It’s hard not to think of JJ Zacharison when the term Late-Round QB is brought up. JJ made the strategy mainstream several years ago when he hypothesized that taking a quarterback early wasn’t worth the opportunity cost when drafters aren’t always good at identifying the quarterbacks who will separate from the field. Whilst the quarterback position has changed quite substantially over the last ten years, there are elements of the original theory that still hold strong for 2022.
Looking back to 2021 at the top six quarterbacks, we can see that only two had an advance rate above average (16.67%).
Whilst several of these quarterbacks who underperformed dealt with injuries, it would be naive of us to rule out injuries happening in the future, and in best ball, we should be building rosters that can cope with injuries wherever possible. Unfortunately, the opportunity cost of taking such an early quarterback can often be the kiss of the death to a roster should they get injured. Looking back at historical data on FFPC best ball teams, only four quarterbacks with an ADP inside the first five rounds have had an above-average (8.6%) win rate during any season dating back to 2017.
In previous years we've seen players like Lamar Jackson (QB - BAL) and Josh Allen (QB - BUF) become cheat codes at the position when taken with later-round picks, but their success has led to drafters becoming savvier in general. Last year both Justin Fields (QB - CHI) and Trey Lance (QB - SF) were heading into the season heavily expected to sit for a considerable amount of time, but drafters kept their ADP hovering between the late ninth to early 11th round throughout most of the off-season. The mere idea of the dual-threat quarterback is enough for people to be frightened to miss out on a prospect, and in both Lance and Fields' cases, it failed to work out.
With the classic Late-Round QB-type prospects being driven higher up, we have to expand the idea of what a 2022 Late-Round QB looks like. In best ball, it will never be enough to draft just one quarterback. Instead, we're looking for a collection of quarterbacks that can give us the highest possible score at the position without draining our draft capital which could be spent elsewhere. The true value of the Late-Round QB in best ball appears to be in landing on the perfect QB2 or QB3 of your roster. Below are four of the 2021 quarterbacks who had top ten advance rates at the position and were all drafted from late round 12 onwards.
Whilst all these players advanced at an above-average rate, drafters who waited until round 12 onwards to take their first quarterback saw below-average success in advancing and only a tiny percentage of those squeaked through to the finals.
It becomes clear that Late-Round QB wasn't a very successful tactic in 2021, but these later-round quarterbacks still had the power to complement and amplify your rosters into a newer version of the strategy. Coming into 2021 my favorite quarterback to pair with Trey Lance or Justin Fields was Kirk Cousins (QB - MIN). Cousins was playing for a team with a poor passing defense that would give up points and had an excellent early schedule against defenses that included the Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Lions, and Panthers. If Cousins could carry my Lance/Fields teams through that period, then I was confident that by the time my rookies started I would be off to a strong start. Part of that theory worked out, and it's the approach I will be continuing with going forward.
If you plan on drafting your first quarterback beyond 100 in ADP, you need a clear plan for the options that will complement them. If I take Justin Fields at 121.5, then I'd be happy to come back in the next round and pair him with Matt Ryan (QB - IND) before grabbing my final QB3 in the 170-180 range where Mitch Trubisky (QB - PIT), Jared Goff (QB - DET), and Davis Mills (QB - HOU) reside. Two-quarterback builds are no longer viable this late in the draft and three are risky and unlikely to work, as we've already discussed with last year's data. Instead, these options should be looked at as ways to complement your earlier picks.
If you draft an elite quarterback in the early rounds, you'll need them to pay off week in and week out for your roster to succeed and as such, the type of late-round pairing you should look for is the solid and steady starter who might give you a lower score when called upon but will keep your team from putting up a zero that week. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN), and Mac Jones (QB - NE) all look to be good choices this year for this tactic. Below I have outlined a group I would look to pair with the elite group, where I'd be looking for two quarterbacks in total, and then the second tier where I'd predominantly look to add a third quarterback to round out my room later on after adding one of these.
As ever in best ball, being fluid with our thinking in drafts is essential. Keeping an eye on our opponent's builds, specifically at the quarterback position, in this case, will help us to determine how long we can wait. If you're struggling to decide on a quarterback in the later rounds, don't be afraid to reach slightly to complete a stack. The cost of reaching on ADP can be outweighed by the value of the stack.
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