he's the top cash game option in DFS tonight with a ceiling that plays perfectly in GPPs as well.
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. CIN
Scherzer is the most talented pitcher on the slate, but Charlie Morton might be the best value when factoring in salary. Morton's last year with the Rays in 2020 was disappointing, but he bounced back with aplomb in his first year back in Atlanta.
Morton spun a 3.34 ERA that aligned with his 3.32 xERA and 3.53 SIERA. The veteran righty also struck out a whopping 28.6% of the hitters he faced with a 30.9 CSW%. In other words, Morton's excellent 2021 was wholly supported by his skills and advanced metrics. The Braves are slightly bigger favorites than the previously mentioned Mets, sporting a -185 line. Obviously, that's splitting hairs between betting lines. Nevertheless, Morton is underpriced. So, he'll be my most rostered pitcher tonight.
GPP Recommendations:
Sean Manaea (SD) at ARI
Sean Manaea is notably more expensive than Morton on DraftKings and $200 cheaper on FanDuel. The 30-year-old lefty didn't match Scherzer's or Morton's strikeout upside with a solid-but-unspectacular 25.7 K% in 2021. Still, he recorded a 3.91 ERA, 4.18 xERA, 3.68 SIERA, and 1.23 WHIP, which were all solid or better. In addition, the Diamondbacks are a favorable matchup, and the Padres are -150 favorites.
Top Lineup Stacks
I'm chiefly interested in the bargain options from the Mets. They have an eye-catching implied total and a handful of hitters with punt salaries. I'll gladly gobble up value in a cheap Mets stack to offset the upcoming high-priced stacks.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -185
At first blush, Reiver Sanmartin doesn't look like an easy matchup. In two big-league starts, the rookie lefty has 11.2 innings and a 1.54 ERA under his belt. Further, he had a 3.69 ERA in the upper minors. However, the lefty's fastball averaged under 90 mph in the majors. I need to see a low-velo guy succeed for an extended time in The Show before buying into them. Atlanta's lineup has tons of power and quality hitters who can sit on Sanmartin's secondary pitches and fight off his slow fastball. Moreover, the subpar velocity leaves him almost no room for error with spotting his fastball without having it deposited in the seats.
- Home (Angel Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAA -110
The Angels scratched across only one run last night. However, Framber Valdez is a substantially better pitcher than tonight's foe, Jake Odorizzi. The 32-year-old righty is little more than an innings eater, and his below-average bat-missing ability leaves him prone to catching a beatdown from the Angels. Therefore, I expect the Angels to exorcise frustration from last night's showing on Odorizzi and light up the scoreboard tonight.
- Sadly, Mike Trout was limited to only 36 games in 2020 because of an injury. Regardless, his 190 wRC+ tells the tale of a hitter who's as demigod-like as ever.
- Shohei Ohtani was a remarkable two-way star last year. Last night, he was fantastic on the bump. However, tonight, we're going to the well for his bat. In 1,102 plate appearances against righties in his career, he has had a .362 OBP, .286 ISO, and 142 wRC+.
- The cat's out of the bag. Matt Olson is a masher in same-handed matchups. He had a .338 ISO against lefties in 2021. In addition, Olson has had a .289 ISO in same-handed matchups since 2019.
- Robinson Cano hit well in the spring after serving a full-year PED suspension in 2021. Despite opposing a southpaw, the 39-year-old lefty came out of the gates hot last night. Cano reached base three times (two singles and a walk) in four plate appearances. I'm treating him as a bingo square at his near minimum salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- I'm taking some liberties by including Marcell Ozuna in this section with a $4,000 salary on DraftKings. Behold his $2,900 salary FanDuel, though. Ozuna has had a mouthwatering .301 ISO against southpaws since 2019. So, I'm chasing power for his modest to bargain salary.
- The pricing disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel is starker for Luke Voit than for Ozuna. Sadly, Voit doesn't have the platoon advantage. However, Merrill Kelly was hammered for a .491 SLG and .356 wOBA by righties in 2021. Still, Voit's not just cheap exposure to Kelly on FanDuel; he's a talented hitter with a .241 ISO and 134 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since 2019.
- If Brandon Nimmo is out again with his neck injury, Jeff McNeil is a candidate to hit leadoff for the Mets. According to Baseball Press, McNeil occupied the top spot of New York's lineup against a righty on April 4 in spring training. The lineup was identical to the one I projected above. Even if Nimmo returns and knocks McNeil down the order, I'm content using him and his 132 wRC+ in 1,046 plate appearances against righties on his 30th birthday.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
I'm building stars and scrubs lineups tonight. It starts with a star pitcher and includes studs like Trout, Ohtani, and Olson. Squeezing in value plays and punts is a must to accommodate the gaudy salaries of the stars. In addition to the punts above, I suggest looking at some of the Friars on FanDuel and punting catcher and shortstop on DraftKings.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
