Friday’s main slate is loaded. It’s an 11-game slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Carlos Rodon was an easy pick as the top pitcher on tonight's slate. He's an excellent pick in all game types on both providers. However, Dylan Cease is a top-shelf pivot in GPPs. Behind them, Kyle Wright and MacKenzie Gore square off in a pitcher-friendly ballpark with a low game total. I like both as SP2 options on DraftKings. In addition, Wright is an enticing GPP pick on FanDuel.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Carlos Rodon (SF) at CLE
I had concerns about Rodon's health before he toed the rubber this year. He assuaged them in one fell swoop with a dominating first start for the Giants. Rodon struck out 12 Marlins in just five innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks.
According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) was up two miles per hour from his career mark last year. The results and filthy cheddar put to bed any concerns I harbored about the shoulder fatigue he endured late last year. Healthy, he's ready to keep rolling as he did in a breakout 2021 campaign before hitting the IL with shoulder fatigue. In Rodon's first 19 starts spanning 109.2 innings in 2021, he had a 2.38 ERA, 2.81 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, 36.2 K%, and 30.4 CSW%.
So, I'm not merely overreacting to Rodon's brilliant debut and chasing points. Finally, in Rodon's first start, he threw 89 pitches. Thus, he should be stretched out to a full workload.
Kyle Wright (ATL) at SD
Sadly, Wright might not yet be entirely stretched out like Rodon. Still, he threw 76 pitches in his first start. Therefore, he could exceed 90 pitches in this go-round. Further, Wright made the most of his 76 pitches, holding the Reds scoreless on two hits, one walk, and six strikeouts.
The young righty hasn't enjoyed a linear development path, hitting the skids along the way. However, his sterling game to open this year adds weight to his words about entering the year confident after pitching well in the 2021 World Series.
Looking under the hood, I'm encouraged by a drastic change to his pitch mix out of the gate. Wright threw his curve a whopping 40.8%, a far cry from his 15.4% rate for his career. After one start, it looks like the curve has overtaken his slider for top breaking ball honors in his repertoire.
The Padres crushed the Braves last night. Regardless, according to Betting Pros, the game's over/under is a pitcher-friendly 8.0 runs. It's also nearly a pick 'em. So, sign me up for Wright as a cash game SP2 on DraftKings and a viable GPP option on FanDuel.
GPP Recommendations:
Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. TB
Cease's 3.91 ERA in 2021 was only slightly better than his 4.01 ERA in 2020. However, last year was a valid breakout after his luck-fueled emergence in 2020. In fact, Cease's 3.91 ERA in 2021 was higher than his 3.65 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, and 3.57 SIERA.
Cease's lively arm helped him strike out an impressive 31.9% of the batters he faced, allowing him to work around his below-average control (9.6 BB%). The young righty's walk rate means he'll always carry some risk when he toes the rubber. Nonetheless, his strikeout rate makes him a dreamy GPP option. Like Rodon, Cease should be stretched out to nearly a full workload after throwing 79 pitches in his first start of 2020.
MacKenzie Gore (SD) vs. ATL
Happy Gore day! The rookie lefty gets the ball for the first time in The Show tonight. Sadly, he's unlikely to match the other three pitchers in this space for pitch count. According to MiLB.com, the rookie southpaw tossed only 63 pitches in his last start. Therefore, it's prudent to project him for approximately 75 pitches, give or take five.
Thankfully, that's where the bad news ends. Gore threw five scoreless innings in Triple-A to open the year, fanning seven, walking zero, and allowing only a pair of hits. The outstanding minor-league debut in 2022 follows a head-turning spring. Gore has the elite stuff to provide value at his low salary on DraftKings. However, I'm pessimistic about Gore pitching deep enough to earn a quality start, making him a less viable option on FanDuel.
There are risks associated with using any pitcher in his first big-league start. The Braves are a challenging opponent as well. Still, there's plenty to like here for embracing the volatility to use Gore in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Nine. Seven. Seven. Those numbers represent the Dodgers' run totals working backward through their previous three games. They've scored four or more runs in five of six games. Their lineup is historically talented, the implied total is juicy, and a matchup with Vladimir Gutierrez is mouthwatering.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Medium(DK)/High(FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/SEA +110
The Mariners are one of two GPP stacks I'm recommending tonight. Unfortunately, the ballpark factors at T-Mobile Park leave a lot to be desired, and Seattle hasn't opened the year swinging hot bats. However, Jake Odorizzi is JAG (just a guy). He's a classic innings-eater that strikes out hitters at a below-average clip. Since 2017, he's had a 4.14 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, and 4.52 SIERA. Coincidentally, his 4.14 ERA during that stretch also represents his second-lowest ERA in a year since 2017. As a result, I believe the M's have the upside to knock Odorizzi around tonight.
- Road (PETCO Park)
- Value: Low(FD)/Medium(DK)
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/ATL -105
First, allow me to say I'm excited to see Gore pitch tonight. Second, I touted him as a must-add pitcher in season-long leagues in the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner this week. Nevertheless, Atlanta's lineup is a massive step up from anything he's faced in the minors. Further, my gut tells me Gore will be popular in GPPs tonight on DraftKings, enhancing the appeal of leveraging his popularity by stacking against him. Finally, Gore has the goods to mow the Braves down. Obviously, I touted him above for a good reason. However, I also cautioned about the risk of using Gore. On Tuesday night, the Braves illustrated their sky-high ceiling when they tattooed lefty Patrick Corbin. If Gore stumbles, Atlanta can light up the scoreboard.
- Freddie Freeman is entrenched in the two-hole in Los Angeles's loaded lineup. And, of course, he belongs there. Since 2019, he has had a .428 OBP, .264 ISO, and 161 wRC+ against righties. Freeman has also done a great job setting the table so far with a .379 OBP in 2022.
- Jesse Winker's 80 wRC+ and bagel in the extra-base hits column this year might drive gamers away. Still, his 26.7 BB% and 10.0 K% are excellent marks, and his Statcast data is superb. So, I'll lean into his track record of rocking righties and bank on his underlying numbers in 2022, leading to a blowup soon, perhaps as soon as tonight.
- Max Muncy typically hits cleanup. So sign me up for the cleanup hitter -- or the fifth spot that he's slotted into twice -- on the Dodgers at his modest salaries on both daily fantasy sites.
- Joey Gallo is one of two players on the values/punts table that's not on any of the teams I suggested stacking. He's a steal on FanDuel in a Charmin-soft matchup with Jordan Lyles tonight. Since last year, Lyles has served up a .495 SLG and .358 wOBA to 336 left-handed batters.
- Darin Ruf is the other player in this section who's not on a team I suggest stacking. The 35-year-old is shaking his previous platoon usage after back-to-back years of proving his worth against righties. In 224 plate appearances against righties since returning to the US from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) in 2020, he has had a .379 OBP, .179 ISO, and 131 wRC+. Finally, he's hit second or third in all of San Francisco's games this year. I love Ruf in GPPs tonight.
- J.P. Crawford has hit his way up to the fifth spot in Seattle's order. Further, the left-handed-hitting shortstop has had a .344 OBP and 108 wRC+ against righties since 2019.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Dodgers offense is the backbone of my favorite cash game builds. I'll also lean heavily into them in GPPs. I didn't list the Yankees, save for Gallo, above, but the Bronx Bombers are an enticing offense to get exposure to on FanDuel. Finally, I love the Mariners stack in GPPs on both daily fantasy sites and consider the Braves worth firing a bullet or two on in GPPs on DraftKings.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
