For those of you just now dipping your toes into the murky waters of dynasty fantasy football for the first time, let me assure you that there aren’t real sharks in the water. There aren’t even venomous scorpionfish or stinging jellyfish. Most dynasty managers are just like you: They cut their teeth in redraft leagues with buddies, coworkers, uncles, and wives. You might even be starting up this new dynasty league with the same familiar cast of characters.
The startup draft will feel like that nice, broken-in catcher’s mitt of redraft. The main difference is the lens in your microscope. It isn’t prudent to live in the moment and chase one last hoorah for those stars of yesteryear. You must plan for the future. Which position has the longest shelf life of all? Everyone knows it’s quarterback, but where should you take yours?
I have long been a proponent of the Late-Round QB theory, made famous by the work of JJ Zachariason. But as the position has evolved in the NFL and for fantasy accordingly, quarterback ADP has also risen. Another leap made in fantasy quarterback values is the emergence in popularity of Superflex leagues, especially in dynasty.
For those of you just now dipping your toes into the murky waters of dynasty fantasy football for the first time, let me assure you that there aren’t real sharks in the water. There aren’t even venomous scorpionfish or stinging jellyfish. Most dynasty managers are just like you: They cut their teeth in redraft leagues with buddies, coworkers, uncles, and wives. You might even be starting up this new dynasty league with the same familiar cast of characters.
The startup draft will feel like that nice, broken-in catcher’s mitt of redraft. The main difference is the lens in your microscope. It isn’t prudent to live in the moment and chase one last hoorah for those stars of yesteryear. You must plan for the future. Which position has the longest shelf life of all? Everyone knows it’s quarterback, but where should you take yours?
I have long been a proponent of the Late-Round QB theory, made famous by the work of JJ Zachariason. But as the position has evolved in the NFL and for fantasy accordingly, quarterback ADP has also risen. Another leap made in fantasy quarterback values is the emergence in popularity of Superflex leagues, especially in dynasty.
All but one of my dynasty leagues is now Superflex, which adds a flex position to the starting roster that a second quarterback can occupy. Even in that format, where it is common for more than half of first-round picks to be QBs, you can load up a dynastic run to glory by fading signal-callers into near-oblivion.
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How Long is Too Long?
The guidelines are spelled out in its name in the same vein as other defined draft strategies. Late-round QB means you wait until the late rounds to select your quarterback(s).
For example, if the league size is the standard 12 teams, a late-round strategy would mean waiting until you were staring at the 12th quarterback to come off the board (or thereabouts). In 1QB leagues, this could very well be into the double-digit rounds. In Superflex, it might be in the third round for your first quarterback and much later for your second.
But why wait on quarterbacks at all? After all, they do score the most fantasy points of any position. The reasoning is simple. There is almost no discernible difference in scoring between QB1 and QB12 in points per game relative to other positions. The difference between Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill last season was fewer than five fantasy points per game. When going by ADP from the 2021 offseason, consensus QB1 Patrick Mahomes was only 0.6 points per game better than QB12 Jalen Hurts. There is simply more value in drafting running backs, wide receivers, and elite tight ends before pinning the tail on an anonymous donkey at quarterback.
Who Am I Waiting For?
Second and third-year quarterbacks are at all-time value prices in drafts right now. A competent dynasty manager will have their draft at least loosely drawn in their mind. The target quarterbacks who fall to these depths aren’t as ghoulish as you might imagine. Derek Carr is now reunited with his Fresno State teammate, Davante Adams, in a Josh McDaniels offense that made Mac Jones look good.
Jones’s trajectory is also rising (unlike his ADP in dynasty leagues). One quarterback riding a recent surge in popularity, but is still valued much too low, is Tua Tagovailoa. If you like Jones, you’ll love Davis Mills a full 70 picks later. His 2021 stats are virtually the same and both are 23 years old.
Tom Brady might never retire, but the real late dynasty quarterback to get late in dynasty startups is Tannehill. He was the QB8 in 2020. Derrick Henry and the Tennessee receiving corps disintegrated from injuries in 2021, and Tannehill still ended up at QB12. He is currently going outside of the top-20 quarterbacks in dynasty startups.
Don’t Panic
To those of you who might try this strategy this year, it’s completely normal to get QB FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Remember, as your opponents lock in those 20 fantasy points per game at quarterback, the running back, wide receiver, or tight end you take instead won’t be too far behind. When you finally spend a pick at quarterback, the chances are strong that he will also average around 20 fantasy points per game. Your opponent will be scraping the bottom of the tank for players who will be fighting for scraps in their offense by that point.
Use this opportunity also to create value-adding stacks to your roster. Stacking is a potent lineup enhancer, especially if you roster the top weapon on a particular team. Many of the best receivers in the NFL are paired with quarterbacks whose ADP is well below the top-12. One of my most successful late-round quarterback drafts also formed an all-world stack (two of them, actually).
I let my 1QB roster fill up with studs like Travis Kelce and Julio Jones back in 2018 before finally drafting quarterbacks at the turn of the 10th and 11th rounds. I went with Matt Ryan and first-year starter Patrick Mahomes. After two weeks of satisfactory production from Ryan, I switched to Mahomes and never looked back. Every offseason has a few quarterbacks who emerge from the late rounds to vault savvy-drafting dynasty managers to championship Valhalla. In 2019, the late-round score was Josh Allen. In 2020, it was Justin Herbert.
Your startup drafts will all take very different shapes. Draft position and varying personalities amongst opponents will offer infinite possibilities. Dynasty is the definition of playing the long game, but don’t lose sight of the real goal: winning. The winning strategy is the one that ends up winning. There isn’t a magic key or glossary on how to win at dynasty fantasy football. When it comes to quarterbacks in a startup draft, sometimes it is better to be fashionably late and show up to the party with better drinks and appetizers.
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Bo McBrayer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bo, check out his archive and follow him @Bo_McBigTime.
