Sometimes those first-round running backs are too good to turn your back on, and rather than fading Jonathan Taylor at the 1.01, it makes sense to throw your anchor overboard in round one or two and feel safe in the knowledge that your ship is attached to a high-upside, high floor player. After these first selections, an Anchor RB drafter will favor wide receivers in the first six rounds but typically end up with one more running back around rounds five to six.

While Zero RB and Robust RB are extreme strategies and can be polarising topics producing extreme results in one way or another, Hero RB sounds cool and appeals to the masses more often because it allows for more balanced starts to drafts. Zero RB requires a wide-receiver-heavy start, and Robust RB involves focusing heavily on running backs. Strategies that can put the fear amongst the uninitiated. Meanwhile, with Hero RB, you’re free to grab a stud running back and build out your roster with wide receivers.

Hero RB sometimes has its definition eased slightly to suit the builds people are working with, occasionally being renamed as Anchor RB or Modified-Hero RB and occasionally loosening the constraints of when certain players are taken. Still, for this article and the definition we’re following, we’re talking about a running back taken with the first two rounds and then no more until round six. One of my favorite benefits of taking this approach is that it allows us to bypass the running back dead zone of rounds 3-6 for the most part. Backs in this range have a habit of disappointing, and Jack Miller has written extensively on how running backs in this section had a below-expectation win rate in best-ball formats over the last six years. Once the draft progresses past the sixth round, the difference in wide receiver and running back scoring becomes much closer. The chart below shows PPR PPG finishes in 2021 for wide receivers and running backs. 2022 ADP currently sees the RB24 going off the board around the start of round seven when the WR36 also gets drafted. As we can see based on last year’s data, the difference in scoring at this point is very minimal, and it’s a good time to start adding more running backs to your roster.

Through six rounds, you should now have a roster made up of a stud running back, who is a three-down pass-catching point-scoring machine, and then a bunch of great wide receivers along with the flexibility to add an elite tight end or quarterback without breaking from the strategy at hand. Now that running backs have become more attractive again, it’s time to grab a couple quickly. In 2021 this was an area of the draft where you could pick up James Conner and Leonard Fournette, who were standout league winners when all was said and done, but thanks to FFPC Classic’s best ball data, which goes back to 2017, we can get a better idea of how this strategy has paid off over time. The table below shows that taking a running back in the first two rounds, then a second one after round five, and a third before round eight would give our rosters a bigger chance to succeed than if we waited until past round eight to select a third.

Hero RB Builds 2017-2021

 
While the difference between 8.80% and 10.60% might seem small when the average win rate is 8.30%, we’re seeing an increase of almost 25%.

FFPC win rate is 8.3%, and the Underdog advance rate is 16.7%. The table below shows the success rates for teams who took a Hero RB approach and the total amount of running backs they selected.

2021 Advance rate/Win rates for Underdog and FFPC when using Hero RB Builds only

 
It becomes evident that using between five and six roster spots on running backs proved the most optimal. While FFPC uses 20 roster spots and Underdog uses only 18, the difference is minimal, allowing us to use roughly 25-30% of our available picks on running backs in total. Taking this approach can still allow for a balanced amount of receivers and space to pick and choose how you wish to approach tight end and quarterback.

Below we can see the three most commonly used running back strategies and their average success rate in 2021. As well as this, we have the success rate for the most widely used builds within this structure, i.e., how many running backs were most often selected when using a Hero RB strategy.

 
It’s tough to look at that table and come away from it with any conclusions that don’t say Hero RB worked best of all the micro strategies in 2021. Turning our eyes towards 2022, we should remember that best ball is a young game, and relying on data from previous years depends on the upcoming season playing out similarly. Based on current ADP, it’s not hard to envisage some of the examples of Hero RB builds I’ve laid out below.

 
When entering drafts, it’s best to remain open-minded to the way we navigate the draft board and be ready to hoover up players who drop to us. As a strategy, Hero RB will be one that I look to utilize often in 2022, based on its history of a strong win rate. If I can leave half of my drafts with a roster fitting this theory, then I’ll be satisfied, but as ever, all drafts are different, and by staying cognizant of what works best within strategy structures, we can increase our chances of winning.

Much of the raw data in this article has come from Rotoviz’s FFPC Roster Construction Explorer or 4for4’s Underdog Roster Construction Explorer.

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